Constraints on ship NOx emissions in Europe using GEOS-Chem and OMI satellite NO2 observations

We present a top-down ship NOx emission inventory for the Baltic Sea, the North Sea, the Bay of Biscay and the Mediterranean Sea based on satellite-observed tropospheric NO2 columns of the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) for 2005–2006. We improved the representation of ship emissions in the GEOS-Chem chemistry transport model, and compared simulated NO2 columns to consistent satellite observations. Relative differences between simulated and observed NO2 columns have been used to constrain ship emissions in four European seas (the Baltic Sea, the North Sea, the Bay of Biscay and the Mediterranean Sea) using a mass-balance approach, and accounting for non-linear sensitivities to changing emissions in both model and satellite retrieval. These constraints are applied to 39 % of total top-down European ship NOx emissions, which amount to 0.96 Tg N for 2005, and 1.0 Tg N for 2006 (11–15% lower than the bottom-up EMEP ship emission inventory). Our results indicate that EMEP emissions in the Mediterranean Sea are too high (by 60%) and misplaced by up to 150 km, which can have important consequences for local air quality simulations. In the North Sea ship track, our top-down emissions amount to 0.05 Tg N for 2005 (35% lower than EMEP). Increased top-down emissions were found for the Baltic Sea and the Bay of Biscay ship tracks, with totals in these tracks of 0.05 Tg N (131% higher than EMEP) and 0.08 Tg N for 2005 (128% higher than EMEP), respectively. Our study explicitly accounts for the (non-linear) sensitivity of satellite retrievals to changes in the a priori NO2 profiles, as satellite observations are never fully independent of model information (i.e. assumptions on vertical NO2 profiles). Our study provides for the first time a space-based, top-down ship NOx emission inventory, and can serve as a framework for future studies to constrain ship emissions using satellite NO2 observations in other seas

Constraints on ship NOx emissions in Europe using GEOS-Chem and OMI satellite NO2 observations

We present a top-down ship NOx emission inventory for the Baltic Sea, the North Sea, the Bay of Biscay and the Mediterranean Sea based on satellite-observed tropospheric NO2 columns of the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) for 2005–2006. We improved the representation of ship emissions in the GEOS-Chem chemistry transport model, and compared simulated NO2 columns to consistent satellite observations. Relative differences between simulated and observed NO2 columns have been used to constrain ship emissions in four European seas (the Baltic Sea, the North Sea, the Bay of Biscay and the Mediterranean Sea) using a mass-balance approach, and accounting for nonlinear sensitivities to changing emissions in both model and satellite retrieval. These constraints are applied to 39% of total top-down European ship NOx emissions, which amount to 0.96 TgN for 2005, and 1.0 TgN for 2006 (11–15% lower than the bottom-up EMEP ship emission inventory). Our results indicate that EMEP emissions in the Mediterranean Sea are too high (by 60 %) and misplaced by up to 150 km, which can have important consequences for local air quality simulations. In the North Sea ship track, our top-down emissions amount to 0.05 TgN for 2005 (35% lower than EMEP). Increased top-down emissions were found for the Baltic Sea and the Bay of Biscay ship tracks, with totals in these tracks of 0.05 TgN (131% higher than EMEP) and 0.08 TgN for 2005 (128% higher than EMEP), respectively. Our study explicitly accounts for the (non-linear) sensitivity of satellite retrievals to changes in the a priori NO2 profiles, as satellite observations are never fully independent of model information (i.e. assumptions on vertical NO2 profiles). Our study provides for the first time a space-based, top-down ship NOx emission inventory, and can serve as a framework for future studies to constrain ship emissions using satellite NO2 observations in other seas

Worldwide biogenic soil NOx emissions inferred from OMI NO2 observations

Biogenic NOx emissions from soils are a large natural source with substantial uncertainties in global bottom-up estimates (ranging from 4 to 15 Tg N yr-1). We reduce this range in emission estimates, and present a top-down soil NOx emission inventory for 2005 based on retrieved tropospheric NO2 columns from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI). We use a state-of-science soil NOx emission inventory (Hudman et al., 2012) as a priori in the GEOS-Chem chemistry transport model to identify 11 regions where tropospheric NO2 columns are dominated by soil NOx emissions. Strong correlations between soil NOx emissions and simulated NO2 columns indicate that spatial patterns in simulated NO2 columns in these regions indeed reflect the underlying soil NOx emissions. Subsequently, we use a mass-balance approach to constrain emissions for these 11 regions on all major continents using OMI observed and GEOS-Chem simulated tropospheric NO2 columns. We find that responses of simulated NO2 columns to changing NOx emissions are suppressed over low NOx regions, and account for these non-linearities in our inversion approach. In general, our approach suggests that emissions need to be increased in most regions. Our OMI top-down soil NOx inventory amounts to 10.0 Tg N for 2005 when only constraining the 11 regions, and 12.9 Tg N when extrapolating the constraints globally. Substantial regional differences exist (ranging from -40% to +90%), and globally our top-down inventory is 4–35% higher than the GEOS-Chem a priori (9.6 Tg N yr-1). We evaluate NO2 concentrations simulated with our new OMI top-down inventory against surface NO2 measurements from monitoring stations in Africa, the USA and Europe. Although this comparison is complicated by several factors, we find an encouraging improved agreement when using the OMI top-down inventory compared to using the a priori inventory. To our knowledge, this study provides, for the first time, specific constraints on soil NOx emissions on all major continents using OMI NO2 columns. Our results rule out the low end of reported soil NOx emission estimates, and suggest that global emissions are most likely around 12.9 ± 3.9 Tg N yr-1

Accounting for non-linear chemistry of ship plumes in the GEOS-Chem global chemistry transport model

We present a computationally efficient approach to account for the non-linear chemistry occurring during the dispersion of ship exhaust plumes in a global 3-D model of atmospheric chemistry (GEOS-Chem). We use a plume-in-grid formulation where ship emissions age chemically for 5 h before being released in the global model grid. Besides reducing the original ship NOx emissions in GEOS-Chem, our approach also releases the secondary compounds ozone and HNO3, produced during the 5 h after the original emissions, into the model. We applied our improved method and also the widely used "instant dilution" approach to a 1-yr GEOS-Chem simulation of global tropospheric ozone-NOx-VOC-aerosol chemistry. We also ran simulations with the standard model (emitting 10 molecules O3 and 1 molecule HNO3 per ship NOx molecule), and a model without any ship emissions at all. The model without any ship emissions simulates up to 0.1 ppbv (or 50%) lower NOx concentrations over the North Atlantic in July than our improved GEOS-Chem model. "Instant dilution" overestimates NOx concentrations by 0.1 ppbv (50%) and ozone by 3–5 ppbv (10–25%), compared to our improved model over this region. These conclusions are supported by comparing simulated and observed NOx and ozone concentrations in the lower troposphere over the Pacific Ocean. The comparisons show that the improved GEOS-Chem model simulates NOx concentrations in between the instant dilution model and the model without ship emissions, which results in lower O3 concentrations than the instant dilution model. The relative differences in simulated NOx and ozone between our improved approach and instant dilution are smallest over strongly polluted seas (e.g. North Sea), suggesting that accounting for in-plume chemistry is most relevant for pristine marine areas

Constraints on ship NOx emissions in Europe using GEOS-Chem and OMI satellite NO2 observations

We present a top-down ship NOx emission inventory for the Baltic Sea, the North Sea, the Bay of Biscay and the Mediterranean Sea based on satellite-observed tropospheric NO2 columns of the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) for 2005–2006. We improved the representation of ship emissions in the GEOS-Chem chemistry transport model, and compared simulated NO2 columns to consistent satellite observations. Relative differences between simulated and observed NO2 columns have been used to constrain ship emissions in four European seas (the Baltic Sea, the North Sea, the Bay of Biscay and the Mediterranean Sea) using a mass-balance approach, and accounting for non-linear sensitivities to changing emissions in both model and satellite retrieval. These constraints are applied to 39 % of total top-down European ship NOx emissions, which amount to 0.96 Tg N for 2005, and 1.0 Tg N for 2006 (11–15% lower than the bottom-up EMEP ship emission inventory). Our results indicate that EMEP emissions in the Mediterranean Sea are too high (by 60%) and misplaced by up to 150 km, which can have important consequences for local air quality simulations. In the North Sea ship track, our top-down emissions amount to 0.05 Tg N for 2005 (35% lower than EMEP). Increased top-down emissions were found for the Baltic Sea and the Bay of Biscay ship tracks, with totals in these tracks of 0.05 Tg N (131% higher than EMEP) and 0.08 Tg N for 2005 (128% higher than EMEP), respectively. Our study explicitly accounts for the (non-linear) sensitivity of satellite retrievals to changes in the a priori NO2 profiles, as satellite observations are never fully independent of model information (i.e. assumptions on vertical NO2 profiles). Our study provides for the first time a space-based, top-down ship NOx emission inventory, and can serve as a framework for future studies to constrain ship emissions using satellite NO2 observations in other seas