The effect of employer incentives in social insurance on individual wages

Several studies have documented that employer incentives, in form of experience rating, co-insurance or deductibles, could decrease the social insurance usage. Such employer incentives may though have unintended side effects, as it gives employers incentives to transfer the costs to their workers, affecting individual wages and inducing cream skimming. Side effects which have been given limited attention. This paper aims to fill one part of this gap in the literature. The effect off employer incentives on individual wages is estimated using a reform in January 1992, which introduced an employer co-insurance system into the Swedish sickness absence insurance. The analysis based on a long population panel database, including survey information on hourly wages, gives no support of any important individual wage effects from the co-insurance reform. This is not a result of lack of variation in individual wage increases, nor is it a result of large standard errors.Wage; employer incentives; co-insurance; sickness absence; work absence; social insurance

Bounds on treatment effects on transitions

This paper considers the definition and identification of treatment effects on conditional transition probabilities. We show that even under sequential random assignment only the instantaneous average treatment effect is point identified. Because treated and control units drop out at different rates, randomization only ensures the comparability of treatment and controls at the time of randomization, so that long run average treatment effects are not point identified. Instead we derive informative bounds on these average treatment effects. Our bounds do not impose (semi)parametric restrictions, as e.g. proportional hazards, that would narrow the bounds or even allow for point identification. We also explore various assumptions such as monotone treatment response, common shocks and positively correlated outcomes.Partial identification; duration model; randomized experiment; treatment effect

Socioeconomic Heterogeneity in the Effect of Health Shocks on Earnings. Evidence from Population-Wide Data on Swedish Workers

In this paper, we estimate socioeconomic heterogeneity in the effect of unexpected health shocks on labor market outcomes, using register-based data on the entire population of Swedish workers. We effectively exploit a Difference-in-Difference-in-Differences design, in which we compare the change in labor earnings across treated and control groups with high and low education levels. If the anticipation effects are similar for individuals with high and low education, any difference in the estimates across socioeconomic groups could plausibly be given a causal interpretation. Our results suggest a large amount of heterogeneity in the effects, in which individuals with a low education level suer relatively more from a given health shock. These results hold across a wide range of different types of health shocks and become more pronounced with age. Our results suggest that socioeconomic heterogeneity in the effect of health shocks offers one explanation for how the socioeconomic gradient in health arises.Health; Health Shocks; Socioeconomic Status; Life-cycle

Socioeconomic heterogeneity in the effect of health shocks on earnings: evidence from population-wide data on Swedish workers

In this paper, we test for the existence of socioeconomic heterogeneity in the effect of health shocks on labor market outcomes using register data on the total population of Swedish workers. We estimate fixed effect models and use unexpected hospitalizations as a measure of health shocks. Our results suggest large heterogeneity in the effects, where low educated individuals suffer relatively more from a given health shock. This result holds across a wide range of different health shocks and our results suggest that the heterogeneity increases by age. We test several potential explanations to these results. Extensive sensitivity analyses, including a difference-in-differences matching model, show that our estimates are robust to a number of potential threats. We conclude that socioeconomic heterogeneity in the effect of health shocks offers one explanation to why the socioeconomic gradient in health widens during middle ages.Health; health shocks; socioeconomic status; life-cycle

What active labor market policy works in a recession?

This paper discusses the case for expanding active labor market policy in recession. We find that there is reasonable case for relying more heavily on certain kinds of programs. The argument is tied to the varying size of the lock-in effect in boom and recession. If programs with relatively large lock-in effects should ever be used, they should be used in a downturn. The reason is simply that the cost of forgoing search time is lower in recession. We also provide new evidence on the relative effectiveness of different kinds of programs over the business cycle. In particular we compare an on-the-job training scheme with (traditional) labor market training. We find that labor market training is relatively more effective in recession. This result is consistent with our priors since labor market training features relative large lock-in effects.Active labor market policy; business cycle; unemployment

The Relative Efficiency of Active Labour Market Policies: Evidence from a Social Experiment and Non-Parametric Methods

We re-analyze the effects of a Danish active labour market program social experiment that included a range of sub-treatments, including monitoring, job search assistance and training. Previous studies have shown that the overall effect of the experiment is positive. We apply newly developed non-parametric methods to determine which of the individual policies that explains the positive effect. The use of non-parametric methods to separate sub-treatment effects is important from a methodological point of view, since the alternative, namely parametric/distributional assumptions, is in conflict with the concept of experimental evidence. Our results are highly relevant in a policy perspective, as optimal labour market policy design requires knowledge on the effectiveness of specific policy measures.active labour market policy, treatment effect, non-parametric bounds

What active labor market policy works in a recession?

This paper discusses the case for expanding active labor market policy in recession. We find that there is reasonable case for relying more heavily on certain kinds of programs. The argument is tied to the varying size of the lock-in effect in boom and recession. If programs with relatively large lock-in effects should ever be used, they should be used in a downturn. The reason is simply that the cost of forgoing search time is lower in recession. We also provide new evidence on the relative effectiveness of different kinds of programs over the business cycle. In particular we compare an on-the-job training scheme with (traditional) labor market training. We find that labor market training is relatively more effective in recession. This result is consistent with our priors since labor market training features relative large lock-in effects.Active labor market policy; business cycle; unemployment

När tågen slutat gå

Abandoned and unused railway structures often possess great potential if they are reclaimed and reused for new purposes. The thesis focuses on the global trend of restoring and revitalizing these areas, converting them into park areas, rail trails and green corridors in the city landscape, while preserving their ecological, social, esthetic and historic values. These rail areas were often abandoned when industries moved out from the cities, either to industrial areas or abroad. The use of railways for transporting industrial goods was also replaced to a large extent my motorized road vehicles in the mid 20th century, leaving the rails under-utilized. Because of their location and intrinsic values, they can be reused for important functions, such as green areas in the city environment, providing space for recreational activities and exercise and social meetings and interactions. I have closely investigated the three park areas High Line in New York, Promenade Plantée in Paris and Schöneberger Südgelände in Berlin, which have all gone through this transformation in recent years. I have summarized my conclusions in three key concepts to consider: design for social values, preserve the architectural history, and leave room for future evolution. The final part of my work is a design program for an abandoned railways area in Stockholm: Eriksdal railway area. I picked this area since it has aspects of all the values mentioned above, and it has especially received attention for the citizens’ initiative to use the area for urban gardening, art projects, night club activities, and more. The architectural environment is also interesting, with it’s unused industrial structures, monumental bridges, and wild wastelands. The main concepts in the design program is therefore: preserve structures, urban gardening for all, and flexible spaces. The conclusion is that a conscious reclaiming of railway areas can lead the city into the future while preserving the historical values!Övergivna och oanvända rälsområden så som bangårdar, industrispår och järnvägsrälser är platser med stor potential som ofta inte kommer till sin rätt i en kontext där platsen står bortglömd. En trend har nu spridit sig över världen, där övergivna rälsområden tas tillvara och förvandlas till nya offentliga mötesplatser i staden. Dessa platser, som oftast är vildvuxna ödelandskap och ruderatmark, uppmärksammas för sina ekologiska-, sociala-, estetiska-, kulturhistoriska- och arkitekturhistoriska värden. De står som grund för nya promenad- och parkstråk, rälsstråk och gröna korridorer i staden, i utkanten av staden eller på landsbygden, och det är detta fenomen som står i fokus för min uppsats. Dessa rälsområden, ofta på strategiska platser, har sedan postindustrialismens intåg övergivits till följd av att användandet av räls har förändrats i världen. Bangårdar och industrirälser har lämnats öde på grund av avindustrialisering, järnvägsrälsen har lämnats när efterfrågan av dessa sträckor inte längre finns, en följd av vårt nya bilsamhälle. Rälsområden lämnas även på grund av ändrade tillstånd i världsekonomin, vid bristande underhåll, omdragning av räls och förflyttning av tågstationer. Dessa stadens mellanrum är värdefulla att återta. Rälsområden kan fungera som offentliga platser för människor, fylla behovet av grönstruktur i det urbana landskapet, ge utrymme för motion, rekreation och tillfällen för möten samt bevara den historia som genomsyrar platsen. Genom att förvandla övergiven räls och dess situation i staden till promenad- och parkstråk får dessa platser ett uppsving – ett steg mot ett hållbart stadslandskap. I uppsatsen tittar jag särskilt på de tre promenad- och parkstråken High Line i New York, Promenade Plantée i Paris och Schöneberger Südgelände i Berlin. Dessa har alla varit övergivna rälsområden som på senare tid har förvandlats till publika promenad- och parkstråk. I mina fallstudier beskriver jag hur High Lines tydliga industrihistoria, det tidigare ödelandskapet, den bevarade rostiga rälsen och de sociala värden som har varit närvarande genom processen, var viktiga i High Lines gestaltning. Promenade Plantées utvecklades till en grön oas, kvarterspark med sociala tillfällen och varierande arkitektur. Schöneberger Südgelände har skapats av de ekologiska förutsättningarna på platsen. Den vildvuxna ruderatmarken, de bevarade rälsrelikerna och arkitekturhistorien. I en jämförelse av dessa parkområden har jag kommit fram till tre utgångspunkter att förhålla sig till i ett gestaltningsprogram för ett övergivet rälsområde: gestalta för sociala värden, bevara arkitekturhistorien och lämna utrymme för framtida förändring av platsens funktion. Mitt arbete avslutas med att jag använder dessa utgångspunkter i ett eget gestaltningsprogram för en övergiven räls, Eriksdals rälsområde, vid Skanstull i Stockholm. Jag valde området eftersom det har stor potential att återanvändas och förvandlas till ett offentligt mötesrum för alla människor. Jag inventerade och analyserade rälsområdet, läste på om platsens historia och upptäckte vilka värden området har. Speciellt de sociala värdena är centrala, och har tagit sig uttryck i det medborgarinitiativ som finns på platsen i form av en publik koloniträdgård och odlingsrörelse, Odling på spåret. Koloniträdgårdarna har varit närvarande på platsen genom historien och rörelsen som nu har startat känns som en naturlig fortsättning för platsen. De fyra brokonstruktionerna som omsluter rummet och den bevarade rälsen är viktiga för platsens karaktär. Det utrymme som skapas under broarna huserar flera olika aktiviteter och funktioner, föränderliga med tiden, dag för dag, mellan årstider och kanske med åren. Huvuddragen i mitt gestaltningsprogram är alltså: bevara strukturer, koloniträdgårdar till alla och flexibla ytor. Min slutsats och produkten av de sammanvävda delmomenten är att återtagande av övergivna rälsområden leder staden in i framtiden samtidigt som platsens historia och värden bevaras

Monitoring Job Offer Decisions, Punishments, Exit to Work, and Job Quality

Unemployment insurance systems include monitoring of unemployed workers and punitive sanctions if job search requirements are violated. We analyze the effect of sanctions on the ensuing job quality, notably on wage rates and hours worked, and we examine how often a sanction leads to a lower occupational level. The data cover the Swedish population over 1999-2004. We estimate duration models dealing with selection on unobservables. We use weighted exogenous sampling maximum likelihood to deal with the fact the data register is large whereas observed punishments are rare. We also develop a theoretical job search model with monitoring of job offer rejection vis-a-vis monitoring of job search effort. The observation window includes a policy change in which the punishment severity was reduced. We find that the hourly wage and the number of hours are on average lower after a sanction, and that individuals move more often to a lower occupational level, incurring human capital losses. Monitoring offer rejections is less effective than monitoring search effort.offer rejection, unemployment, job offer, duration, sanction, wage, hours worked, weighted exogenous sampling maximum likelihood, case worker, search effort

IPW estimation and related estimators for evaluation of active labor market policies in a dynamic setting

This paper considers treatment evaluation in a discrete time setting in which treatment could start at any point in time. A typical application is an active labor market policy program which could start after any elapsed unemployment duration. It is shown that various average effects on survival time are identified under unconfoundedness and no-anticipation and inverse probability weighting (IPW) estimators are provided for these effects. The estimators are applied to a Swedish work practice program. The IPW estimator is compared with related estimators. One conclusion is that the matching estimator proposed by Fredriksson and Johansson (2008) overlooks a selective censoring problem