Random Walk Theory and Exchange Rate Dynamics in Transition Economies

This paper investigates the validity of the random walk theory in the Euro-Serbian dinar exchange rate market. We apply Andrew Lo and Archie MacKinlay’s (1988) conventional variance ratio test and Jonathan Wright’s (2000) non-parametric ranks and signs based variance ratio tests to the daily Euro/Serbian dinar exchange rate returns using the data from January 2005 - December 2008. Both types of variance ratio tests overwhelmingly reject the random walk hypothesis over the data span. To assess the robustness of our findings, we examine the forecasting performance of a non-linear, nonparametric model in the spirit of Francis Diebold and James Nason (1990) and find that it is able to significantly improve upon the random walk model, thus confirming the existence of foreign exchange market imperfections in a small transition economy such as Serbia. In the last part of the paper, we conduct a comparative study on how our results relate to those of other transition economies in the region.Random walk, Forecasting, Exchange rates, Transition economies, Market efficiency, Artificial neural networks

Toxoplasma gondii infection in slaughter pigs in Serbia

A seroepizootiological study of Toxoplasma gondii infection involving a total of 488 slaughter pigs (468 market-weight pigs and 20 sows) in the Belgrade area, also included examination of the presence of T. gondii in the blood. Blood sampled at the slaughter line was examined for specific antibodies by modified direct agglutination, and blood clots of those seropositive at titres of 1:50-1:12800 were bioassayed in mice. The overall seroprevalence was 9.2%, significantly higher (p = 0.0063) in sows (30.0%) than in market-weight pigs (8.3%). Amongst the 22 bioassays performed, a total of 16 (72.7%) were positive, by observation of T. gondii cysts (12), seropositivity (7, including 3 in which cysts were not detected), and/or detection of T. gondii DNA by real-time PCR (12, including one otherwise negative). The positive bioassays originated from the blood of 12 market-weight pigs and 4 sows. Despite a general increase in the rate of demonstration of T. gondii with the increase in the specific antibody level, the association was not significant (p = 0.101). The risk of infection was 41-fold increased in sows vs market-weight pigs, and 15-fold in pigs from smallholders' finishing type farms vs those from large farrow-to-finish farms. The presence of viable T. gondii in a proportion of the samples indicates that some of the pigs had an active parasitaemia at the time of slaughter, which, along with the seroprevalence established, points to a potential source of human infection in Serbia. This is the first report on parasitaemia in naturally infected swine

A Pork Industry in the Backyard: An Analysis of Toxoplasma gondii Infection in Serbia’s Pigs

As pork is an important source for Toxoplasma gondii infection, we have analyzed T. gondii genotypes and toxoplasmosis prevalence in pigs in Serbia in the context of production statistics and economics to assess the specific risk to public health. Genotyping was performed using MnPCRRFLP; T. gondii-specific IgG antibodies were detected using a modified agglutination test (MAT); and statistical data were extracted from official records and provided by government authorities. The results indicate that, from 2006 to 2021, the median number of annually slaughtered pigs was 5.6 million, yet only 36.1% were processed by abattoirs. The remainder were “backyard pigs” slaughtered on family farms and homesteads. Toxoplasmosis seroprevalence in market-weight (MW) pigs prior to 2006 was 15.2%, and was 15.1% in 2019. The seroprevalence in owned city cats, likely infected by livestock meat, was 33.2%. ToxoDB#1 was identified in pig tissues. The results indicate that backyard pigs are the backbone of the industry and provide as much as 60% of the pork in Serbia. The seroprevalence in pigs and city cats shows that farms are reservoirs for the parasite. Thus, innovative means of reducing T. gondii infection designed with backyard farmers in mind are needed to reduce the risk to public health

Seroprevalence, Direct Detection and Risk Factors for Toxoplasma gondii Infection in Pigs in Serbia, and Influence of Biosecurity Measures

Consumption of Toxoplasma gondii contaminated pork is a major risk factor for human infection. We thus conducted a cross-sectional survey on the seroprevalence of T. gondii infection in a representative sample of slaughter pigs from throughout Serbia and examined the influence of farm biosecurity-related risk factors on infection. In addition, direct detection of the parasite (by mouse bioassay) or its DNA was performed in the hearts of a subset of seropositive sows. The overall seroprevalence in the sample of 825 pigs as determined by the modified agglutination test (MAT) was 16.5%. Older age and inadequate rodent control were independent infection risk factors for pigs. In a subset of 581 pigs with complete biosecurity-related data, in addition to older age, smallholders’ finishing type farms (as opposed to farrow-to-finish), multispecies farming, and origin from Western and Central and South-Eastern Serbia (vs. the Northern region), all increased the risk of infection, while the absence of disinfection boot-dips in front of each barn and Belgrade district origin (vs. the Northern region) were associated with a 62% and 75% lower risk of infection, respectively. Evidence of viable parasites was obtained in 13 (41.9%) of the 31 bioassayed sow hearts, of which by isolation of brain cysts in seven, by detection of T. gondii DNA in an additional four, and by serology in another two. Recovery of brain cysts mostly (5/7) from sows with a MAT titre of ≥1:100 indicates the risk for consumers. These results highlight the public health risk from pork consumption and point to mandatory use of professional rodent control services, abstaining from multispecies farming, keeping disinfection boot-dips clean and freshly refilled, as well as strict implementation of zoo-hygienic measures on smallholders’ farms as specific farm biosecurity measures needed for its reduction

The Programme Budget Model as a Basis for Measuring the Performance of the Public Sector in Transition Economies

Programme budget model is a significant instrument for improving the situation in the public finance system, especially in transition economies. Thus, the process of implementation of reforms and the consolidation of the public sector are essential for the creation of adequate baselines for further sustainable growth and development of transition economies while observing their specificities. Accordingly, the subject of the research is the analysis of the current state of affairs in the process of financial system reforms, that is, public funding with a special focus on the area of budgeting of the higher education in the transition economies of Serbia, Croatia and Hungary. The main objective of the research is determining the performance of the programme budget model in the public sector of the observed transition economies in order to improve public finance management. The research results indicate the adequacy and advantages of using the programme budget model in terms of significant improvement in budgetary performance and results in accordance with the defined programme activities

Entrepreneurial Strategic Orientation: Prerequisite for SMEs Success in IoT and Digital Transformation Sphere?

Entrepreneurial orientation (EO) is a multidimensional construct that reflects a firm’s tendency to be innovative, proactive, and risk-taking. Previous research has demonstrated that companies with a strong EO possess a competitive advantage in the market when compared to those with a conservative approach to management. The objective of this study is to analyse the entrepreneurial orientation of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) using the ENTRE-U scale and to identify the dimensions of EO that are critical for achieving business success in the context of digital transformation and IoT implementation. The identification of these dimensions is facilitated through a survey method and exploratory factor analysis. After administering the ENTRE-U scale to a representative sample of SMEs that use modern technologies, such as IoT, four distinct dimensions of EO emerged. Each dimension of EO has a significant impact on firm performance. By adhering to the established EO dimensions and using the proposed methodology, managers can develop an efficient business model that aligns with the current digital market demands, enhances SMEs (survival, resilience, and sustainability), and addresses the high uncertainty prevalent in today’s business environment

Spectroscopic and theoretical study of asymmetric 1,1'-diaminoferrocene conjugates of alpha-amino acids

The synthesis and characterization of asymmetric 1,1'-diaminoferroceneconjugates of alpha-amino acids Boe-AA-NH-Fn-NH-Ac [AA = Gly (10), Ala(11), D-Ala (12), Val (13), Fn = 1,1'-ferrocenediyl] is reported. Theconformational preferences of these organometallic peptidomimetics insolution are determined experimentally by circular dichroismspectroscopy, IR spectroscopy, and NMR spectroscopy and corroboratedtheoretically by DFT calculations

Distribution of sandflies (Diptera, Psychodidae) in two Ionian islands and Northern Greece

A field study on the distribution of phlebotomine sandflies was carried out during summer months of 2009 and 2010 in eight sites in two Ionian islands and in northern Greece. A total of 490 sandflies (74.5% females) were collected. Six species of the Phlebotomus genus and two of the Sergentomyia genus were identified. The species with the widest distribution in the islands were Phlebotomus neglectus (32.8%), Phlebotomus similis (30.3%), Phlebotomus tobbi (16.7%), and P. perfiliewi (15.9%), whereas P. simici (50%), P. neglectus (24.5%), and P. tobbi (9.6%) predominated in the mainland. As most of these species are proven or suspected vectors of human and animal pathogens, prevention measures have to be taken in these areas during the summer months when sandflies are active