Evaluating and Measuring the Security of Russia’s Border Regions: Theory and Practice

The economic security of Russia’s regions has been the focus of numerous studies. Significant contributions have been made to relevant methodological approaches and measurement tools. However, economic security has been little studied in the context of border regions. In this article, we address the methodological problems of employing existing methods and models for measuring the economic security of border regions. We pay special attention to the development of an evaluation algorithm incorporating the border regions’ characteristics, the identification of groups (classes), a set of universal, specific, and special indicators as well as the impact of protective measures on economic security. To justify our proposals, we analyse the economic security of the Kaliningrad region; it is a study based on an evaluation of protective measures in the regional agricultural industry and of the effect of different factors on the generation of value added in the sector. We emphasise the need to take into account regional conditions when assessing economic security and to introduce economic and mathematical calculations into the relevant measurement algorithm at its different stages. We use our findings in providing a rationale for the central principles and procedures for creating a comprehensive model of the economic security of Russia’s western border regions

Scenarios of increasing the econo­mic efficiency of the Kaliningrad regional transport system

The development of the considerable transport and logistics potential of the Kaliningrad region is hampered by several factors. This problem, to which we will refer to as a transport deadlock effect, translates into the limited contribution of transport to the regional economy. Particularly, it manifests itself at the level of regional gross value added, where the contribu­tion of transport is much smaller than one might expect given the significant role the industry plays in the economy of the region. In this study, we examine major ways of increasing the economic efficiency of the regional transport system from the value added perspective. We posit that the structure of cargo handled and the redistribution of value added in favour of regional actors have the dominant influence on economic efficiency. Using our own simula­tion model and the earlier developed system of transport tariffs and value added calculation for the Kaliningrad region, we produce scenarios and consider changes in value added in the case of selected cargoes carrying intermediate, investment, and consumer goods (as defined in the International Classification for Broad Economic Categories ICT BEC-4). Our calcula­tions show that higher value added and greater economic efficiency of a regional transport system are associated with re-orientation towards investment and consumer goods. The most visible effect is associated with rail and road transport. As to sea transport, the decisive role is played by an increase in the physical volume of cargo handled. The results of this study and its modelling tools can be applied in the analysis of the current situation and in the assess­ment of the efficiency of transport systems in other regions. Another possible application is the identification of growth conditions for an industry, particularly, when developing projects and proposals for increasing the efficiency of transport services

Geopolitical Security of Russia: Remarks on the Problem Statement

This paper summarizes the results of the seminar "Geopolitical Security of Russia: Remarks on the Problem Statement", held on August 26, 2022, at the Immanuel Kant Baltic Federal University, Kaliningrad. During the seminar, the Institute of Geopolitical and Regional Studies of the university announced an initiative to devise a system of monitoring the geopolitical (regional) security of Russia. The debate centred around the development of a conceptual framework and a geopolitical security model as a prerequisite for the system. The discussion also covered other relevant issues, including the definition of geopolitical security and geopolitical space as well as the types of geopolitical threats and vulnerabilities. Another topic on the agenda was the analysis of theoretical approaches applicable to monitoring the geopolitical security in Russia. A constructivist approach based on discursive practices was viewed as the most promising for tracking changes in geopolitical threats. In this work, the emphasis should be placed on regional issues, i. e. the situation in particular regions. Other promising avenues for further research are the operationalization of relevant concepts and the development of a set of indicators of geopolitical threats and vulnerabilities, which Russia has already faced and may face in the future

Migration Connectivity of Kaliningrad Oblast with Other Russian Regions in the Age of Geopolitical Turbulence

Kaliningrad oblast’s internal migration has recently become a key factor contributing to its positive net migration. It is hypothesised that the region’s migration connectivity with other territories of Russia has increased, including due to a major transformation of the external and internal conditions of the regional and national development taking place since 2014. The study aims to confirm the hypothesis, as well as to identify the features of the change in the region’s migration connectivity with other entities of the Russian Federation in 2014-2021. The research applies general scientific, statistical and cartographic analysis methods, the method for calculating the coefficients of migration link intensity (Rybakovsky), the method for modelling migration schedules (Rogers and Castro). 2014-2021 official statistics obtained from Rosstat and Kaliningradstat were used. The study confirms the hypothesis of the substantial increase in Kaliningrad oblast’s migration connectivity with most other regions of the Russian Federation that manifested in an increase in the internal migration link intensity with a considerable expansion of incoming migration gravitation zones and compression of outgoing migration gravitation zones. The regions of the Far East, the North-West and Siberia show the largest increase in migration connectivity.Межрегиональная миграция в Калининградской области, выступающая предметом настоящего исследования, в недавнее время вышла на первый план в формировании положительного сальдо миграции. Гипотеза исследования заключается в том, что миграционная связанность региона с другими территориями страны выросла, в т. ч. вследствие значительной трансформации внешних и внутренних условий развития региона и страны в целом с 2014 г. Проверка этой гипотезы, а также выявление специфики изменения миграционной связанности региона с другими субъектами РФ в период 2014–2021 гг. определили цель исследования. Методологическую основу исследования составили общие научные, статистические и картографические методы анализа, методика расчета коэффициентов интенсивности миграционных связей (Л. Л. Рыбаковского), методика построения возрастного профиля мигрантов (А. Роджерс и Л. Кастро). Источником информации послужили официальные статистические данные Росстата и Калининградстата за период 2014–2021 гг. Исследование подтвердило исходную гипотезу о существенном росте миграционной связанности Калининградской области с большинством других регионов РФ, проявляющемся в увеличении интенсивности межрегиональных миграционных связей при значительном расширении зон миграционного тяготения по прибытию и сжатию зон миграционного тяготения по выбытию. Наиболее заметный рост миграционной связанности зафиксирован с регионами Дальнего Востока, Северо-Запада и Сибири.Исследование выполнено за счет гранта Российского научного фонда № 22-27-20064, https://rscf.ru/project/22-27-20064

Features of balance model development of exclave region

In the article, the authors build a balance model for an exclave region. The aim of the work is to explore the unique properties of exclaves to evaluate the possibility of development of a more complex model for the economy of a region. Exclaves are strange phenomena in both theoretical and practical regional economy. There is lack of comparative models, so it is typically quite challenging to study exclaves. At the same time, exclaves produce better statistics, which gives more careful consideration of cross-regional economic flows. The authors discuss methodologies of model-based regional development forecasting. They analyze balance approach on a more general level of regional governance and individually, on the example of specific territories. Thus, they identify and explain the need to develop balance approach models fitted to the special needs of certain territories. By combining regional modeling for an exclave with traditional balance and simulation-based methods and event-based approach, they come up with a more detailed model for the economy of a region. Having taken one Russian exclave as an example, the authors have developed a simulation event-based long-term sustainability model. In the article, they provide the general characteristics of the model, describe its components, and simulation algorithm. The approach introduced in this article combines the traditional balance models and the peculiarities of an exclave region to develop a holistic regional economy model (with the Kaliningrad region serving as an example). It is important to underline that the resulting model helps to evaluate the degree of influence of preferential economic regimes (such as Free Customs Zone, for example) on the economy of a region.Рассмотрена проблема разработки модели эксклавного региона. Показаны особенности прогнозирования регионального развития с использованием балансового метода. Дана общая характеристика балансовой модели долгосрочной устойчивости Калининградской области, описаны основные составные блоки и алгоритм имитационного моделирования