The Mediterranean analysis and forecasting physical system for the Copernicus Marine Service: description and skill assessment

The Mediterranean Analysis and Forecasting System is a numerical ocean prediction system that operationally produces analyses and 10 days forecasts of the main physical parameters for the entire Mediterranean Sea and its Atlantic Ocean adjacent areas. The system is composed by the hydrodynamic model NEMO (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean) 2-way coupled with the third-generation wave model WW3 (WaveWatchIII) and forced by ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts) atmospheric fields. The forecast initial conditions are produced by a 3D variational data assimilation system which considers a daily assimilation cycle of Sea Level Anomaly, vertical profiles of Temperature and Salinity from ARGO and ship CTDs and heat flux corrections with satellite SST. The system has been recently upgraded in the framework of the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS) by increasing the grid resolution from 1/16 to 1/24 degree in the horizontal, thus becoming fully mesoscale resolving and from 72 to 141 vertical levels, by increasing the number of fresh water river inputs and by updating the data assimilation scheme. The model has a non-linear explicit free surface and the forecast is forced by surface pressure, interactive heat, momentum and water fluxes at the air-sea interface. The focus of this work is to present the latest modeling system upgrades and the related improvements achieved by showing the model skill assessment including comparison with independent (insitu coastal moorings) and quasi-independent (insitu vertical profiles and satellite) datasets.PublishedHalifax, Nova Scotia, Canada4A. Oceanografia e clim

Marine climate change and environmental indicators from the Marine Core Service

In the framework of the Mediterranean Operational Oceanography Network (MOON, http://www.moon-oceanforecasting.eu) The Mediterranean Forecasting System (Pinardi et al., 2003) has started the design and development of services that include the routine production of environmental and climate indicators. A process of identifying user requirements has been started in collaboration with European Environment Agency and the indicators definition and implementation aim to take user requirements into account. The indicators are extensively used by EEA (EEA web page on indicators: http://themes.eea.europa.eu/indicators/). INGV has carried out an analysis on the possible improvements of existing indicators in use by EEA and on the development of new indicators based on Marine Core Services (MCS) products. The list of indicators includes: Temperature, Chlorophyll-a (from ocean colour), Ocean Currents and Transport, Salinity, Transparency, Sea Level, Sea Ice and Density. A critical analysis has been carried out to identify the relevance of the above-mentioned indicators for EU policies, their spatial and temporal coverage, their accuracy and their availability (Coppini et al., 2008). INGV in collaboration with CNR-ISAC are directly involved on the development of the indicators in the Mediterranean region and European Seas region the Temperature and Chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) products are the most suitable for an indicator development test phase. In particular the OO Chl-a product, deduced from satellite data, is able to contribute to the further development of the EEA Chl-a indicator on eutrohpication that is based on in-situ measurements (CSI023). For this indicator a development phase has been undertaken in 2008 and 2009 within the European Topic Center for Water (ETC-W) for EEA. The temperature indicators, developed with the support of MyOcean and Operational Oceanography community, consist of long time series (1870-Today) of SST anomaly able to describe ocean temperature increase due to climate change in the European Seas and on SST trends map of the last 25 years for the European Seas. These last two indicators have been included in the last 2008 EEA report on Impacts of Climate change in the European Seas (http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/eea_report_2008_4). Moreover MFS re-analysis have been produced for the Mediterranean Sea and it consists of daily output of MFS-OPA hydrodinamic model (1/16 of degree horizontal resolution) that assimilates all available in situ and satellite observation for 1985 to 2007. This reanalysis product is used to detect temperature anomalies over the last 20 years in the coastal zone that could be related with environmental stresses. In addition to that we have also identified a Density indicator that appears relevant for the ecosystem health assessment in the coastal waters.PublishedBerlin, Germany3.7. Dinamica del clima e dell'oceanoope

Marine climate change and environmental indicators from the Marine Core Service

In the framework of the Mediterranean Operational Oceanography Network (MOON, http://www.moon-oceanforecasting.eu) The Mediterranean Forecasting System (Pinardi et al., 2003) has started the design and development of services that include the routine production of environmental and climate indicators. A process of identifying user requirements has been started in collaboration with European Environment Agency and the indicators definition and implementation aim to take user requirements into account. The indicators are extensively used by EEA (EEA web page on indicators: http://themes.eea.europa.eu/indicators/). INGV has carried out an analysis on the possible improvements of existing indicators in use by EEA and on the development of new indicators based on Marine Core Services (MCS) products. The list of indicators includes: Temperature, Chlorophyll-a (from ocean colour), Ocean Currents and Transport, Salinity, Transparency, Sea Level, Sea Ice and Density. A critical analysis has been carried out to identify the relevance of the above-mentioned indicators for EU policies, their spatial and temporal coverage, their accuracy and their availability (Coppini et al., 2008). INGV in collaboration with CNR-ISAC are directly involved on the development of the indicators in the Mediterranean region and European Seas region the Temperature and Chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) products are the most suitable for an indicator development test phase. In particular the OO Chl-a product, deduced from satellite data, is able to contribute to the further development of the EEA Chl-a indicator on eutrohpication that is based on in-situ measurements (CSI023). For this indicator a development phase has been undertaken in 2008 and 2009 within the European Topic Center for Water (ETC-W) for EEA. The temperature indicators, developed with the support of MyOcean and Operational Oceanography community, consist of long time series (1870-Today) of SST anomaly able to describe ocean temperature increase due to climate change in the European Seas and on SST trends map of the last 25 years for the European Seas. These last two indicators have been included in the last 2008 EEA report on Impacts of Climate change in the European Seas (http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/eea_report_2008_4). Moreover MFS re-analysis have been produced for the Mediterranean Sea and it consists of daily output of MFS-OPA hydrodinamic model (1/16 of degree horizontal resolution) that assimilates all available in situ and satellite observation for 1985 to 2007. This reanalysis product is used to detect temperature anomalies over the last 20 years in the coastal zone that could be related with environmental stresses. In addition to that we have also identified a Density indicator that appears relevant for the ecosystem health assessment in the coastal waters

The Copernicus Marine Service ocean forecasting system for the Mediterranean Sea

The Mediterranean Monitoring and Forecasting Center (MED-MFC) is part of the Copernicus Marine Environment and Monitoring Service (CMEMS) and provides regular and systematic information on the time-evolving Mediterranean Sea physical (including waves) and biogeochemical state. The systems consist of 3 components: 1) Med-Physics, a numerical ocean prediction systems, based on NEMO model, that operationally produces analyses, reanalysis and short term forecasts of the main physical parameters; 2) Med-Biogeochemistry, a biogeochemical analysis, reanalysis and forecasting system based on the Biogeochemical Flux Model (BFM) which provides information on chlorophyll, phosphate, nitrate, primary productivity, oxygen, phytoplankton biomass, pH and pCO2; 3) Med-Waves based on WAM model and providing analysis, forecast and reanalysis products for waves. The systems have been recently upgraded at a resolution of 1/24 degree in the horizontal and 141 vertical levels. The Med-Physics analysis and forecasting system is composed by the hydrodynamic model NEMO 2-way coupled with the third-generation wave model WaveWatchIII and forced by ECMWF atmospheric fields. The model solutions are corrected by the 3DVAR data assimilation system (3D variational scheme adapted to the oceanic assimilation problem) with a daily assimilation cycle of sea level anomaly and vertical profiles of temperature and salinity. The model has a non-linear explicit free surface and it is forced by surface pressure, interactive heat, momentum and water fluxes at the air-sea interface. The biogeochemical analysis and forecasts are produced by means of the MedBFM v2.1 modeling system (i.e. the physical-biogeochemical OGSTM-BFM model coupled with the 3DVARBIO assimilation scheme) forced by the outputs of the Med-Physics product. Seven days of analysis/hindcast and ten days of forecast are bi-weekly produced on Wednesday and on Saturday, with the assimilation of surface chlorophyll concentration from satellite observations. In-situ data are mainly used to estimate model uncertainty at different spatial scales. The Med-Waves modelling system is based on the WAM Cycle 4.5.4 wave model code. It consists of a wave model grid covering the Mediterranean Sea at a 1/24° horizontal resolution, nested to a North Atlantic grid at a 1/6° resolution. The system is forced by ECMWF winds at 1/8°. Refraction due to surface currents is accounted by the system which assimilates altimeter along-track significant wave height observations. On a daily basis, it provides 1-day analysis and 5-day forecast hourly wave parameters. Currently, wave buoy observations of significant wave height and mean wave period along with satellite observations are used to calibrate and validate the Med-waves modelling system.PublishedHalifax, Nova Scotia, Canada4A. Oceanografia e clim

The Mediterranean ocean Forecasting System

The Mediterranean Forecasting System (MFS) is operationally working since year 2000 and it is continuously improved in the frame of international projects. The system is part of the Mediterranean Operational Oceanography Network-MOON and MFS is coordinated and operated by the Italian Group of Operational Oceanography (GNOO). The latest upgrades and integration to MFS has been undertaken in the EU-MERSEA and BOSS4GMES Projects. Since October 2005 ten days forecasts are produced daily as well as 15 days of analyses once a week. The daily forecast and weekly analysis data are available in real time to the users through a dedicated ftp service and every day a web bulletin is published on the web site (http://gnoo.bo.ingv.it/mfs). A continuous evaluation in near real time of the forecasts and analyses produced by MFS has been developed in order to continuously verify the system and to provide useful information to the users. The R&D is focused on different aspects of the system. A new basin scale ocean model nested with operational MERCATOR global model has been developed and run in real time operationally for a test period together with a new assimilation scheme based on the 3DVAR. This system is now under evaluation. Important activities have been carried out to: implement and test a Bayesian methodologies of Ensemble and Super-Ensemble for the Mediterranean sea; produce 20 years of re-analysis; re-formulate the air-sea fluxes bulk formulae; develop dedicated products to support particular request of end users such as: indicators, real time oil spill forecasting, search & rescue.EUROGOOS and European CommissionPublishedExeter, UK4.6. Oceanografia operativa per la valutazione dei rischi in aree marineope

A New Global Ocean Climatology

A new global ocean temperature and salinity climatology is proposed for two time periods: a long time mean using multiple sensor data for the 1900–2017 period and a shorter time mean using only profiling float data for the 2003–2017 period. We use the historical database of World Ocean Database 2018. The estimation approach is novel as an additional quality control procedure is implemented, along with a new mapping algorithm based on Data Interpolating Variational Analysis. The new procedure, in addition to the traditional quality control approach, resulted in low sensitivity in terms of the first guess field choice. The roughness index and the root mean square of residuals are new indices applied to the selection of the free mapping parameters along with sensitivity experiments. Overall, the new estimates were consistent with previous climatologies, but several differences were found. The cause of these discrepancies is difficult to identify due to several differences in the procedures. To minimise these uncertainties, a multi-model ensemble mean is proposed as the least uncertain estimate of the global ocean temperature and salinity climatology

Measuring the Sea: Marsili’s Oceanographic Cruise (1679–80) and the Roots of Oceanography

The first in situ measurements of seawater density that referred to a geographical position at sea and time of the year were carried out by Count Luigi Ferdinando Marsili between 1679 and 1680 in the Adriatic Sea, Aegean Sea, Marmara Sea, and the Bosporus. Not only was this the first investigation with documented oceanographic measurements carried out at stations, but themeasurements were described in such an accurateway that the authorswere able to reconstruct the observations in modern units. These first measurements concern the ‘‘specific gravity’’ of seawaters (i.e., the ratio between fluid densities). The data reported in the historical oceanographic treatise Osservazioni intorno al Bosforo Tracio (Marsili) allowed the reconstruction of the seawater density at different geographic locations between 1679 and 1680. Marsili’s experimental methodology included the collection of surface and deep water samples, the analysis of the samples with a hydrostatic ampoule, and the use of a reference water to standardize the measurements.Acomparison of reconstructed densities with present-day values shows an agreement within 10%–20% uncertainty, owing to various aspects of the measurement methodology that are difficult to reconstruct from the documentary evidence. Marsili also measured the current speed and the depth of the current inversion in the Bosporus, which are consistent with the present-day knowledge. The experimental data collected in the Bosporus enabledMarsili to enunciate a theory on the cause of the two-layer flow at the strait, demonstrated by his laboratory experiment and later confirmed by many analytical and numerical studies.American Meteorological Society.Published845 - 8604A. Oceanografia e climaJCR Journa