Long-term north–south asymmetry of the heliospheric current sheet

Abstract In this paper, we evaluate the heliospheric current sheet (HCS) north–south asymmetry using the ecliptical sector structure of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) reconstructed since the second half of the 19th century. During the last five solar cycles, the inferred IMF polarities fairly reproduce the observed dominance of the sectors with the polarity of the northern solar hemisphere, i.e., the prolonged southward shift of the HCS. For the presatellite era, we found that the northward shift of the HCS was more common in cycles 10, 15, and 17–19, and the southward HCS shift was more common in cycles 9, 11–14, and 16. We also analyzed the north–south asymmetry in sunspot group numbers since 1749 and found that the northern hemisphere dominated in cycles 2–3, 7–9, and 15–20, and the southern hemisphere activity was stronger in cycles 4, 9–14, and 21–24. Moreover, other solar phenomena bear similar long-term asymmetry variations. The regularity of these variations is not clear. According to the available proxies of the solar data, the dominance of the northern hemisphere is found in the ascending phase of the secular solar cycle, and the dominance of the southern hemisphere coincides with the descending phase

Sunspot observations at the Eimmart observatory:revision and supplement

Abstract Digital images of sunspot drawings of the archives of Georg Christoph Eimmart stored at the National Library of Russia, St. Petersburg, are analyzed to obtain sunspot-group numbers and sunspot areas as well as heliographic positions. Overall, more than a hundred drawings were processed. The impact of drawing and reproduction uncertainties and the aims of historical observations are considered. The sunspot positions are compared to those reported by contemporary observers of the Maunder minimum. The restored sunspot-group numbers and latitudes are compared to those extracted by Hoyt and Schatten (Solar Phys. 179, 189, 1998) as well as Hayakawa et al. (Solar Phys. 296, 154, 2021b) and Hayakawa et al. (Astrophys. J. 909, 166, 2021d). The persistence of long-lived sunspots over several solar rotations is discussed

Long-term prediction of sudden stratospheric warmings with geomagnetic and solar activity

Abstract The polar vortex is a strong jet of westerly wind which forms each winter around the polar stratosphere. Sometimes, roughly every other winter, the polar vortex in the Northern Hemisphere experiences a dramatic breakdown and associated warming of the polar stratosphere. Such events are called sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) and they are known to have a significant influence on ground weather in Northern Eurasia and large parts of North America. Typically, these events are thought to occur due to planetary waves propagating to the stratosphere where they may disrupt the vortex. Here, we show that the SSW probability depends significantly on a favorable combination of geomagnetic and solar activity and the phase of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO). Using logistic regression models, we find that more SSWs occur when early-winter geomagnetic activity (aa index) is low and QBO winds are easterly and when solar activity (F10.7 index) is high and QBO winds are westerly. We then examine the possibility of using these results to predict the occurrence probability of SSWs with several months lead time and evaluate the optimal lead times for all variables using cross-validation methods. As a result, we find that the SSW probability can be predicted rather well and we can issue a probabilistic SSW prediction for the coming winter season with a success ratio of about 86% already in the preceding August. The results presented here are an important step toward improving the seasonal predictability of wintertime weather using information about solar and geomagnetic activity