Using random forests to diagnose aviation turbulence

mospheric turbulence poses a significant hazard to aviation, with severe encounters costing airlines millions of dollars per year in compensation, aircraft damage, and delays due to required post-event inspections and repairs. Moreover, attempts to avoid turbulent airspace cause flight delays and en route deviations that increase air traffic controller workload, disrupt schedules of air crews and passengers and use extra fuel. For these reasons, the Federal Aviation Administration and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration have funded the development of automated turbulence detection, diagnosis and forecasting products. This paper describes a methodology for fusing data from diverse sources and producing a real-time diagnosis of turbulence associated with thunderstorms, a significant cause of weather delays and turbulence encounters that is not well-addressed by current turbulence forecasts. The data fusion algorithm is trained using a retrospective dataset that includes objective turbulence reports from commercial aircraft and collocated predictor data. It is evaluated on an independent test set using several performance metrics including receiver operating characteristic curves, which are used for FAA turbulence product evaluations prior to their deployment. A prototype implementation fuses data from Doppler radar, geostationary satellites, a lightning detection network and a numerical weather prediction model to produce deterministic and probabilistic turbulence assessments suitable for use by air traffic managers, dispatchers and pilots. The algorithm is scheduled to be operationally implemented at the National Weather Service's Aviation Weather Center in 2014. Document type: Articl

Radar Differential Phase Signatures of Ice Orientation for the Prediction of Lightning Initiation and Cessation

The majority of lightning-related casualties typically occur during thunderstorm initiation (e.g., first flash) or dissipation (e.g., last flash). The physics of electrification and lightning production during thunderstorm initiation is fairly well understood. As such, the literature includes a number of studies presenting various radar techniques (using reflectivity and, if available, other dual-polarimetric parameters) for the anticipation of initial electrification and first lightning flash. These radar techniques have shown considerable skill at forecasting first flash. On the other hand, electrical processes and lightning production during thunderstorm dissipation are not nearly as well understood and few, if any, successful techniques have been developed to anticipate the last flash and subsequent cessation of lightning. One promising approach involves the use of dual-polarimetric radar variables to infer the presence of oriented ice crystals in lightning producing storms. In the absence of strong vertical electric fields, ice crystals fall with their largest (semi-major) axis in the horizontal associated with gravitational and aerodynamic forces. In thunderstorms, strong vertical electric fields (100-200 kV m(sup -1)) have been shown to orient small (less than 2 mm) ice crystals such that their semi-major axis is vertical (or nearly vertical). After a lightning flash, the electric field is typically relaxed and prior radar research suggests that ice crystals rapidly resume their preferred horizontal orientation. In active thunderstorms, the vertical electric field quickly recovers and the ice crystals repeat this cycle of orientation for each nearby flash. This change in ice crystal orientation from primarily horizontal to vertical during the development of strong vertical electric fields prior to a lightning flash forms the physical basis for anticipating lightning initiation and, potentially, cessation. Research has shown that radar reflectivity (Z) and other co-polar back-scattering radar measurements like differential reflectivity (Z(sub dr)) typically measured by operational dual-polarimetric radars are not sensitive to these changes in ice crystal orientation. However, prior research has demonstrated that oriented ice crystals cause significant propagation effects that can be routinely measured by most dual-polarimetric radars from X-band (3 cm) to S-band (10 cm) wavelengths using the differential propagation phase shift (often just called differential phase, phi(sub dp)) or its range derivative, the specific differential phase (K(sub dp)). Advantages of the differential phase include independence from absolute or relative power calibration, attenuation, differential attenuation and relative insensitivity to ground clutter and partial beam occultation effects (as long as the signal remains above noise). In research mode, these sorts of techniques have been used to anticipate initial cloud electrification, lightning initiation, and cessation. In this study, we develop a simplified model of ice crystal size, shape, orientation, dielectric, and associated radar scattering and propagation effects in order to simulate various idealized scenarios of ice crystals responding to a hypothetical electric field and their dual-polarimetric radar signatures leading up to lightning initiation and particularly cessation. The sensitivity of the K(sub dp) ice orientation signature to various ice properties and radar wavelength will be explored. Since K(sub dp) is proportional to frequency in the Rayleigh- Gans scattering regime, the ice orientation signatures should be more obvious at higher (lower) frequencies (wavelengths). As a result, simulations at radar wavelengths from 10 cm down to 1 cm (Ka-band) will be conducted. Resonance effects will be considered using the T-matrix method. Since most K(sub dp) Vbased observations have been shown at S-band, we will present ice orientation signatures from C-band (UAH/NASA ARMOR) and X-bd (UAH MAX) dual-polarimetric radars located in Northern Alabama. Issues related to optimal radar scanning for the detection of oriented ice will be discussed. Preliminary suggestions on how these differential phase signatures of oriented ice could contribute to lightning initiation and cessation algorithms will be presented

The New Weather Radar for America's Space Program in Florida: A Temperature Profile Adaptive Scan Strategy

A new weather radar is being acquired for use in support of America s space program at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, NASA Kennedy Space Center, and Patrick AFB on the east coast of central Florida. This new radar replaces the modified WSR-74C at Patrick AFB that has been in use since 1984. The new radar is a Radtec TDR 43-250, which has Doppler and dual polarization capability. A new fixed scan strategy was designed to best support the space program. The fixed scan strategy represents a complex compromise between many competing factors and relies on climatological heights of various temperatures that are important for improved lightning forecasting and evaluation of Lightning Launch Commit Criteria (LCC), which are the weather rules to avoid lightning strikes to in-flight rockets. The 0 C to -20 C layer is vital since most generation of electric charge occurs within it and so it is critical in evaluating Lightning LCC and in forecasting lightning. These are two of the most important duties of 45 WS. While the fixed scan strategy that covers most of the climatological variation of the 0 C to -20 C levels with high resolution ensures that these critical temperatures are well covered most of the time, it also means that on any particular day the radar is spending precious time scanning at angles covering less important heights. The goal of this project is to develop a user-friendly, Interactive Data Language (IDL) computer program that will automatically generate optimized radar scan strategies that adapt to user input of the temperature profile and other important parameters. By using only the required scan angles output by the temperature profile adaptive scan strategy program, faster update times for volume scans and/or collection of more samples per gate for better data quality is possible, while maintaining high resolution at the critical temperature levels. The temperature profile adaptive technique will also take into account earth curvature and refraction when geo-locating the radar beam (i.e., beam height and arc distance), including non-standard refraction based on the user-input temperature profile. In addition to temperature profile adaptivity, this paper will also summarize the other requirements for this scan strategy program such as detection of low-level boundaries, detection of anvil clouds, reducing the Cone Of Silence, and allowing for times when deep convective clouds will not occur. The adaptive technique will be carefully compared to and benchmarked against the new fixed scan strategy. Specific environmental scenarios in which the adaptive scan strategy is able to optimize and improve coverage and resolution at critical heights, scan time, and/or sample numbers relative to the fixed scan strategy will be presented

Developing Lightning Prediction Tools for the CCAFS Dual-Polarimetric Radar

NASA Marshall Space Flight Center and the University of Alabama Huntsville are collaborating with the 45th Weather Squadron (45WS) to develop improved lightning prediction capabilities for the new C-band dual-polarimetric weather radar being acquired for use by 45WS and launch weather forecasters at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS). In particular, these algorithms will focus on lightning onset, cessation and combined lightning-radar applications for convective winds assessment. Research using radar reflectivity (Z) data for prediction of lightning onset has been extensively discussed in the literature and subsequently applied by launch weather forecasters as it pertains to lightning nowcasting. Currently the forecasters apply a relatively straight forward but effective temperature-Z threshold algorithm for assessing the likelihood of lightning onset in a given storm. In addition, a layered VIL above the freezing level product is used as automated guidance for the onset of lightning. Only limited research and field work has been conducted on lightning cessation using Z and vertically-integrated Z for determining cessation. Though not used operationally vertically-integrated Z (basis for VIL) has recently shown promise as a tool for use in nowcasting lightning cessation. The work discussed herein leverages and expands upon these and similar reflectivity-threshold approaches via the application/addition of over two decades of polarimetric radar research focused on distinct multi-parameter radar signatures of ice/mixed-phase initiation and ice-crystal orientation in highly electrified convective clouds. Specifically, our approach is based on numerous previous studies that have observed repeatable patterns in the behavior of the vertical hydrometeor column as it relates to the temporal evolution of differential reflectivity and depolarization (manifested in either LDR or p(sub hv)), development of in-situ mixed and ice phase microphysics, electric fields, and ensuing lightning in the sub-tropical/tropical convection typical of the southeastern U.S., Maritime Continent, and southwestern Amazon. The polarimetric signatures detected in this setting provide a basis for automated 3-D detection of hydrometeor types in fuzzy logic hydrometeor identification algorithms (HID). Our working hypothesis is that improvement in lightning onset warning lead time and specificity for a given storm, relative to application of a Z-threshold algorithm, should arise as a consequence of the ability of dual-polarimetric radar to unambiguously detect and identify (through HID algorithms) the updraft elevation of rain-water cores above the freezing level and subsequent onset of drop freezing, riming, and robust mixed phase processes leading to significant charge separation and lightning. This type of algorithm, though dependent on the quality of the polarimetric data should be less susceptible to variable Z-calibration that can impact a given Z-threshold approach. To facilitate development of the algorithm while the 45WS dual-pol radar is in its current test stages and to evaluate the impact of polarimetric data quality (e.g., modified scan parameters and sampling) on the ensuing algorithms, we are using the ARMOR C-band dual-pol radar in Huntsville combined with N. Alabama LMA data and ARMOR HID algorithms [NCAR algorithm modified for application at C-band] in a testbed fashion. For lightning cessation we are revisiting the application of differential propagation phase variables for the monitoring of ice crystal alignment driven by in-cloud electric fields combined with metrics of ice water path (i.e., vertically integrated reflectivity). Importantly it should be noted that this approach is still very much a research topic and as such, we will explore operational applications that involve radar frequencies other than C-Band by using the UAH MAX X-band dual-pol radar in slow staring modes

Developing Dual Polarization Applications For 45th Weather Squadron's (45 WS) New Weather Radar: A Cooperative Project With The National Space Science and Technology Center (NSSTC)

A new weather radar is being acquired for use in support of America s space program at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, NASA Kennedy Space Center, and Patrick AFB on the east coast of central Florida. This new radar includes dual polarization capability, which has not been available to 45 WS previously. The 45 WS has teamed with NSSTC with funding from NASA Marshall Spaceflight Flight Center to improve their use of this new dual polarization capability when it is implemented operationally. The project goals include developing a temperature profile adaptive scan strategy, developing training materials, and developing forecast techniques and tools using dual polarization products. The temperature profile adaptive scan strategy will provide the scan angles that provide the optimal compromise between volume scan rate, vertical resolution, phenomena detection, data quality, and reduced cone-of-silence for the 45 WS mission. The mission requirements include outstanding detection of low level boundaries for thunderstorm prediction, excellent vertical resolution in the atmosphere electrification layer between 0 C and -20 C for lightning forecasting and Lightning Launch Commit Criteria evaluation, good detection of anvil clouds for Lightning Launch Commit Criteria evaluation, reduced cone-of-silence, fast volume scans, and many samples per pulse for good data quality. The training materials will emphasize the appropriate applications most important to the 45 WS mission. These include forecasting the onset and cessation of lightning, forecasting convective winds, and hopefully the inference of electrical fields in clouds. The training materials will focus on annotated radar imagery based on products available to the 45 WS. Other examples will include time sequenced radar products without annotation to simulate radar operations. This will reinforce the forecast concepts and also allow testing of the forecasters. The new dual polarization techniques and tools will focus on the appropriate applications for the 45 WS mission. These include forecasting the onset of lightning, the cessation of lightning, convective winds, and hopefully the inference of electrical fields in clouds. This presentation will report on the results achieved so far in the project

Parametrisierung der Statistik von konvektiven Niederschlagsfeldern durch inverse Modellierung Endbericht

A structural analysis of horizontal compartments in convective precipitation fields for northern Germany showed that, apart from inhomogeneous and non-classifiable patterns, there are three preferred structures, i.e. isolated compartments, compartment clusters and compartment bands with different angles to the normal band. Although these structures are clearly identifiable, they do not occur separately but simultaneously, with variations in the course of a day. In the coastal region, the additional effect of land-sea-wind circulation tends to enhance the clustering effect. In case of large-scale flow from sea to shore, the influence of the coast is reflected in enhanced clouding.Eine Strukturanalyse der horizontalen Zellenanordnung in konvektiven Niederschlagsfeldern fuer den Bereich Norddeutschland hat gezeigt, dass sich neben inhomogenen und nicht klassifizierbaren Anordnungen drei bevorzugte Strukturen ausbilden. Diese sind einzelne isolierte Zellen, Cluster aus mehreren Zellen und in Baendern angeordnete Zellen, wobei die Ausrichtung der Bandorientierung zur Ausbreitungsrichtung und die Zugrichtung der Zellen zur Bandnormalen unterschiedliche Winkel annehmen. Auch wenn die Strukturen klar identifiziert werden koennen, treten sie doch nicht ausschliesslich und flaechendeckend im Beobachtungsgebiet sondern meist zusammen auf. Auch kann sich ihr Auftreten im Tagesverlauf aendern. Im Kuestenbereich stellt sich haeufig durch eine zusaetzliche Land-See-Wind-Zirkulation eine verstaerkte Verclusterung ein. Bei grossraeumiger Anstroemung vom Meer ist der Einfluss der Kueste durch verstaerkte Wolkenbildung zu erkennen. (orig.)SIGLEAvailable from TIB Hannover: F02B915 / FIZ - Fachinformationszzentrum Karlsruhe / TIB - Technische InformationsbibliothekBundesministerium fuer Bildung und Forschung, Berlin (Germany)DEGerman