The gut microbiota as an early predictor of COVID-19 severity

Several studies reported alterations of the human gut microbiota (GM) during COVID-19. To evaluate the potential role of the GM as an early predictor of COVID-19 at disease onset, we analyzed gut microbial samples of 315 COVID-19 patients that differed in disease severity. We observed significant variations in microbial diversity and composition associated with increasing disease severity, as the reduction of short-chain fatty acid producers such as Faecalibacterium and Ruminococcus, and the growth of pathobionts as Anaerococcus and Campylobacter. Notably, we developed a multi-class machine-learning classifier, specifically a convolutional neural network, which achieved an 81.5% accuracy rate in predicting COVID-19 severity based on GM composition at disease onset. This achievement highlights its potential as a valuable early biomarker during the first week of infection. These findings offer promising insights into the intricate relationship between GM and COVID-19, providing a potential tool for optimizing patient triage and streamlining healthcare during the pandemic.IMPORTANCEEfficient patient triage for COVID-19 is vital to manage healthcare resources effectively. This study underscores the potential of gut microbiota (GM) composition as an early biomarker for COVID-19 severity. By analyzing GM samples from 315 patients, significant correlations between microbial diversity and disease severity were observed. Notably, a convolutional neural network classifier was developed, achieving an 81.5% accuracy in predicting disease severity based on GM composition at disease onset. These findings suggest that GM profiling could enhance early triage processes, offering a novel approach to optimizing patient management during the pandemic.Efficient patient triage for COVID-19 is vital to manage healthcare resources effectively. This study underscores the potential of gut microbiota (GM) composition as an early biomarker for COVID-19 severity. By analyzing GM samples from 315 patients, significant correlations between microbial diversity and disease severity were observed. Notably, a convolutional neural network classifier was developed, achieving an 81.5% accuracy in predicting disease severity based on GM composition at disease onset. These findings suggest that GM profiling could enhance early triage processes, offering a novel approach to optimizing patient management during the pandemic

Pancreatic surgery outcomes: multicentre prospective snapshot study in 67 countries

Background: Pancreatic surgery remains associated with high morbidity rates. Although postoperative mortality appears to have improved with specialization, the outcomes reported in the literature reflect the activity of highly specialized centres. The aim of this study was to evaluate the outcomes following pancreatic surgery worldwide.Methods: This was an international, prospective, multicentre, cross-sectional snapshot study of consecutive patients undergoing pancreatic operations worldwide in a 3-month interval in 2021. The primary outcome was postoperative mortality within 90 days of surgery. Multivariable logistic regression was used to explore relationships with Human Development Index (HDI) and other parameters.Results: A total of 4223 patients from 67 countries were analysed. A complication of any severity was detected in 68.7 percent of patients (2901 of 4223). Major complication rates (Clavien-Dindo grade at least IIIa) were 24, 18, and 27 percent, and mortality rates were 10, 5, and 5 per cent in low-to-middle-, high-, and very high-HDI countries respectively. The 90-day postoperative mortality rate was 5.4 per cent (229 of 4223) overall, but was significantly higher in the low-to-middle-HDI group (adjusted OR 2.88, 95 per cent c.i. 1.80 to 4.48). The overall failure-to-rescue rate was 21 percent; however, it was 41 per cent in low-to-middle-compared with 19 per cent in very high-HDI countries.Conclusion: Excess mortality in low-to-middle-HDI countries could be attributable to failure to rescue of patients from severe complications. The authors call for a collaborative response from international and regional associations of pancreatic surgeons to address management related to death from postoperative complications to tackle the global disparities in the outcomes of pancreatic surgery (NCT04652271; ISRCTN95140761)