Evaluating the impact of DREAMS on HIV incidence among adolescent girls and young women: A population-based cohort study in Kenya and South Africa.

BACKGROUND: Through a multisectoral approach, the DREAMS Partnership aimed to reduce HIV incidence among adolescent girls and young women (AGYW) by 40% over 2 years in high-burden districts across sub-Saharan Africa. DREAMS promotes a combination package of evidence-based interventions to reduce individual, family, partner, and community-based drivers of young women's heightened HIV risk. We evaluated the impact of DREAMS on HIV incidence among AGYW and young men in 2 settings. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We directly estimated HIV incidence rates among open population-based cohorts participating in demographic and HIV serological surveys from 2006 to 2018 annually in uMkhanyakude (KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa) and over 6 rounds from 2010 to 2019 in Gem (Siaya, Kenya). We compared HIV incidence among AGYW aged 15 to 24 years before DREAMS and up to 3 years after DREAMS implementation began in 2016. We investigated the timing of any change in HIV incidence and whether the rate of any change accelerated during DREAMS implementation. Comparable analyses were also conducted for young men (20 to 29/34 years). In uMkhanyakude, between 5,000 and 6,000 AGYW were eligible for the serological survey each year, an average of 85% were contacted, and consent rates varied from 37% to 67%. During 26,395 person-years (py), HIV incidence was lower during DREAMS implementation (2016 to 2018) than in the previous 5-year period among 15- to 19-year-old females (4.5 new infections per 100 py as compared with 2.8; age-adjusted rate ratio (aRR) = 0.62, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.48 to 0.82), and lower among 20- to 24-year-olds (7.1/100 py as compared with 5.8; aRR = 0.82, 95% CI 0.65 to 1.04). Declines preceded DREAMS introduction, beginning from 2012 to 2013 among the younger and 2014 for the older women, with no evidence of more rapid decline during DREAMS implementation. In Gem, between 8,515 and 11,428 AGYW were eligible each survey round, an average of 34% were contacted and offered an HIV test, and consent rates ranged from 84% to 99%. During 10,382 py, declines in HIV incidence among 15- to 19-year-olds began before DREAMS and did not change after DREAMS introduction. Among 20- to 24-year-olds in Gem, HIV incidence estimates were lower during DREAMS implementation (0.64/100 py) compared with the pre-DREAMS period (0.94/100 py), with no statistical evidence of a decline (aRR = 0.69, 95% CI 0.53 to 2.18). Among young men, declines in HIV incidence were greater than those observed among AGYW and also began prior to DREAMS investments. Study limitations include low study power in Kenya and the introduction of other interventions such as universal treatment for HIV during the study period. CONCLUSIONS: Substantial declines in HIV incidence among AGYW were observed, but most began before DREAMS introduction and did not accelerate in the first 3 years of DREAMS implementation. Like the declines observed among young men, they are likely driven by earlier and ongoing investments in HIV testing and treatment. Longer-term implementation and evaluation are needed to assess the impact of such a complex HIV prevention intervention and to help accelerate reductions in HIV incidence among young women

Impact of DREAMS interventions on attitudes towards gender norms among adolescent girls and young women: Findings from a prospective cohort in Kenya.

The DREAMS partnership aims to deliver a comprehensive package to reduce HIV incidence among adolescent girls and young women (AGYW), including through shifting gender norms. We evaluate DREAMS' effect on attitudes towards gender norms in two Kenyan settings. AGYW aged 15-22 in Nairobi (n = 852) and Gem (n = 761) were randomly selected for cohort enrolment in 2017-18 and followed-up to 2019. We described the proportion of AGYW and their male peers with equitable attitudes towards gender norms, using an adapted version of the GEM scale. We estimated the association between self-reported invitation to DREAMS (in 2017-18) and AGYW's attitudes towards two dimensions of gender norms, and then applied a causal inference framework to estimate the difference in the proportion of AGYW with equitable attitudes under the counterfactual scenarios that all versus none were DREAMS beneficiaries. We estimated that overall, 90.2% versus 87.1% of AGYW would have equitable norms around sexual and reproductive health decision-making in Nairobi if all versus none were DREAMS beneficiaries (+3.1; 95%CI:-2.5, +9.0). In Gem, we estimated a risk difference of +1.0 (89.6% vs 88.6%, 95%CI: -3.6,+5.6). There was no evidence for an effect of DREAMS on attitudes towards violence-related norms (Nairobi: 82.7% vs 82.2%, +0.5; 95%CI: -5.3,+6.5; Gem: 44.3% vs 48.2%, -3.9; 95%CI: -11.7,+3.0). We found no evidence of an impact of DREAMS invitation on individual attitudes towards gender norms. In some cases, equitable attitudes at enrolment left limited scope for improvement, and additional effort may be required to shift inequitable violence attitudes among both AGYW and their male peers

Impact of the DREAMS Partnership on social support and general self-efficacy among adolescent girls and young women: causal analysis of population-based cohorts in Kenya and South Africa.

INTRODUCTION: The Determined, Resilient, Empowered, AIDS-free, Mentored and Safe (DREAMS) Partnership aimed to influence psychosocial processes that promote empowerment among adolescent girls and young women (AGYW), and reduce HIV incidence. We estimated the impact of DREAMS on aspects of AGYW's collective and individual agency (specifically, social support and self-efficacy), in three settings where DREAMS was implemented from 2016 until at least end 2018. METHODS: Research cohorts of ~1500 AGYW aged 13-22 were randomly selected from demographic platforms in Kenya (Nairobi; Gem) and South Africa (uMkhanyakude) and followed up from 2017 to 2019. Social support was based on questions about female networks and access to safe places to meet with peers; general self-efficacy was measured using a scale previously validated in other settings. We conducted multivariable logistic regression, and estimated the causal effect of invitation to DREAMS on each outcome in 2018 and 2019 by comparing counter-factual scenarios in which all, vs no, AGYW were DREAMS invitees. RESULTS: In Nairobi, Gem and uMkhanyakude, respectively, 74%, 57% and 53% were invited to DREAMS by 2018. Social support was higher among DREAMS invitees versus non-invitees (eg, adjusted OR 2.0 (95% CI 1.6 to 2.6), Gem, 2018). In 2018, DREAMS increased social support in all settings and age groups, for example, from 28% if none were DREAMS invitees to 43% if all were invitees (+15% (95% CI 10% to 20%)) in Gem. Effects were strongest in Kenya, but weakened in 2019, particularly among older AGYW. In uMkhanyakude, DREAMS invitees had greater self-efficacy compared with non-invitees in 2018 (+9% (95% CI 3% to 13%), 2018) but less so in 2019. In Kenyan settings, there was weak evidence for impact on self-efficacy among younger AGYW in Gem (+6% (95% CI 0% to 13%)) and older AGYW in Nairobi (+9% (95% CI -3% to +20%)) in 2019. CONCLUSIONS: DREAMS impacted on social support and, less consistently, on self-efficacy. Weakening effects over time may reflect changes in access to safe spaces and social networks as AGYW age and change circumstances, and withdrawal of DREAMS from uMkhanyakude in 2018, highlighting the importance of programme sustainability and improving programming for older participants

Awareness and uptake of the Determined, Resilient, Empowered, AIDS-free, Mentored and Safe HIV prevention package over time among population-based cohorts of young women in Kenya and South Africa.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate uptake of a complex intervention for HIV prevention among general populations of adolescent girls and young women (AGYW) in three diverse settings. DESIGN: Cohorts of ∼1500 AGYW were randomly selected from demographic platforms in Kenya (Nairobi and Siaya) and South Africa (uMkhanyakude, KwaZulu-Natal). METHODS: AGYW aged 13/15-22 years were enrolled in 2017 (Nairobi and uMkha-nyakude) or 2018 (Siaya), with annual follow-up to 2019. We describe awareness of DREAMS (Determined, Resilient, Empowered, AIDS-free, Mentored and Safe), self-reported invitation to participate, and uptake of DREAMS interventions by: categories and levels of the PEPFAR core package;number of 'primary' interventions (seven in Kenya;five in South Africa). Analyses were stratified by year invited and age at cohort enrolment. RESULTS: Proportions aware and invited to DREAMS increased across all settings, to ≥ 83% aware and ≥ 53% invited by 2018 (highest among AGYW aged 13-17 years, e.g. 63 vs. 40% among 18-22 s, uMkhanyakude). HIV testing, school-based interventions and social protection were the most accessed categories, while differences in uptake by DREAMS invitation were greatest for novel DREAMS interventions, for example, social asset building (76% among those invited in 2017 and 2018 vs. 9% among those never-invited in Nairobi). Although few DREAMS invitees accessed all intended primary interventions by 2019 (2% of 15-17 s and 5% of 18-22 s in Gem), many accessed at least three interventions, including combinations across individual, family and community levels. CONCLUSION: Over time, DREAMS reached high proportions of AGYW in all settings, particularly younger AGYW. Participation in combinations of interventions improved but uptake of the complete primary packages remained low

DREAMS impact on HIV status knowledge and sexual risk among cohorts of young women in Kenya and South Africa.

OBJECTIVES: We sought evidence of DREAMS' impact on uptake of services and sexual risk among adolescent-girls-and-young-women (AGYW). DESIGN: Cohorts of AGYW aged 13-22 years were randomly selected in 2017-2018 and followed-up to 2019; 1081 in Nairobi, Kenya;1171 in Gem, western Kenya;and 2184 in uMkhanyakude, South Africa. METHODS: Outcomes were knowledge of HIV status, condomless sex (past 12 months), lifetime partners, transactional sex (past 12 months), and awareness and use of condoms and pre-exposure-prophylaxis (PrEP). Using a causal inference framework, we estimated the proportions with each outcome if all vs. none were DREAMS invitees by 2018. RESULTS: Among AGYW followed up in 2019, the percentage invited to DREAMS by 2018 was 74, 57, and 53% in Nairobi, Gem, and uMkhanyakude, respectively. By 2018, the estimated percentages of AGYW who would know their HIV status, comparing the scenarios that all vs. none were DREAMS invitees, were 86 vs. 56% in Nairobi, 80 vs. 68% in Gem, and 56 vs. 49% in uMkhanyakude. By 2019, awareness of condoms and PrEP was high among DREAMS invitees, but recent participation in condom promotion activities was less than 50% and recent PrEP use was around 0-10%. In Gem, there was evidence of a reduction attributable to DREAMS in condomless sex, and among younger AGYW in the number of lifetime partners;in Nairobi evidence of a reduction in condomless sex among sexually active older AGYW;and in uMkhanya-kude no evidence that DREAMS changed these outcomes. CONCLUSION: Alongside sustaining high levels of knowledge of HIV status, more is needed to link AGYW into prevention methods such as PrEP and condoms.Comprehensive HIV prevention promotes safer sexual partnerships, but poverty, social norms, and inequalities limit AGYW's prevention choices

AGYW attitudes towards gender norms at enrolment (2017 or 2018) and in 2019, stratified by setting and age group and compared to attitudes among young men in Nairobi.

1A. Percent of AGYW participants with equitable attitudes towards SRH decision-making norms in Gem and Nairobi (left) and of young male participants in Nairobi (right). 1B. Percent of AGYW participants with equitable attitudes towards violence norms in Gem and Nairobi (left) and of young male participants in Nairobi (right).</p

Sensitivity analysis: Estimated causal effect of DREAMS intervention access (“per protocol”) on individual attitudes towards gender norms in 2019.

Sensitivity analysis: Estimated causal effect of DREAMS intervention access (“per protocol”) on individual attitudes towards gender norms in 2019.</p

GEM Scale items used to measure each dimension of attitudes towards gender norms.

GEM Scale items used to measure each dimension of attitudes towards gender norms.</p

Sensitivity analysis: Estimated causal effect of DREAMS on individual attitudes towards gender norms in 2019, using different analysis approaches.

Sensitivity analysis: Estimated causal effect of DREAMS on individual attitudes towards gender norms in 2019, using different analysis approaches.</p