A comparative analysis of the predictive abilities of economic complexity metrics using international trade network

The complex networks approach has proven to be an effective tool to understand and predict the evolution of a wide range of complex systems. In this work, we consider the network representing the exchange of goods between countries: the international trade network. According to the type of goods they export, the complex networks approach allows inferring which countries will have a bigger growth compared to others. The aim of this work is to study three different methods characterizing the complex networks and study their behaviour on two main topics. Can the method predict the economic evolution of a country? What happens to those methods when we merge the economies

Measuring economic complexity of countries and products: which metric to use?

Evaluating the economies of countries and their relations with products in the global market is a central problem in economics, with far-reaching implications to our theoretical understanding of the international trade as well as to practical applications, such as policy making and financial investment planning. The recent Economic Complexity approach aims to quantify the competitiveness of countries and the quality of the exported products based on the empirical observation that the most competitive countries have diversified exports, whereas developing countries only export few low quality products -- typically those exported by many other countries. Two different metrics, Fitness-Complexity and the Method of Reflections, have been proposed to measure country and product score in the Economic Complexity framework. We use international trade data and a recent ranking evaluation measure to quantitatively compare the ability of the two metrics to rank countries and products according to their importance in the network. The results show that the Fitness-Complexity metric outperforms the Method of Reflections in both the ranking of products and the ranking of countries. We also investigate a Generalization of the Fitness-Complexity metric and show that it can produce improved rankings provided that the input data are reliable

Prediction in complex systems: the case of the international trade network

Predicting the future evolution of complex systems is one of the main challenges in complexity science. Based on a current snapshot of a network, link prediction algorithms aim to predict its future evolution. We apply here link prediction algorithms to data on the international trade between countries. This data can be represented as a complex network where links connect countries with the products that they export. Link prediction techniques based on heat and mass diffusion processes are employed to obtain predictions for products exported in the future. These baseline predictions are improved using a recent metric of country fitness and product similarity. The overall best results are achieved with a newly developed metric of product similarity which takes advantage of causality in the network evolution

Economic complexity based recommendation enhance the efficiency of the belt and road initiative

The Belt and Road initiative (BRI) was announced in 2013 by the Chinese government. Its goal is to promote the cooperation between European and Asian countries, as well as enhancing the trust between members and unifying the market. Since its creation, more and more developing countries are joining the initiative. Based on the geographical location characteristics of the countries in this initiative, we propose an improvement of a popular recommendation algorithm that includes geographic location information. This recommendation algorithm is able to make suitable recommendations of products for countries in the BRI. Then, Fitness and Complexity metrics are used to evaluate the impact of the recommendation results and measure the country’s competitiveness. The aim of this work is to provide countries’ insights on the ideal development direction. By following the recommendations, the countries can quickly increase their international competitiveness

Enhancing countries’ fitness with recommender systems on the international trade network

Prediction is one of the major challenges in complex systems. The prediction methods have shown to be effective predictors of the evolution of networks. These methods can help policy makers to solve practical problems successfully and make better strategy for the future. In this work, we focus on exporting countries’ data of the International Trade Network. A recommendation system is then used to identify the products that correspond to the production capacity of each individual country but are somehow overlooked by the country. Then, we simulate the evolution of the country’s fitness if it would have followed the recommendations. The result of this work is the combination of these two methods to provide insights to countries on how to enhance the diversification of their exported products in a scientific way and improve national competitiveness significantly, especially for developing countries

The essential role of time in network-based recommendation

Random walks on bipartite networks have been used extensively to design personalized recommendation methods. While aging has been identified as a key component in the growth of information networks, most research has focused on the networks' structural properties and neglected the often available time information. Time has been largely ignored both by the investigated recommendation methods as well as by the methodology used to evaluate them. We show that this time-unaware approach overestimates the methods' recommendation performance. Motivated by microscopic rules of network growth, we propose a time-aware modification of an existing recommendation method and show that by combining the temporal and structural aspects, it outperforms the existing methods. The performance improvements are particularly striking in systems with fast aging

Information filtering by similarity-preferential diffusion processes

Recommender systems provide a promising way to address the information overload problem which is common in online systems. Based on past user preferences, a recommender system can find items that are likely to be relevant to a given user. Two classical physical processes, mass diffusion and heat conduction, have been used to design recommendation algorithms and a hybrid process based on them has been shown to provide accurate and diverse recommendation results. We modify both processes as well as their hybrid by introducing a parameter which can be used to enhance or suppress the weight of users who are most similar to the target user for whom the recommendation is done. Evaluation on two benchmark data sets demonstrates that both recommendation accuracy and diversity are improved for a wide range of parameter values. Threefold validation indicates that the achieved results are robust and the new recommendation methods are thus applicable in practice

Infrared spectra of jennite and tobermorite from first-principles

The infrared absorption spectra of jennite, tobermorite 14 angstrom, anomalous tobermorite 11 angstrom, and normal tobermorite 11 angstrom are simulated within a density-functional-theory scheme. The atomic coordinates and the cell parameters are optimized resulting in structures which agree with previous studies. The vibrational frequencies and modes are obtained for each mineral. The vibrational density of states is analyzed through extensive projections on silicon tetrahedra, oxygen atoms, OH groups, and water molecules. The coupling with the electric field is achieved through the use of density functional perturbation theory, which yields Born effective charges and dielectric constants. The simulated absorption spectra reproduce well the experimental spectra, thereby allowing for a detailed interpretation of the spectral features in terms of the underlying vibrational modes. In the far-infrared part of the absorption spectra, the interplay between Ca and Si related vibrations leads to differences which are sensitive to the calcium/silicon ratio of the mineral. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved