Using co-production to improve the appropriate use of sub-seasonal forecasts in Africa

Forecasts on sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales have huge potential to aid preparedness and disaster risk reduction planning decisions in a variety of sectors. However, realising this potential depends on the provision of reliable information that can be appropriately applied in the decision-making context of users. This study describes the African SWIFT (Science for Weather Information and Forecasting Techniques) forecasting testbed which brings together researchers, forecast producers and users from a range of African and UK institutions. The forecasting testbed is piloting the provision of real-time, bespoke S2S forecast products to decision-makers in Africa. Drawing on data from the kick-off workshop and initial case study examples, this study critically reflects on the co-production process. Specifically, having direct access to real-time data has allowed user-guided iterations to the spatial scale, timing, visualisation and communication of forecast products to make them more actionable for users. Some key lessons for effective co-production are emerging. First, it is critical to ensure there is sufficient resource to support co-production, especially in the early co-exploration of needs. Second, all the groups in the co-production process require capacity building to effectively work in new knowledge systems. Third, evaluation should be ongoing and combine meteorological verification with decision-makers feedback. Ensuring the sustainability of project-initiated services within the testbed hinges on integrating the knowledge-exchanges between individuals in the co-production process into shaping sustainable pathways for improved operational S2S forecasting within African institutions

Summary baseline for AMMA-2050

The report forms a summary baseline for AMMA-2050, supporting the monitoring of impacts over the course of the four-year project. The contents are structured around the programme's logframe, outlining baselines for the project in terms of impacts, outcomes and outputs. Data to inform the baseline are drawn from a range of sources including: a summary of current scientific knowledge about future climate in West Africa; a range of project activities, including stakeholder engagement meetings and a series of key informant interviews; and a number of complementary initiatives

Climate predictions in a forecast based action (FbA) pilot within the Greater Horn of Africa; Experiences from ForPAc and Down2Earth projects

Skillful weather and climate forecasts, if utilized effectively, have the potential to improve preparedness and disaster risk reduction. Forecast-based Action (FbA) is a framework for aiding decisions on preparedness in advance of weather/climate hazards, through use of forecasts. Here, we present a summary of research results and pilot project work within the Arid and Semi-Arid Land (ASAL) areas of Kenya conducted under the Towards Forecast-based Preparedness and Action (ForPAc) project. We also present opportunities for scaling up FbA across the Greater Horn of Africa region through leveraging on connected projects and initiatives like Down2Earth. Skill assessment of a pool of weather/climate models has established the most skilful multi-model combinations for monthly-seasonal timescale. Co-production initiatives between forecast users and producers established the forecast variables best aligned with Kenya’s existing Drought Early Warning Systems (DEWS); Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) and soil moisture, as well as optimum forecast delivery time required by the DEWS processes. Our analysis shows that rainfall forecasts have skill across ‘seamless’ sub-seasonal to seasonal lead times, offering the potential to improve the anticipatory actions within the DEWS of Kitui county of Kenya. Working with multiple stake-holders from across local and national government, humanitarian agencies, forecasting services and climate researchers, we have explored the potential for a more anticipatory, proactive DEWS using forecast information. The Down2Earth project, which aims at translating climate information for adaptation and climate-resilience across decision-making levels is leveraging on gains of ForPAc by advancing FbA approaches within the rural communities of Kenya, Somalia and Ethiopia. To facilitate the institutionalization of FbA, we have developed a regional roadmap to guide implementation within National, regional and international humanitarian actors