A Representative Matched Cross-section Survey for Austria - Measuring Worker Flow Dynamics with the Austrian Labour Force Survey

While worker flow analysis has grown in importance in many countries, Austria still lacks a specific longitudinal dataset as a prerequisite to perform similar analyses. For this reason, this article provides a coherent procedure to construct a longitudinal dataset based on the rotational panel structure of the Austrian quarterly LFS from 2004 to 2014. The procedure, which is available for researcher, is grounded on the discussion of several related and important issues inherent in constructing this sort of longitudinal data: First, it deals with the construction of the quarterly-matched dataset and the quality-of-measurement of several labour market variables. Second, the paper analyses non-response as a sample selection process, and shows that the selected (quarterly-matched) dataset causes biased estimates of worker flows. Third, the article proposes an iterative raking procedure to obtain survey weights as a bias-correcting device for any future analysis. Based on these adjustments, we present unbiased time-series of worker flows and transition rates, and conclude that the employment-unemployment margin is highly sensitive to economic shocks and that the Austrian labour market is additionally shaped by large movements within the participation margin. (authors' abstract)Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Serie

The predictive power of leading economic indicators: An analysis in time and frequency domain

In den letzten Jahren gewannen konjunkturelle Vorlaufindikatoren immer stärker an Gewicht. Sowohl in medialer als auch wissenschaftlicher Hinsicht sind sie zu wichtigen Werkzeugen für die Erstellung von Wirtschaftsprognosen geworden. Die Frage ob und wie gut konjunkturelle Vorlaufindikatoren wirklich zum besseren Verständnis zukünftiger Ereignisse beitragen können, ist allerdings weitgehend unerforscht. Dieser Umstand liefert die Motivation zur Analyse der Prognosefähigkeit von ausgewählten Indikatoren um dadurch die Sinnhaftigkeit ihrer Erstellung genauer zu hinterfragen. In der vorliegenden Diplomarbeit werden einige der wichtigsten Vorlaufindikatoren im europäischen Raum (Ifo Index, Konsumentenvertrauen und DAX) erläutert und analysiert. Mittels verschiedener statistischer Modelle wird getestet ob ein kausaler Zusammenhang zwischen den jeweiligen Vorlaufindikatoren und der Produktionsleistung innerhalb der Volkswirtschaft besteht. Um die Kausalitätsfrage zu beantworten werden zunächst gängige Zeitreihenmodelle (time domain) verwendet. Dabei wird das Konzept der sogenannten Granger-Kausalität auf die Fragestellung der Prognosefähigkeit von konjunkturellen Vorlaufindikatoren angewandt. Im zweiten Teil der Arbeit werden zusätzlich Methoden der Spektralanalyse herangezogen, Diese ermöglichen es den Zusammenhang zwischen konjunkturellen Vorlaufindikatoren und Produktion über verschiedene Frequenzintervalle zu bestimmen (frequency domain). Dadurch soll genauer untersucht werden, in welchen Frequenzkomponenten der Vorlaufindikatoren nützliche Informationen für die Erklärung zukünftiger wirtschaftlicher Entwicklungen enthalten sind.In recent years leading economic indicators have become more and more important. Nowadays, the entire media landscape follows the development of these measures and their information content is often used by economists whenever future predictions are needed. Despite the fact that leading economic indicators are heavily utilized, their real predictive power is almost uninvestigated. This provides the motivation for analysing whether leading economic indicators are really useful tools for forecasting the upcoming economic development. The present diploma thesis covers and analyses some of the most important leading indicators in Europe (Ifo Index, Consumer Confidence and German Stock Index). Various statistical methods are used in order to test if there is a link between these measures and the upcoming production within the economy. In the first part of the analysis the well-known time series models are implemented. In the process the concept of Granger Causality is applied for investigating the existence of a causal relation between leading economic indicators and production in the time domain. Furthermore, in the second part spectral methods are utilized to get a more insightful view on the topic. These methods allow the formal decomposition of the data in their basic components, which enables me to investigate the relation of leading indicators and production over different frequencies. In this way it is possible to determine the exact frequency bands in which leading indicators contain useful information for the explanation of future economic developments

Umverteilung im Wohlfahrtsstaat

Mit der Zunahme der Ungleichheit in der Verteilung der Markteinkommen in den letzten Jahrzehnten wurden sowohl in den ökonomischen Analysen als auch in der wirtschaftspolitischen Diskussion Verteilungsfragen wieder aktuell. Dazu kommen in den nächsten Jahren die Folgen der tiefen Krise, die zum einen die Bevölkerung in unterschiedlichem Ausmaß trifft und zum anderen Fragen nach den Verteilungswirkungen der Steuern und Staatsausgaben neu aufwerfen wird, wenn die budgetären Folgekosten der Krisenbekämpfung zu finanzieren sein werden. Die vorliegende Studie untersucht die direkten Umverteilungswirkungen der Aktivitäten des öffentlichen Sektors auf die „Wohlfahrt“ der privaten Haushalte für die Jahre 2000 und 2005. Sie schließt an die bisherigen Studien des WIFO (Guger, 1987, 1996A) zu diesem Thema in möglichst vergleichbarer Form an.The increasing inequality in the distribution of market incomes in recent decades has made distribution issues topical again, both in economic analyses and in the discourse on economic policy. The consequences of the current severe economic crisis will further enliven the discussion: on the one hand, the crisis affects different sectors of the population to varying extents, and on the other hand it will again raise questions about the redistribution effects of taxes when it comes to financing the follow-up costs of combating the crisis. This study examines the direct redistributive effects of the activities of the public sector on the ‘welfare’ of private households in the years 2000 and 2005. It follows up the previous studies by the austrian institute for economic Research (wifo) on this theme (Guger, 1987, 1996a) in as comparable a form as possible

Revision Finds Consumption Gives Less Boost to the Economy

Business in the European Union is visibly picking up, carried along by the demand for exports, whereas domestic demand (including from private households) remains muted. Disposable income is growing at a sluggish rate only and the propensity to save continues to be high. As a stabilising factor in a recession, consumption no longer plays its former important role in the euro area. In Austria, private consumption grew modestly in the first half of 2004, according to preliminary WIFO calculations. Growth should accelerate in the second half of the year so that Christmas sales can be expected to benefit.Privater Konsum Sparquote Einzelhandel Weihnachtsgeschäft christmas sales

Konsumerhebung 1974 – Beurteilung der Ergebnisse

Konsumerhebung 1974 – Beurteilung der Ergebnisse

Rebound In Consumer Demand

Private consumption in Austria gained strength after mid-1989 as the income gains stemming from the tax reform boosted spending with the usual time-lag. Demand for durable goods again proved very income-elastic and posted above-average gains. The international trend is for steady consumption growth in 1990, accompanied by some rise in the saving ratio, while in Austria the growth pace is expected to slow in spite of a marked decline in the propensity to save.Belebung der Konsumnachfrage; Rebound In Consumer Demand

Kräftiges Konsumwachstum – günstige Aussichten für das Weihnachtsgeschäft

Kräftiges Konsumwachstum – günstige Aussichten für das Weihnachtsgeschäft

Der Zusammenhang zwischen Benzin- und Rohölpreis. Analyse mit Hilfe von Transferfunktionsmodellen bzw. Fehlerkorrekturansätzen

Der Zusammenhang zwischen Benzin- und Rohölpreis. Analyse mit Hilfe von Transferfunktionsmodellen bzw. Fehlerkorrekturansätzen

Modest Increase of Consumption. Hope for Christmas Sales

Over the past few years, expenditure on private consumption rose more rapidly than incomes because private households continued to spend in spite of the reticent development of incomes. As a consequence, the propensity to save declined and remained at a steady low level in the first half of 2002. Nevertheless, spending on consumption exceeded the actual level of the previous year by just 0.2 percent. One major reason for this was the slack growth of incomes, faltering under the effects of a cyclical downturn, which could not be compensated by the introduction of the child-care benefit. The growth of consumption being mediocre at best is due mainly to the demand for durable goods (cars, furniture, jewellery, electric and electronic equipment), which is highly responsive to the business cycle, falling below the level of the first half of 2001 by 2.2 percent. Demand for such goods sagged as a consequence of general income developments and the resistance to purchases in private households in connection with labour market developments. Demand also appears to have been stymied by the introduction of euro cash (which resulted in purchases advanced to the fourth quarter of 2001 and weak demand after the end of the double price marking period). Demand for non-durable goods and services (food, heating, rental, etc.), which constitutes a stabilising element in consumer demand in general and which changes little in the course of a business cycle, slightly rose in the second half of 2002 (by 0.6 percent). Weak demand on the part of consumers also affected retailing. According to Statistics Austria, retailing sales (at constant prices and excluding motor vehicles) stagnated in the first six months of 2002 at the previous year's level. Growth during the double price marking phase was cancelled out by a subsequent decline. Even when seasonally adjusted, demand dropped once the double price marking phase had expired. On average in July and August, real retail sales once again topped those of the previous year (by 1.5 percent), raising hope in retailers for this year's Christmas business. Christmas is gradually losing its former importance as a sales prop, mostly because of rising affluence, greater variation in the dates for paying the Christmas bonus, changes in consumer behaviour (holiday trips taken around Christmas, consciously refraining from giving presents), lower birth rates (Christmas as a the celebration of and by children), and less piety (problem of identifying with the religious occasion). Yet it is still of eminent importance to some sectors of the economy, as evidenced by peak sales in December. According to the WIFO models, Christmas-driven retail sales (defined as that part of the December sales in excess of "normal" sales), should arrive at and may perhaps even surpass, the previous year's level in real terms.Privater Konsum; Sparquote; Einzelhandel; Weihnachtsgeschäft; Mäßige Konsumsteigerung – Handel hofft auf gutes Weihnachtsgeschäft; Modest Increase of Consumption. Hope for Christmas Sales

Der private Konsum im Strukturwandel

Der private Konsum im Strukturwandel