Information sharing, bank penetration and tax evasion in emerging markets

Tax evasion, which is typically considered an illegal activity, is a critical problem and is considered a barrier to economic growth. A review of the literature shows that tax and social security contributions, regulations, public sector services, the quality of institutions and tax compliance, play important roles in determining the degree to which firms attempt to evade taxes. Measuring tax evasion is problematic due to data requirements and inadequacies. Few tax evasion indices have been estimated but it appears that they cannot be used for international comparisons across countries. This important issue has largely been ignored in the literature, in particular for emerging markets. Consequently, this paper is conducted to develop a new tax evasion index (TEI) using the most substantial and recent data from the standardized World Bank Enterprises Survey 2006–2017. In addition, using the newly developed TEI, the paper examines the importance and contribution of information sharing and bank penetration to the degree of tax evasion in emerging markets. The paper uses a sample of 112 emerging markets from 2006–2017 and the Tobit model in estimation. The empirical findings from the paper indicate that the average TEI during the 2006– 2017 period for emerging markets is 0.62, with a range of (0.25, 0.75). In addition, we find that information sharing and bank penetration negatively affect the degree of tax evasion, as proxied by the TEI, in emerging markets. The empirical results also confirm the view that large firms are considered to have adopted good tax compliance practices, while firms located in remote areas are more likely to evade taxes. Policy implications have emerged on the basis of the empirical findings from the paper

Systematic risk at the industry level: A case study of Australia

The cornerstone of the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) lies with its beta. The question of whether or not beta is dead has attracted great attention from academics and practitioners in the last 50 years or so, and the debate is still ongoing. Many empirical studies have been conducted to test the validity of beta within the framework of CAPM. However, it is a claim of this paper that beta at the industry level has been largely ignored in the current literature. This study is conducted to examine if beta, proxied for a systematic risk, should be considered valid in the application of the CAPM at the industry level for Australia using daily data on 2200 stocks listed on the Australian Securities Exchange from January 2007 to 31 December 2016. Various portfolio formations are utilized in this paper. General economic conditions such as interest rate, inflation, and GDP are examples of systematic risk. Findings from this study indicate that the selection of portfolio construction, estimation technique, and news about economic conditions significantly affects the view whether or not beta should be considered as a valid measure of systematic risk

Rent Seeking for Export Licenses: Application to the Vietnam Rice Market

The paper develops a model to examine rent seeking in innovation and export licenses, with an application to Vietnam rice exports. Firms can lobby for export restrictions or for free trade. Innovation is introduced as a cost-reducing technology. The analysis focuses on the innovation incentives of the firm lobbying for export restrictions, and the determinants of lobbying incentives. The analysis shows that firms lobbying for export restrictions may have lower incentives to adopt technological innovations under export restrictions than under free trade. The findings can help to identify economic inefficiency when the political elites use export restrictions to seek rents

CO2 Emissions, Energy Consumption and Economic Growth

The paper investigates the role of consumption of both renewable and sustainable energy, as well as alternative and nuclear energy, in mitigating the effects of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, based on the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC). The papers introduces a novel variable to capture trade openness, which appears to be a crucial factor in inter-regional co-operation and development, in order to evaluate its effect on the environment, The empirical analysis is based on a sample of nine signatories to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) for the period 1971-2014, which is based on data availability. The empirical analysis is based on several time series econometric methods, such as the cointegration test, two long run estimators, namely the fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) and dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) methods, as well as the Granger causality test. There are several noteworthy empirical findings: it is possibl

Modelling the Relationship between Crude Oil and Agricultural Commodity Prices

The food-energy nexus has attracted great attention from policymakers, practitioners and academia since the food price crisis during the 2007-2008 Global Financial Crisis (GFC), and new policies that aim to increase ethanol production. This paper incorporates aggregate demand and alternative oil shocks to investigate the causal relationship between agricultural products and oil markets, which is a novel contribution. For the period January 2000 - July 2018, monthly spot prices of 15 commodities are examined, including Brent crude oil, biofuel-related agricultural commodities, and other agricultural commodities. The sample is divided into three sub-periods, namely: (i) January 2000 - July 2006; (ii) August 2006 - April 2013; and (iii) May 2013 - July 2018. The Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) model, impulse response functions, and variance decomposition technique are used to examine how the shocks to agricultural markets contribute to the variance of crude oil prices. The empirical findings from the paper indicate that not every oil shock contributes the same to agricultural price fluctuations, and similarly for the effects of aggregate demand shocks on the agricultural market. These results show that the crude oil market plays a major role in explaining fluctuations in the prices and associated volatility of agricultural commoditie

Financial Inclusion and Macroeconomic Stability in Emerging and Frontier Markets

Financial inclusion, being considered as a key enabler to reducing poverty and boosting prosperity in emerging and frontier markets such as Vietnam, is the process in which individuals and small businesses are provided with an access to useful and affordable financial products and services. The extant literature on the empirical evidence regarding the contribution of financial inclusion to macroeconomic stability is mixed. This paper investigates the linkages between financial inclusion and macroeconomic stability, which has not yet been thoroughly examined in the literature, for 22 emerging and frontier economies from 2008 to 2015, with particular focus on a potential optimal level. Using the panel threshold estimation technique, the empirical findings show that financial inclusion, as approximated by the growth rate in the number of bank branches over 100,000 account holders, is found to enhance financial stability under a certain threshold. Financial inclusion is also found to be of benefit to maintaining stable inflation and output growth. Policy implications are also discussed on the basis of the important empirical findings

Corporate Financial Distress of Industry Level Listings in an Emerging Market

Any critical analysis of the corporate financial distress of listed firms in international exchange would be incomplete without a serious dissection at the industry level because of the different levels of risks concerned. This paper considers the financial distress of listed firms at the industry level in Vietnam over the last decade. Two periods are considered, namely during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) (2007 - 2009) and post-GFC (2010 - 2017). The logit regression technique is used to estimate alternative models based on accounting and market factors. The paper also extends the analysis to include selected macroeconomic factors that are expected to affect the corporate financial distress of listed firms at the industry level in Vietnam. The empirical findings confirm that the corporate financial distress prediction model, which includes accounting factors with macroeconomic indicators, performs much better than alternative models. In addition, the evidence confirms that the GFC had a damaging impact on each sector, with the Health & Education sector demonstrating the most impressive recovery post-GFC, and the Utilities sector recording a dramatic increase in bankruptcies post-GF

Market risk analysis of energy in Vietnam

The purpose of this paper is to evaluate and estimate market risk for the ten major industries in Vietnam. The focus of the empirical analysis is on the energy sector, which has been designated as one of the four key industries, together with services, food, and telecommunications, targeted for economic development by the Vietnam Government through to 2020. The oil and gas industry is a separate energy-related major industry, and it is evaluated separately from energy. The data set is from 2009 to 2017, which is decomposed into two distinct sub-periods after the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), namely the immediate post-GFC (2009–2011) period and the normal (2012–2017) period, in order to identify the behavior of market risk for Vietnam’s major industries. For the stock market in Vietnam, the website used in this paper provided complete and detailed data for each stock, as classified by industry. Two widely used approaches to measure and analyze risk are used in the empirical analysis, namely Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR). The empirical findings indicate that Energy and Pharmaceuticals are the least risky industries, whereas oil and gas and securities have the greatest risk. In general, there is strong empirical evidence that the four key industries display relatively low risk. For public policy, the Vietnam Government’s proactive emphasis on the targeted industries, including energy, to achieve sustainable economic growth and national economic development, seems to be working effectively. This paper presents striking empirical evidence that Vietnam’s industries have substantially improved their economic performance over the full sample, moving from relatively higher levels of market risk in the immediate post-GFC period to a lower risk environment in a normal period several years after the end of the calamitous GFC