Beyond the Overall Economic Downturn: Evidence on Sector-specific Effects of Violent Conflict From Indonesia

This paper analyzes the impact of violent conflict on economic activity using micro level data sources from Indonesia. the study compiled a panel dataset at the kabupaten level for the period 2002-2008, and attempted to disentangle the overall negative effect of violent conflict on economic growth into its sectoral components. we find substantial differences across sectors, with the most detrimental impact evident in manufacturing industries and the service sector. furthermore, the short-run impacts on growth appear to be only temporal and some evidence of the "phoenix effect" in the ready post-conflict period is found. the construction sector, in particular, recovers quickly once the conflict ends, while manufacturing industries and the finance sector appear especially reliant on a lasting peace. the results therefore reveal the substantial effects of violent conflict on the structure of the economy and hence its longer-term growth trajectory. a series of alternative specifications confirm the main findings of the analysis. keywords: violent conflict, economic growth, Indonesia jel codes: 011, f5

Explaining the Regional Heterogeneity of Poverty: Evidence From Decentralized Indonesia

This study presents evidence from Indonesia on how the country\u27s recent periods of economic growth have contributed to poverty reduction at the regional level, with a particular emphasis on the role of decentralization. over the past decade Indonesia has made significant progress in reducing poverty, from 23% of the population in 1999 to less than 12% in 2013. however, substantial differences in regional poverty are observed. in this paper, we discuss the factors that drive the evolution of poverty in a decentralized Indonesia, and relate kabupaten (district) performance in poverty reduction to a wide range of social, economic, and political characteristics within the area. the study finds gross domestic product (gdp) per capita to be one of the major driving forces behind the decline in regional poverty. additionally, results from a panel data analysis covering the period of 2005 to 2010 show that poverty has decreased in particular in those kabupaten with (i) a larger share of local leaders with secondary education; (ii) a higher average educational attainment; (iii) an established local office for the coordination of poverty reduction initiatives (tkpkd); (iv) a higher share of fiscal revenues; and (v) a higher share of urban population. furthermore, there appears to be a positive link between regional inequality and poverty, suggesting that a successful poverty reduction strategy requires both economic growth and sound social policies. keywords: poverty, decentralization, economic growth, Indonesia

Combating “maritime terrorism” off the coast of Somalia

This paper evaluates the effectiveness of the international naval mission in the Gulf of Aden from 2008-2010, both in terms of its counter-piracy and its counter-terrorism objectives. We draw on arguments developed in the literature of law and economics, detailed statistical analyses and a large number of in depth interviews. Counter-piracy operations are a qualified success: their main effects are the stabilisation of attacks at a high level and the substitution between the relatively well protected transit corridor in the Gulf of Aden and the open sea. However, the counter-piracy measures appear to deter pirates from forming alliances with Islamist movements and may therefore make a major contribution to international security

Migration as Cause and Consequence of Aspirations

This paper aims to disentangle the relationship between aspirations and migration by analysing why Indonesian internal migrants generally have higher aspirations when compared with non-migrants. We ask whether migrants have higher aspirations for improving their economic well-being, and whether this 'capacity to aspire’ already existed before migration or is rather the result of the migration experience itself. Based on longitudinal information from three waves of the Indonesian Family and Life Survey (IFLS) between 1997 and 2007, we find robust evidence for migrants having higher individual aspirations than non-migrants already before they choose to migrate. About 70 per cent of the aspiration differential between future migrants and non-migrants can be explained by factors such as young age, education, or socio-economic background, which also affect the 'capacity to realise’ migration; the residual, however, is due to a personal trait, i.e. a certain disposition to have higher aspirations. Beyond these systematic pre-migration differences in aspirations, we find that despite the fact that migration is economically beneficial for most migrants, migration further spurs aspiration gaps

The validity of the DSM-IV diagnostic classification system of non-affective psychoses

Objective: The schizophrenia and other non-affective disorders categories listed in the DSM-IV, are currently under revision for the development of the fifth edition. The aim of the present study is to demonstrate the validity of these categories by investigating possible differences between diagnostic patient subgroups on various measures. Methods: 1064 patients with a diagnosis of non-affective psychosis (schizophrenia N = 731 (paranoid type 82%), schizoaffective N = 63, schizophreniform N = 120, psychosis not otherwise specified/brief psychotic disorder N = 150) participated in this study. Dependent variables were demographic and clinical characteristics, severity of psychopathology, premorbid and current functioning, and indicators of quality of life. Results: Within the diagnostic group of schizophrenia, no significant differences were observed between paranoid schizophrenia, disorganized, and undifferentiated schizophrenia. Patients with schizophrenia experienced more severe psychopathology and had poorer levels of current functioning compared to patients with psychosis not otherwise specified or brief psychotic disorder. Differences between schizophrenia and schizoaffective disorder were less clear. Conclusion: Our results do not support the validity of schizophrenia subtypes. Schizophrenia can be distinguished from brief psychotic disorder and psychotic disorder not otherwise specified. These findings may fuel the actual DSM-V discussion