Rational dimension of a basis of a regression model for adaptive short-term forecasting the state of a discrete nonstationary dynamic system

Relevance. Today, there are many methodologies for predicting power consumption of various objects. However, there is no a general methodology that is suitable for all types of energy systems, including the sectoral characteristics of small northern settlements and other objects with the stochastic nature of electricity consumption schedules. At the same time, during the development of problem-oriented forecasting methods, it is necessary to take into account computational and statistical features of forecasted time series to the maximum and apply them adequately. The mentioned circumstance prompts the creation of criteria-indicators that allow evaluating the quality of the applied model for solving the forecasting problem, correctness of its construction and correctness of applying a priori information about the object and its physical properties.Aim. Develop and apply the criteria-indicators, which allow evaluating the quality of the forecast regression model and the influence of the dimensionality of such model base on a forecasting error. Methods. The choice of rational dimensionality of the regression model basis for the adaptive forecasting problem is based on the known and developed criteria-indicators. The main provisions of such criteria-indicators were formulated, which provide an assessment of the quality of conditioning of an equivalent square matrix, the presence of uninformative elements of the matrix, and linear dependence of the columns. Results. Based on the analysis of criteria-indicators, the authors selected a rational dimension of the regression model basis for the problem of adaptive short-term forecasting of the state of discrete non-stationary dynamic systems. Conclusions. The authors have previously selected the most promising criteria-indicators and developed a normalized difference factor of diagonal predominance. This allows us to evaluate the influence of the basis size change on the regression model quality when building an approach of adaptive short-term forecasting of electricity consumption by autonomous power systems of small northern settlements on the basis of regression analysis methods. Based on the analysis of criteria-indicators the authors obtained information about the influence of the regression model basis dimension on the forecasting problem solution error. The authors stated the further stages of research to reduce this error. The paper introduces and describes one of the ways to improve the forecasting model quality. The dependence of the forecasting error on the size of the regression model basis were revealed; the criteria-indicators considered in the article were successfully applied. It is confirmed that the pre-selected and developed criteria-indicators make it possible, at the stage of compiling an equivalent square matrix and performing preliminary actions on it, to track changes within the matrix. The changes will lead to improvement in the solution of the problem of adaptive short-term forecasting

TRANSIENT PROCESSES IN ELECTRICAL COMPLEX OF PRODUCTION WELL WITH DOWNHOLE COMPENSATOR OF REACTIVE POWER

Link for citation: Glazyrin A.S., Isaev Yu.N., Kopyrin V.A., Timoshkin V.V., Kladiev S.N., Khamitov R.N., Kovalev V.Z., Losev A.F., Leonov A.P., Popov  E.I. Transient processes in electrical complex of production well with downhole compensator of reactive power. Bulletin of the Tomsk Polytechnic University. Geo Аssets Engineering, 2023, vol. 334, no. 5, рр.168-180. In Rus. The relevance. At the present time at routine complication of technological processes to increase efficiency of production processes due to introduction of new equipment conflicts between functional capabilities of various technical means and their ability to function with specified quality, in specified electromagnetic environment and do not create inadmissible electromagnetic interference to other technical means. The electrical engineering complex for oil production includes a combination of ground and submersible electrical equipment assembled for receiving, transforming electrical energy, controlling its flow, converting electrical energy into mechanical energy and transmitting it to a submersible pump, including various electrical and electronic devices: a control station with a frequency converter, a step-up transformer, a cable line, a submersible electric motor, a downhole reactive power compensator and other devices. Any change in the layout of electrical systems for extracting oil or technical characteristics of the equipment used requires careful analysis of transient processes between the operating modes of electrical equipment in order to prevent the risks of false triggering of electrical equipment protection devices. The purpose: analysis of transient processes in the electrical system of the production well with the downhole reactive power compensator when the power supply is disconnected in order to prevent the risks of false operation of the compensator protection devices. The object: section of a power supply system for a cluster of oil producing wells equipped with electric centrifugal pump installations with downhole reactive power compensators. Methods: positions of theoretical bases of electrical engineering, theory of electric drive, theory of differential equations, numerical methods. Results. The authors developed the mathematical model of the electrical system of the submersible unit for oil production with a downhole reactive power compensator, which enables to investigate transient processes in start-up and shutdown mode of the submersible induction motor. Characteristics of transient processes are obtained in elements of electrical complex of submersible plant for oil production when power supply is switched on and disconnected. It is established that the maximum current surge in the downhole reactive power compensator is 2,56 times with the parameters of the electrical system of the production well accepted in the study. The inventive measures for reducing the number of false actuations of the protection devices are also disclosed

Analytical model of dynamic system "long cable - submersible induction motor with fixed rotor" in polar coordinate system

Relevance. The stock of oil wells in the Russian Federation, where production is carried out with the help of electric centrifugal pumps or electric-driven vane pumps, is expanding every year. This trend will continue for at least a couple of decades. In its turn, the number of wells with readily available oil products in the commissioned stock is decreasing. This leads to the need to improve production quality and reduce energy consumption to maintain profitability and production volumes. This can be achieved by implementing vector energy-efficient control systems for submersible motors based on observers of induction motor state variables. In this case one should take into account transients in the supply cable of considerable length, which transmits energy from a frequency converter to a motor. The observers are based on adjustable mathematical models that describe electrical, electromechanical and mechanical processes in electric drive and related process automation systems as reliably as possible. Using complex and cumbersome adjustable mathematical models in digital signal processors due to limited performance and memory causes objective difficulties in obtaining solutions of increased accuracy in real time. On this basis, the development of an analytical model of the dynamic system "long cable – submersible induction motor with fixed rotor" in the polar coordinate system is an urgent task. Aim. Development of analytical description of the mathematical model of the induction motor with a fixed rotor in the polar coordinate system taking into account the influence of a long cable. Methods. Electric drive theory, electric machine theory, mathematical models of submersible induction motors and reduced long cable model, Vandermonde's determinant, analytical methods for solving differential equations. Result and conclusions. The authors have developed an analytical model of the regulated induction motor with a fixed rotor in the polar coordinate system taking into account the supply cable of considerable length. The developed analytical model is recommended for use in vector energy-efficient electric drive with application of phase discrimination principles taking into account the influence of processes in the supply cable line. Such electric drive has a potential for increasing the profitability of oil production from low- and medium-debt wells

Role of hydrogen bond alternation and charge transfer states in photoactivation of the Orange Carotenoid Protein

Here, we propose a possible photoactivation mechanism of a 35-kDa blue light-triggered photoreceptor, the Orange Carotenoid Protein (OCP), suggesting that the reaction involves the transient formation of a protonated ketocarotenoid (oxocarbenium cation) state. Taking advantage of engineering an OCP variant carrying the Y201W mutation, which shows superior spectroscopic and structural properties, it is shown that the presence of Trp201 augments the impact of one critical H-bond between the ketocarotenoid and the protein. This confers an unprecedented homogeneity of the dark-adapted OCP state and substantially increases the yield of the excited photoproduct S*, which is important for the productive photocycle to proceed. A 1.37 Å crystal structure of OCP Y201W combined with femtosecond time-resolved absorption spectroscopy, kinetic analysis, and deconvolution of the spectral intermediates, as well as extensive quantum chemical calculations incorporating the effect of the local electric field, highlighted the role of charge-transfer states during OCP photoconversion

Role of hydrogen bond alternation and charge transfer states in photoactivation of the Orange Carotenoid Protein

Here, we propose a possible photoactivation mechanism of a 35-kDa blue light-triggered photoreceptor, the Orange Carotenoid Protein (OCP), suggesting that the reaction involves the transient formation of a protonated ketocarotenoid (oxocarbenium cation) state. Taking advantage of engineering an OCP variant carrying the Y201W mutation, which shows superior spectroscopic and structural properties, it is shown that the presence of Trp201 augments the impact of one critical H-bond between the ketocarotenoid and the protein. This confers an unprecedented homogeneity of the dark-adapted OCP state and substantially increases the yield of the excited photoproduct S*, which is important for the productive photocycle to proceed. A 1.37 Å crystal structure of OCP Y201W combined with femtosecond time-resolved absorption spectroscopy, kinetic analysis, and deconvolution of the spectral intermediates, as well as extensive quantum chemical calculations incorporating the effect of the local electric field, highlighted the role of charge-transfer states during OCP photoconversion