Total factor productivity and sources of long-term growth in Indian agriculture:

This paper assesses total factor productivity (TFP) growth in India, examines the sources of productivity growth, including public and private investment, and estimates the rates of return to public investments in agriculture. The results show that significant TFP growth in the Indian crops sector was produced by investments primarily in research but also in extension, markets, and irrigation. The high rates of return, particularly to public agricultural research and extension, indicate that the Government of India is not overinvesting in agricultural research and investment, but rather that current levels of public investment could be profitably expanded.Crops Economic aspects., Government spending policy India., Agricultural research Economic aspects.,

Technology -- Climate Interactions in the Green Revolution in India

This paper present a model of the Green Revolution in India, in which the development and diffusion of HYVs, the expansion of irrigation and the expansion of multiple-cropping are treated as endogenous responses to more basic investments in agricultural technology and infrastructure, as well as to climate and edaphic endowments. We incorporate explicit climate-technology interactions in the model, in order to identify climate effects on the diffusion of HYVs, irrigation and multiple- cropping, and on Net Revenue to agriculture. We find that climate affects technology development and diffusion, and that technology development and diffusion affect the impacts of climate on agricultural productivity in India.Green Revolution, India, HYV, Rice, Wheat, Climate, Agricultural Research

Abundance of Cereal Aphids (Homoptera: Aphididae) and Their Predators in Spring Wheat-Alfalfa Intercrops Under Different Crop Management Intensities

Natural infestations of cereal aphids and abundance of their predators were compared from 1990 through 1993 among plots of intercropped spring wheat and alfalfa grown under high, intermediate, or low crop management intensity (CMI). CMI treatments differed in the amount of nitrogen fertilizer applied and herbicide used and in the rigor of tillage operations. Cereal aphids (primarily Rhopalosiphum padi, Sitobion avenae, and Schizaphis graminum) collectively infested a mean of 0 to 5.9 of 15 wheat tillers sam­pled per plot on various dates from 1990 through 1993, but aphid infestation did not vary by CM!. Seven taxa of aphid predators predominated: Nabis spp., Chrysoperla spp., Coleomegilla maculata, Hippodamia convergens, H. tredecimpunctata tibialis, H. parenthesis, and Coccinella septempunctata. Coccinella transversoguttata richardsoni, a species in decline in eastern South Dakota, was not collected. Nabids were generally the most abundant predatory taxon. In 1992, coccinellid adults were more abundant in high than low CMI plots. In 1993, H. tredecimpunctata tibialis adults were significantly more abundant in high CMI plots on the first three sampling dates but became more abundant in the low and intermediate CMI plots by the fifth sampling date. Regressions between the number of aphid-infested tillers and abundance of some predator taxa were significant in 1990, 1991, and 1992. In 1990, most regressions showed that counts of predators (except Chrysoperla spp. adults) were inversely proportional to aphid infestation levels, whereas significant regressions in 1991 and 1992 showed that the abundances of predators were weakly proportional to aphid infestation levels. Adjusted r2 values for all significant regressions ranged from 0.07 to 0.27. Relationships between crop management, cereal aphid infestation, and aphidophagous predators are discussed

Agricultural research and productivity growth in India:

India's investments in agricultural research, extension, and irrigation have made it one of the largest publicly funded systems in the world. But some policymakers who perceive that the benefits to research may be declining are advocating a cut back on public spending on research. This research report, which examines the effects of research and development on productivity in India, finds that India is still benefiting from these investments. The main sources of agricultural productivity growth in India during 1956–87 were public agricultural research and extension; expansion of irrigated area and rural infrastructure and improvement in human capital were also important contributors. The report also shows that the public benefits from private research can be sub stantial, indicating that private firms capture only part of the real value of improved inputs through higher prices. Private agricultural research accounted for more than 10 per cent of growth of total facto productivity (TFP) during 1956–87, and in 1966–75, when India was more open to foreign technology, private research contributed 22 per cent of productivity gowth. Industrial policy and technology policy, including intellectual property rights policy, will require careful evaluation and reform in order to encourage private investment in agriculture. Even so, Pray and Rosegrant argue that barriers to technology transfer should be removed in order to stimulate technology transfer and growth. Nevertheless, public investment in agricultural research will likely retain its primary role. Contrary to concerns that growth in TFP has decreased over time, the report finds that during 1977–87, the period when the results in regions that adopted high-yielding varieties early on could be expected to taper off, TFP growth was 50 per cent higher than before the Green Revolution and 17 per cent higher than in the early years of the Green Revolution, indicating that gains are far from over. The rates of return to public agricultural research are high, and it appears that the government is under investing in agricultural research. Expanding public investment in research and extension would lead to even greater gains." (Forward by Per Pinstrup-Andersen)Agricultural research India., Agricultural productivity India., Agricultural policies,

TECHNICAL CHANGE AND AGRICULTURAL TRADE: THREE EXAMPLES (SUGARCANE, BANANAS, AND RICE)

The purpose of this paper is to examine three cases which provide some insight into the character of international transmission of technical change and its economic impacts and implications. These cases focus on three separate commodities, sugarcane, bananas, and rice. Each case presents different facets of the international movement of technological innovation.International Relations/Trade, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies,

Exponential anisotropy of solar cosmic rays

On 16 February 1984 a flare on the Sun's invisible disk produced a large, highly anisotropic solar particle event. A technique, in which interplanetary scattering parameters are determined purely from the form of the particle anisotropy, is applied to energetic particle data from neutron monitors and the ICE spacecraft

Green Revolution Counterfactuals

In this paper, we conduct two "counterfactual" simulations for the 30-year period 1970-2000-the first holding 1970 crop genetic improvements (CGI) constant and the second presuming the International Agricultural Research Center (IARC) system had not been built. Both these counterfactuals apply to developing countries only. The core estimates on which the counterfactuals are based include country fixed effects , and the key estimates are for the Dietary Energy Sufficiency (DES) equation. DES affects birth rates, death rates, child mortality rates and malnutrition rates, making it possible to "endogenize" population growth in developing countries, in the counterfactuals. Reduced DES levels (from reduced CGI contributions) will lead to more births, more deaths and more child deaths and higher levels of malnutrition. The key technology variables that determine DES are the number of agricultural scientists per million hectares of cropland, the average years of schooling of adult males (over 25), and the level of Green Revolution Modern Varieties (GRMV) adoption. Our results show striking contrasts between the historical record and the alternative counterfactuals. The worst outcome is that without any Green Revolution Technologies or an IARC system to support it, which results in holding technological advancements constant at the 1970 level is a marginal improvement, leading to much higher prices over time, as agricultural production struggles to keep up with food demand in those countries. The endogenous feedback effects of population show the importance of nutrition and education, and argue strongly in favor of those factors playing a significant role in the improvement of human well-being that has been observed since the start of the Green Revolution to present.Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies,

Abundance of Cereal Aphids (Homoptera: Aphididae) and Their Predators in Spring Wheat-Alfalfa Intercrops Under Different Crop Management Intensities

Natural infestations of cereal aphids and abundance of their predators were compared from 1990 through 1993 among plots of intercropped spring wheat and alfalfa grown under high, intermediate, or low crop management intensity (CMI). CMI treatments differed in the amount of nitrogen fertilizer applied and herbicide used and in the rigor of tillage operations. Cereal aphids (primarily Rhopalosiphum padi, Sitobion avenae, and Schizaphis graminum) collectively infested a mean of 0 to 5.9 of 15 wheat tillers sam­pled per plot on various dates from 1990 through 1993, but aphid infestation did not vary by CM!. Seven taxa of aphid predators predominated: Nabis spp., Chrysoperla spp., Coleomegilla maculata, Hippodamia convergens, H. tredecimpunctata tibialis, H. parenthesis, and Coccinella septempunctata. Coccinella transversoguttata richardsoni, a species in decline in eastern South Dakota, was not collected. Nabids were generally the most abundant predatory taxon. In 1992, coccinellid adults were more abundant in high than low CMI plots. In 1993, H. tredecimpunctata tibialis adults were significantly more abundant in high CMI plots on the first three sampling dates but became more abundant in the low and intermediate CMI plots by the fifth sampling date. Regressions between the number of aphid-infested tillers and abundance of some predator taxa were significant in 1990, 1991, and 1992. In 1990, most regressions showed that counts of predators (except Chrysoperla spp. adults) were inversely proportional to aphid infestation levels, whereas significant regressions in 1991 and 1992 showed that the abundances of predators were weakly proportional to aphid infestation levels. Adjusted r2 values for all significant regressions ranged from 0.07 to 0.27. Relationships between crop management, cereal aphid infestation, and aphidophagous predators are discussed

Heliospheric Transport of Neutron-Decay Protons

We report on new simulations of the transport of energetic protons originating from the decay of energetic neutrons produced in solar flares. Because the neutrons are fast-moving but insensitive to the solar wind magnetic field, the decay protons are produced over a wide region of space, and they should be detectable by current instruments over a broad range of longitudes for many hours after a sufficiently large gamma-ray flare. Spacecraft closer to the Sun are expected to see orders-of magnitude higher intensities than those at the Earth-Sun distance. The current solar cycle should present an excellent opportunity to observe neutron-decay protons with multiple spacecraft over different heliographic longitudes and distances from the Sun.Comment: 12 pages, 4 figures, to be published in special issue of Solar Physic