Reconstructing eruptive source parameters from tephra deposit: a numerical study of medium-sized explosive eruptions at Etna volcano

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IMEX_SfloW2D 1.0: a depth-averaged numerical flow model for pyroclastic avalanches

Abstract. Pyroclastic avalanches are a type of granular flow generated at active volcanoes by different mechanisms, including the collapse of steep pyroclastic deposits (e.g., scoria and ash cones), fountaining during moderately explosive eruptions, and crumbling and gravitational collapse of lava domes. They represent end-members of gravity-driven pyroclastic flows characterized by relatively small volumes (less than about 1 Mm3) and relatively thin (1–10 m) layers at high particle concentration (10–50 vol %), manifesting strong topographic control. The simulation of their dynamics and mapping of their hazards pose several different problems to researchers and practitioners, mostly due to the complex and still poorly understood rheology of the polydisperse granular mixture and to the interaction with the complex natural three-dimensional topography, which often causes rapid rheological changes. In this paper, we present IMEX_SfloW2D, a depth-averaged flow model describing the granular mixture as a single-phase granular fluid. The model is formulated in absolute Cartesian coordinates (whereby the fluid flow equations are integrated along the direction of gravity) and can be solved over a topography described by a digital elevation model. The numerical discretization and solution algorithms are formulated to allow for a robust description of wet–dry conditions (thus allowing us to accurately track the front propagation) and an implicit solution to the nonlinear friction terms. Owing to these features, the model is able to reproduce steady solutions, such as the triggering and stopping phases of the flow, without the need for empirical conditions. Benchmark cases are discussed to verify the numerical code implementation and to demonstrate the main features of the new model. A preliminary application to the simulation of the 11 February pyroclastic avalanche at the Etna volcano (Italy) is finally presented. In the present formulation, a simple semi-empirical friction model (Voellmy–Salm rheology) is implemented. However, the modular structure of the code facilitates the implementation of more specific and calibrated rheological models for pyroclastic avalanches

IMEX_SfloW2D v2: a depth-averaged numerical flow model for volcanic gas–particle flows over complex topographies and water

We present developments to the physical model and the open-source numerical code IMEX_SfloW2D (de' Michieli Vitturi et al., 2019). These developments consist of a generalization of the depth-averaged (shallow-water) fluid equations to describe a polydisperse fluid–solid mixture, including terms for sedimentation and entrainment, transport equations for solid particles of different sizes, transport equations for different components of the carrier phase, and an equation for temperature/energy. Of relevance for the simulation of volcanic mass flows, vaporization and entrainment of water are implemented in the new model. The model can be easily adapted to simulate a wide range of volcanic mass flows (pyroclastic avalanches, lahars, pyroclastic surges), and here we present its application to transient dilute pyroclastic density currents (PDCs). The numerical algorithm and the code have been improved to allow for simulation of sub- to supercritical regimes and to simplify the setting of initial and boundary conditions. The code is open-source. The results of synthetic numerical benchmarks demonstrate the robustness of the numerical code in simulating transcritical flows interacting with the topography. Moreover, they highlight the importance of simulating transient in comparison to steady-state flows and flows in 2D versus 1D. Finally, we demonstrate the model capabilities to simulate a complex natural case involving the propagation of PDCs over the sea surface and across topographic obstacles, through application to Krakatau volcano, showing the relevance, at a large scale, of non-linear fluid dynamic features, such as hydraulic jumps and von Kármán vortices, to flow conditions such as velocity and runout

Grain size distribution uncertainty quantification in volcanic ash dispersal and deposition from weak plumes

We present the results of uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis applied to volcanic ash dispersal from weak plumes with focus on the uncertainties associated to the original grain size distribution of the mixture. The Lagrangian particle model Lagrangian Particles Advection Code is used to simulate the transport of inertial particles under the action of realistic atmospheric conditions. The particle motion equations are derived by expressing the particle acceleration as the sum of forces acting along its trajectory, with the drag force calculated as a function of particle diameter, density, shape, and Reynolds number. Simulations are representative of a weak plume event of Mount Etna (Italy) and aimed at quantifying the effect on the dispersal process of the uncertainty in the mean and standard deviation of a lognormal function describing the initial grain size distribution and in particle sphericity. In order to analyze the sensitivity of particle dispersal to these uncertain variables with a reasonable number of simulations, response surfaces in the parameter space are built by using the generalized polynomial chaos expansion technique. The mean diameter and standard deviation of particle size distribution, and their probability density functions, at various distances from the source, both airborne and on ground, are quantified. Results highlight that uncertainty ranges in these quantities are drastically reduced with distance from source, making them largely dependent just on the location. Moreover, at a given distance from source, the distribution is mostly controlled by particle sphericity, particularly on the ground, whereas in air also mean diameter and sorting play a main role

Conduit geometry and evolution of effusion rate during basaltic effusive events: Insights from numerical modeling

The dynamics of effusive events is controlled by the interplay between conduit geometry and source conditions. Dyke-like geometries have been commonly employed for describing conduits during effusive eruptions, but their depth-dependent and temporal modifications are largely unknown. Here we present a novel model that describes the evolution of conduit geometry during effusive eruptions by using a quasisteady state approach based on a 1D conduit model and appropriate criteria to model the geometric evolution of the conduit due to fluid shear stress and elastic deformation. Such approach provides time-dependent trends for effusion rate, conduit geometry, exit velocity and gas flow, among other output variables. Fluid shear stress leads to upward widening conduits, whereas elastic deformation becomes relevant only during final phases of the eruptions. Since the model is able to reproduce different trends of effusion rate, it was employed for addressing the effects of magma source conditions and conduit properties on the main characteristics of the resulting effusive eruptions (e.g. duration, erupted mass, maximum effusion rate). We show that the total erupted mass is mainly controlled by magma reservoir dimensions and their conditions before the eruption (i.e., initial overpressure), whereas conduit processes and geometry are able to affect the magma withdrawal rate and thus the eruption duration and effusion rate. The resulting effusion rate trends were classified in different types, and associated to the curves described in the literature for different volcanic events. Results well reproduce these trends and provide new insights for interpreting them, highlighting the importance of reservoir overpressure and the initial dimensions of the feeding dyke on the resulting effusion rate curve

Retrieval and intercomparison of volcanic SO2 injection height and eruption time from satellite maps and ground-based observations

Syneruptive gas flux time series can, in principle, be retrieved from satellite maps of SO2 collected during and immediately after volcanic eruptions, and used to gain insights into the volcanic processes which drive the volcanic activity. Determination of the age and height of volcanic plumes are key prerequisites for such calculations. However, these parameters are challenging to constrain using satellite-based techniques. Here, we use imagery from OMI and GOME-2 satellite sensors and a novel numerical procedure based on back-trajectory analysis to calculate plume height as a function of position at the satellite measurement time together with plume injection height and time at a volcanic vent location. We applied this new procedure to three Etna eruptions (12 August 2011, 18 March 2012 and 12 April 2013) and compared our results with independent satellite and ground-based estimations. We also compare our injection height time-series with measurements of volcanic tremor, which reflects the eruption intensity, showing a good match between these two datasets. Our results are a milestone in progressing towards reliable determination of gas flux data from satellite-derived SO2 maps during volcanic eruptions, which would be of great value for operational management of explosive eruptions.1) European Research Council under the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme (FP/2.007-2013)/ERC Grant Agreement no. 279802, project 283 CO2Volc. 2) MEDiterranean SUpersite Volcanoes 280 (MED-SUV) WP 3.3.3Published79-915V. Dinamica dei processi eruttivi e post-eruttiviJCR Journa

Effect of particle volume fraction on the settling velocity of volcanic ash particles: insights from joint experimental and numerical simulations

Most of the current ash transport and dispersion models neglect particle-fluid (two-way) and particle-fluid plus particle-particle (four-way) reciprocal interactions during particle fallout from volcanic plumes. These interactions, a function of particle concentration in the plume, could play an important role, explaining, for example, discrepancies between observed and modelled ash deposits. Aiming at a more accurate prediction of volcanic ash dispersal and sedimentation, the settling of ash particles at particle volume fractions (phi(p)) ranging 10(-7)-10(-3) was performed in laboratory experiments and reproduced by numerical simulations that take into account first the two-way and then the four-way coupling. Results show that the velocity of particles settling together can exceed the velocity of particles settling individually by up to 4 times for phi(p) similar to 10(-3). Comparisons between experimental and simulation results reveal that, during the sedimentation process, the settling velocity is largely enhanced by particle-fluid interactions but partly hindered by particle-particle interactions with increasing phi(p). Combining the experimental and numerical results, we provide an empirical model allowing correction of the settling velocity of particles of any size, density, and shape, as a function of phi(p). These corrections will impact volcanic plume modelling results as well as remote sensing retrieval techniques for plume parameters

A combined petrological and numerical approach to investigate basaltic Plinian eruptions at Masaya Caldera, Nicaragua

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MrLavaLoba: A new probabilistic model for the simulation of lava flows as a settling process

A new code to simulate lava flow spread, MrLavaLoba, is presented. In the code, erupted lava is itemized in parcels having an elliptical shape and prescribed volume. New parcels bud from existing ones according to a probabilistic law influenced by the local steepest slope direction and by tunable input settings. MrLavaLoba must be accounted among the probabilistic codes for the simulation of lava flows, because it is not intended to mimic the actual process of flowing or to provide directly the progression with time of the flow field, but rather to guess the most probable inundated area and final thickness of the lava deposit. The code's flexibility allows it to produce variable lava flow spread and emplacement according to different dynamics (e.g. pahoehoe or channelized-‘a‘ā). For a given scenario, it is shown that model outputs converge, in probabilistic terms, towards a single solution. The code is applied to real cases in Hawaii and Mt. Etna, and the obtained maps are shown.Published323-3345V. Processi eruttivi e post-eruttiviJCR Journa