Past experience of uncertainty affects risk aversion

In an experiment with more than 500 participants we study how past experience of uncertainty (imperfect knowledge of the state space) affects risk preferences. Participants in our experiment choose between a sure outcome and a lottery in 32 periods. All treatments are exactly identical in periods 17–32 but differ in periods 1–16. In the early periods of the risk treatment there is perfect information about the lottery; in the ambiguity Treatment participants perfectly know the outcome space but not the associated probabilities; in the unawareness treatment participants have imperfect knowledge about both outcomes and probabilities. We observe strong treatment effects on behavior in periods 17–32. In particular, participants who have been exposed to an environment with very imperfect knowledge of the state space subsequently choose lotteries with high (low) variance less (more) often compared to other participants. Estimating individual risk attitudes from choices in periods 17–32 we find that the distribution of risk attitude parameters across our treatments can be ranked in terms of first order stochastic dominance. Our results show how exposure to environments with different degrees of uncertainty can affect individuals’ subsequent risk-taking behavior

Decision Making with Imperfect Knowledge of the State Space

We conduct an experiment to study how imperfect knowledge of the state space affects subsequent choices under uncertainty with perfect knowledge of the state space. Participants in our experiment choose between a sure outcome and a lottery in 32 periods. All treatments are exactly identical in periods 17 to 32 but differ in periods 1 to 16. In the early periods of the ?Risk Treatment? there is perfect information about the lottery; in the ?Ambiguity Treatment? participants perfectly know the outcome space but not the associated probabilities; in the ?Unawareness Treatment? participants have imperfect knowledge about both outcomes and probabilities. All three treatments induce strong behavioural differences in periods 17 to 32. In particular participants who have been exposed to an environment with very imperfect knowledge of the state space subsequently choose lotteries with high (low) variance less (more) often compared to other participants. Estimating individual risk attitudes from choices in periods 17 to 32 we find that the distribution of risk attitude parameters across our treatments can be ranked in terms of first order stochastic dominance. Our results show how exposure to different degrees of uncertainty can have long-lasting effects on individuals? risk-taking behaviour

Timing of social feedback shapes observational learning in strategic interaction

Abstract Many types of social interaction require the ability to anticipate others' behavior, which is commonly referred to as strategic sophistication. In this context, observational learning can represent a decisive tool for behavioral adaptation. However, little is known on whether and when individuals learn from observation in interactive settings. In the current study, 321 participants played one-shot interactive games and, at a given time along the experiment, they could observe the choices of an overtly efficient player. This social feedback could be provided before or after the participant’s choice in each game. Results reveal that players with a sufficient level of strategic skills increased their level of sophistication only when the social feedback was provided after their choices, whereas they relied on blind imitation when they received feedback before their decision. Conversely, less sophisticated players did not increase their level of sophistication, regardless of the type of social feedback. Our findings disclose the interplay between endogenous and exogenous factors modulating observational learning in strategic interaction

Small-world conservatives and rigid liberals : attitudes towards sharing in self-proclaimed left and right

We experimentally explore the way political preferences shape giving behavior. We find no difference in average giving between the Left and the Right in a Dictator game environment. However, we find the reasons for giving to be different. Right-leaning individuals give according to a norm-dependent utility that takes into account the beliefs of the receiver. The behavior of left-leaning individuals is not shaped by such an interaction between norms and beliefs. We conclude that right-wingers choose in accordance with a "small world" view, where giving is shaped by social interaction, while left-wingers appear rigid in their reaction to social context

Эпидемическая ситуация по туберкулезу в пенитенциарных учреждениях России: основные тенденции развития и вызовы

The article describes the current tuberculosis epidemiological situation in institutions of the penitentiary system including the combination of tuberculosis and HIV infection. The epidemic consequences of increased coverage of people living with HIV infection (PLHIV) with antiretroviral therapy (ART) were analyzed. By 2020, tuberculosis incidence dropped to 621 per 100,000. Tuberculosis mortality dropped to 6.8 per 100,000. The incidence of tuberculosis among PLHIV decreased from 3,490.6 per 100,000 population in 2014 to 2,014.2 per 100,000 population in 2020, while coverage of PLHIV with ART increased from 21.7 to 89.6%. The proportion of TB patients among PLHIV decreased from 10.4% in 2014 to 7.2% in 2020. The proportion of PLHIV among newly diagnosed TB patients remained high (34.4% in 2020). The prevalence of multiple drug resistant tuberculosis decreased to 557.6 per 100,000. Thus, in 2020, the epidemiological tuberculosis situation in the Russian penitentiary institutions continued to improve. The strategy to increase coverage of PLHIV with ART proved to be effective for prevention of tuberculosis in penitentiary settings. Multiple drug resistant tuberculosis presents a serious problem which forms the grounds for introduction of modern treatment protocols with innovative drugs to the Russian penitentiary institutions.В статье изложены вопросы современной эпидемиологии туберкулеза в учреждениях уголовно-исполнительной системы, в том числе в сочетании туберкулеза с ВИЧ-инфекцией. Проведен анализ эпидемических последствий увеличения охвата лиц, живущих с ВИЧ-инфекцией (ЛЖВ), антиретровирусной терапией (АРТ). Показатель заболеваемости туберкулезом к 2020 г. снизился до 621 на 100 000. Смертность от туберкулеза снизилась до 6,8 на 100 000. Заболеваемость туберкулезом ЛЖВ снизилась с 3 490,6 в 2014 г. до 2 014,2 на 100 000 населения в 2020 г. на фоне роста охвата ЛЖВ АРТ с 21,7 до 89,6%. Доля больных туберкулезом среди ЛЖВ снизилась с 10,4% в 2014 до 7,2% в 2020 г. Сохраняется высокая доля ЛЖВ среди впервые выявленных больных туберкулезом (в 2020 г. – 34,4%). Распространенность туберкулеза с множественной лекарственной устойчивостью микобактерий туберкулеза снизилась до 557,6 на 100 000. Таким образом, в 2020 г. продолжилось улучшение эпидемической ситуации по туберкулезу в пенитенциарных учреждениях России. Стратегия по увеличению охвата ЛЖВ АРТ доказала свою результативность для профилактики заболевания туберкулезом в условиях пенитенциарных учреждений. Серьезную проблему представляет туберкулез с множественной лекарственной устойчивостью микобактерий туберкулеза, что является основанием для внедрения современных протоколов лечения с использованием инновационных препаратов в пенитенциарных учреждениях России

Клинико-статистический анализ предикторов летальных исходов у больных туберкулезом, получающих лечение в учреждениях ФСИН России

The objective: to determine risk factors of lethal outcomes (predictors) in tuberculosis patients treated with chemotherapy regimens I, II, III during confinement in the Russian penitentiary system.Subjects and Methods: data on 6,069 patients registered for treatment in 2019 and 2020 were studied. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed.Results. The following factors were found to have effect on mortality: age (aOR = 1.05; 95% CI 1.03-1.06), multiple localizations of tuberculosis (aOR = 11.08; 95% CI 5.12-24.20), concurrent HIV infection (aOR = 9.13; 95% CI 6.90-12.24), and positive sputum microscopy at registration (aOR = 5.18; 95% CI 3.93-6.81). The patient gender was found to have no effect (OR = 0.9; 95% CI 0.4-1.9; p = 1).Цель исследования: определить факторы риска летального исхода (предикторы) у пациентов с туберкулезом, получающих лечение по I, II, III режимам химиотерапии во время нахождения в пенитенциарных учреждениях России.Материалы и методы: изучены сведения о 6 069 записях о пациентах, зарегистрированных для лечения в 2019 и 2020 г. Проводили одномерный и многомерный анализ.Результаты. Установлено влияние на частоту летального исхода возраста (aOR = 1,05; 95% CI 1,03-1,06), множественных локализаций туберкулеза (aOR = 11,08; 95% CI 5,12-24,20), наличия сопутствующей ВИЧ-инфекции (aOR = 9,13; 95% CI 6,90-12,24), положительного результата микроскопии мокроты при регистрации (aOR = 5,18; 95% CI 3,93-6,81). Не было выявлено влияния пола пациентов (OR = 0,9; 95% CI 0,4-1,9; p = 1)

Факторы риска госпитальной летальности больных с сочетанием туберкулеза и ВИЧ-инфекции в учреждениях уголовно-исполнительной системы

The problem of tuberculosis with concurrent HIV infection is now becoming increasingly important. It is necessary to determine predictors of a lethal outcome from TB/HIV co-infection for timely selection of the optimal tactics for managing patients and reducing the number of unfavorable outcomes. Objective: to identify significant risk factors of hospital mortality from TB/HIV co-infection among patients in penitentiary institutions. Subjects and methods. For statistical data processing, machine learning methods were used based on the optimal splitting of feature space. To determine the significance coefficients of the identified risk factors, the artificial neural network method was used. Results. The predictive factors of mortality of a tuberculosis patient with concurrent HIV infection undergoing inpatient treatment were identified. The major ones were the following: presence of active HIV associated diseases, CD4 count below 88 cell/mcl, viral load exceeding 595,892.5 copies/mcl, such clinical forms of tuberculosis as bilateral infiltrative tuberculosis with lesion in more than two lobes, disseminated, miliary, fibrous-cavernous tuberculosis, caseous pneumonia, extrapulmonary tuberculosis, and arrhythmia.Проблема туберкулеза, протекающего на фоне ВИЧ-инфекции, в настоящее время приобретает все бóльшую актуальность. Определение предикторов летального исхода от сочетания ВИЧ-инфекции и туберкулеза необходимо для своевременного выбора оптимальной тактики ведения пациентов и снижения числа случаев неблагоприятного исхода.Цель: определение значимых факторов риска госпитальной летальности от сочетания ВИЧ-инфекции и туберкулеза среди пациентов пенитенциарных учреждений.Материалы и методы. Для статистической обработки данных применяли методы машинного обучения, основанные на построении оптимальных разбиений признакового пространства. Для определения коэффициентов значимости выявленных факторов риска использовали метод искусственных нейронных сетей.Результаты. Установлены предиктивные факторы летальности больного туберкулезом, протекающим на фоне ВИЧ-инфекции, находящегося на стационарном лечении, наиболее значимыми среди которых стали: наличие активных ВИЧ-ассоциированных заболеваний, количество CD4-лимфоцитов ниже 88 кл/мкл, уровень вирусной нагрузки ВИЧ более 595 892,5 коп/мкл, клинические формы туберкулеза: двусторонний инфильтративный с поражением более двух долей легких, диссеминированный, милиарный, фиброзно-кавернозный, казеозная пневмония, внелегочные формы туберкулеза, аритмия