The utility of measles and rubella IgM serology in an elimination setting, Ontario, Canada, 2009-2014.

In Canada, measles was eliminated in 1998 and rubella in 2000. Effective measles and rubella surveillance is vital in elimination settings, hinging on reliable laboratory methods. However, low-prevalence settings affect the predictive value of laboratory tests. We conducted an analysis to determine the performance of measles and rubella IgM testing in a jurisdiction where both infections are eliminated. 21,299 test results were extracted from the Public Health Ontario Laboratories database and 1,239 reports were extracted from the Ontario Integrated Public Health Information System (iPHIS) from 2008 and 2010 for measles and rubella, respectively, to 2014. Deterministic linkage resulted in 658 linked measles records (2009-2014) and 189 linked rubella records (2010-2014). Sixty-six iPHIS measles entries were classified as confirmed cases, of which 53 linked to laboratory data. Five iPHIS rubella entries were classified as confirmed, all linked to IgM results. The positive predictive value was 17.4% for measles and 3.6% for rubella. Sensitivity was 79.2% for measles and 100.0% for rubella. Specificity was 65.7% for measles and 25.8% for rubella. Our study confirms that a positive IgM alone does not confirm a measles case in elimination settings. This has important implications for countries that are working towards measles and rubella elimination

The Epidemiology of Invasive Haemophilus influenzae Non-Serotype B Disease in Ontario, Canada from 2004 to 2013.

Since the widespread use of Haemophilus influenzae (Hi) type b (Hib) vaccines among children aged <5 years, an increase in invasive non-Hib disease incidence has been reported internationally. We sought to describe the epidemiology of invasive non-Hib disease in Ontario, Canada (population ~13.5 million).Confirmed invasive non-Hib cases (non-typeable [NTHi] and serotypes a, c, d, e, and f) were obtained from the provincial laboratory data system from 2004-2013. Data were deterministically linked to the provincial reportable disease system to provide further case information. Antibiotic resistance data were analysed separately from 2010-2014. Descriptive analyses included incidence rates, age group, serotype, site of specimen collection and resistance patterns; ethnicity data were not available. Temporal trends were evaluated by Poisson regression and p-values <0.05 were considered significant.A total of 1307 cases of invasive non-Hib disease were included, increasing from 0.67 cases to 1.60 cases /100,000 from 2004 to 2013. Significant increases in the incidence of NTHi (0.50 to 1.28 cases/100 000 population), Hia (0.02 to 0.08 cases/100, 000) and Hif (0.13 to 0.18 cases/100, 000 population) were seen. Among persons aged 40-64 years, 3 Hi strains significantly increased over time; NTHi (0.22 to 0.99 cases/100, 000), Hia (0.00 to 0.06 cases/100, 000) and Hif (0.05 to 0.21 cases/100, 000). Among persons aged 65-84 years, there was a significant increase of NTHi (1.62 to 3.14 cases/100, 000) and Hia (0.00 to 0.34 cases/100, 000). Among persons aged 85+ years, only NTHi significantly increased from 4.89 to 10.28 cases/100, 000). Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) to ampicillin and clarithromycin was seen in greater than 25% of isolates but AMR did not increase over the duration of this study.The incidence of invasive non-Hib disease has increased over time; NTHi, Hif and Hia are emerging pathogens, and should be monitored

Epidemiology of serogroup B invasive meningococcal disease in Ontario, Canada, 2000 to 2010

Abstract Background Invasive meningococcal disease (IMD) caused by serogroup B is the last major serogroup in Canada to become vaccine-preventable. The anticipated availability of vaccines targeting this serogroup prompted an assessment of the epidemiology of serogroup B disease in Ontario, Canada. Methods We retrieved information on confirmed IMD cases reported to Ontario’s reportable disease database between January 1, 2000 and December 31, 2010 and probabilistically-linked these cases to Public Health Ontario Laboratory records. Rates were calculated with denominator data obtained from Statistics Canada. We calculated a crude number needed to vaccinate using the inverse of the infant (<1 year) age-specific incidence multiplied by expected vaccine efficacies between 70% and 80%, and assuming only direct protection (no herd effects). Results A total of 259 serogroup B IMD cases were identified in Ontario over the 11-year period. Serogroup B was the most common cause of IMD. Incidence ranged from 0.11 to 0.27/100,000/year, and fluctuated over time. Cases ranged in age from 13 days to 101 years; 21.4% occurred in infants, of which 72.7% were <6 months. Infants had the highest incidence (3.70/100,000). Case-fatality ratio was 10.7% overall. If we assume that all infant cases would be preventable by vaccination, we would need to vaccinate between 33,784 and 38,610 infants to prevent one case of disease. Conclusions Although rare, the proportion of IMD caused by serogroup B has increased and currently causes most IMD in Ontario, with infants having the highest risk of disease. Although serogroup B meningococcal vaccines are highly anticipated, our findings suggest that decisions regarding publicly funding serogroup B meningococcal vaccines will be difficult and may not be based on disease burden alone

Performance of rubella IgM serology test using linked dataset, Ontario, Canada, 2009–2014.

<p>Performance of rubella IgM serology test using linked dataset, Ontario, Canada, 2009–2014.</p

Data extraction, linkage and analysis flowchart.

<p>Data extraction, linkage and analysis flowchart.</p

Distribution of confirmed measles cases in iPHIS by year and linkage status, Ontario, Canada 2009–2014, (N = 66).

<p>Distribution of confirmed measles cases in iPHIS by year and linkage status, Ontario, Canada 2009–2014, (N = 66).</p

Profile of rubella cases by data source, Ontario, Canada, 2009–2014.

<p>Profile of rubella cases by data source, Ontario, Canada, 2009–2014.</p

Performance of measles IgM serology test using linked dataset, Ontario, Canada, 2009–2014.

<p>Performance of measles IgM serology test using linked dataset, Ontario, Canada, 2009–2014.</p