Dynamics of investment behaviour in Finland: aggregate and firm level evidence

In this paper we estimate reduced form investment equations for Finland using aggregate as well as firm-level panel data. We obtain significant estimates of the accelerator and user-cost effects on investment with both aggregate and firm level data, but these effects appear to be stronger at the aggregate level. Although the response of firms’ investment spending to shifts in monetary policy seems to be quantitatively nontrivial, it is surprisingly weak according to the results with firm-level data, and a considerable amount of heterogeneity also exists across firms in this respect. The firm-level estimates do not provide evidence for the existence of binding financing constraints in firms’ investment spending, at least among the sampled large firms, as we cannot obtain a significant coefficient estimate on the cash flow variable.accelerator; user cost; transmission of monetary policy; panel data

Transmission of monetary policy shocks in Finland: evidence from bank level data on loans

We use a panel of quarterly time series observations on Finnish banks to estimate reduced form equations for the growth rate of bank loans. By allowing for individual bank specific effects in the empirical models we specifically seek evidence of a bank-lending channel for the transmission of monetary policy shocks in Finland. On the basis of our estimation results, we conclude that there is weak evidence in favour of the bank-lending channel for monetary policy shocks. Our data overlaps with the post crisis recovery of the Finnish banking sector with specific government support measures still active during the good part of the sample period. We try to capture the effects of these measures through a policy dummy variable in our empirical models. This policy dummy is highly significant, suggesting that the measures may have contributed to the growth rate of bank loans during the sample period JEL Classification: E51, E52, G21banking crisis, credit view, GMM, monetary policy, money view

Declining labour share – Evidence of a change in underlying production technology?

The study demonstrates that the decline in the labour share in Finland can not be explained by the Cobb-Douglas production function. Instead, we propose an approach based on the constant-elasticity-of-substitution (CES) production function with labour- and capital-augmenting technical progress. The model is augmented by imperfect competition in the output market. According to the empirical results based on estimation of the first-order-conditions, the technical elasticity of substitution is significantly less than unity (0.6) and hence the Cobb-Douglas production function is rejected. The growth rate of the estimated labour-augmenting technical progress has decreased in recent years, which is not consistent with the ‘new-economy’ hypothesis. Capital-augmenting technical trend has exploded during the same period, which provides a possible explanation for the rapid growth of the Solow residual. The main contributing factor behind the declining labour share is, however, the increasing mark-up.production function; elasticity of technical substitution; input-augmenting technical progress; new economy

Caution or activism? Monetary policy strategies in an open economy

We examine optimal policy in an open-economy model with uncertainty and learning, where monetary policy actions affect the economy through the real exchange rate channel. Our results show that the degree of caution or activism in optimal policy depends on whether central banks are in coordinated or uncoordinated equilibrium. If central banks coordinate their policy actions then activism is optimal. In contrast, if there is no coordination, caution prevails. In the latter case caution is optimal because it helps central banks to avoid exposing themselves to manipulative actions by other central banks

Monetary policy and learning in an open economy

In this paper, we examine the incentives for central bank activism and caution in a two-country open-economy model with uncertainty and learning. We find that the presence of a strategic interaction between the home and foreign central banks creates an additional motivation for caution in monetary policy. An activist policy designed to help the learning of the home central bank is suboptimal since it generates a strong reaction from the foreign central bank. As joint learning by the home and foreign central banks is shown to be detrimental to welfare, the optimal policy is cautious.activism; learning; monetary policy; open economy

Viewpoints on "Three Assessments of Finland's Economic Crisis and Economic Policy"

This paper summarizes the basic arguments given by professors Christian Bordes, David Currie and Hans Söderström in their reports on the state and behaviour of the Finnish economy prior to mid 1993. The focus is primarily on the analytical frameworks or models used by the professors to organize their thoughts on the Finnish economy, and, admittedly, at some risk of oversimplification interpretes the reports through common analytical principles. The paper argues that basically each of the reports subscribes to the idea of a credit cycle as the driving force behind the development of the Finnish economy during the last ten years or so. Thus the very nature of the credit cycle is analyzed in the paper and interpreted in a way suitable for economic policy analysis. This discussion is followed by the policy analysis, which is organized through a sequence of policy issues and proposals raised by the professors in their reports. The paper tries to emphasize and evaluate those aspects of the analysis pursued by the professors which relate to the (lack of) credibility of the then prevailing policy regime and the feasibility of the various policy measures taken. Finally, the paper draws attention to some of the ideas discussed by the professors related to future policy options in Finland.economic crisis; credit cycle; monetary policy; deregulation of capital markets

Anticipated Monetary Policy and the Dynamic Behaviour of the Term Structure of Interest Rates

This paper investigates the measurement of anticipated interest rate policy and the effects of these expectations on the term structure of nominal interest rates. It is shown that, under the expectations hypothesis, the level of long-term interest rates depends on three factors: the level of the monetary policy interest rate, ie the steering rate; the spread between the market interest rate and the steering rate; and market expectations of the next steering rate change. The theoretical model builds on the assumption that market participants have only imperfect knowledge of the mechanism whereby changes in the steering rate are determined. As a consequence, expectations formation, although realistic, need not be entirely rational. Steering rate changes take the form of discrete jumps and occur infrequently on a daily scale. Given these assumptions, discussion of the determination of the term structure is related to the literature on uncertainty about monetary policy regimes and small samples, ie "peso" problems. Empirical analysis based on Nelson–Siegel estimates of the daily yield curves in Finland in the period 1 January 1993 to 31 October 1997 complements the theoretical discussion. The observed differences between estimated market expectations and actual tender rate changes are quite large in the sample, particularly for the longer maturities. The approach applied in this study is promising, not only in the sense of potentially providing estimates of market expectations concerning future discrete changes in monetary policy interest rates but also in the sense of its apparent potential in accounting for the often reported poor empirical performance of the expectations hypothesis.term structure of interest rates; expectations; target changes; peso problems

The Effects of Transmission Uncertainty on the Flexibility-Credibility Tradeoff in Monetary Policy

In this paper we address the issue of how parameter uncertainty affects the optimal degree of central bank conservatism. The analysis is conducted in the standard macroeconomic model of a monetary policy game embedding an expectational Phillips-curve. Multiplicative "Brainard" uncertainty is added to the model. This means that the central bank's policy instrument has a stochastic impact on inflation. This type of uncertainty is particularly interesting, since it affects the credibility–flexibility tradeoff in monetary policymaking. We show that if the flexibility problem dominates, an increase in uncertainty reduces optimal conservatism. However, increases in uncertainty can also require increases in the optimal degree of conservatism. This happens when the central bank has a sufficiently large credibility problem. This is particularly clear in the case of the introduction of uncertainty at the margin. Furthermore, the coefficient of variation of inflation appears to contain useful information about the relative size of the credibility problem and, hence, about how incipient uncertainty can affect optimal conservatism in actual economies.credibility; flexibility; monetary policy; conservatism; uncertainty

Monetary policy and learning in an open economy

In this paper, we examine the incentives for central bank activism and caution in a two-country open-economy model with uncertainty and learning. We find that the presence of a strategic interaction between the home and foreign central banks creates an additional motivation for caution in monetary policy. An activist policy designed to help the learning of the home central bank is suboptimal since it generates a strong reaction from the foreign central bank. As joint learning by the home and foreign central banks is shown to be detrimental to welfare, the optimal policy is cautious.activism, learning, monetary policy, open economy