Scenario Analyses Concerning Energy Efficiency and Climate Protection in Regional and National Residential Building Stocks. Examples from Nine European Countries. - EPISCOPE Synthesis Report No. 3

This report documents methodological aspects and selected results of the scenario analyses to assess refurbishment as well as energy saving processes and project future energy consumption.. It covers scenario calculations conducted for regional residential building stocks in Salzburg/Austria, the Comunidat Valenciana/Spain, the Piedmont Region/Italy, the national non-profit housing stock in the Netherlands as well as the national residential building stocks in Germany, England, Greece, Norway, and Slovenia. Thereby, the objective of the scenario analysis is not a prediction of future energy demand in the respective building stock. Rather, the objective is to show the potential future impact of predefined assumptions. This may help respective key actors and policy makers to decide on strategies and policies for transforming building stocks towards carbon dioxide neutrality

Explaining the historical energy use in dwelling stocks with a segmented dynamic model: Case study of Norway 1960–2015

AbstractA segmented dynamic dwelling stock model is proven useful for understanding the development and changes of ageing building stocks, which is highly relevant for renovation measures and estimates of energy use and emissions in aggregated building stocks. In this paper, such a model is developed further for detailed analyses of dwelling stock energy demand and exemplified for the Norwegian dwelling stock 1960–2015. The dwelling stock model simulates the development in stock size and composition and is combined with archetype-specific energy intensities to estimate the total energy demand. After calibrating the model results with statistics, the model is used to explore the phenomena and causes of historical changes. A large-scale improvement of the energy efficiency of the Norwegian dwelling stock has taken place through renovation and construction of new dwellings. A historical shift to more efficient energy carriers and heating systems has had an effect on energy savings in the system, of the same size as the effect of the improved energy efficiency of the stock. However, the total average energy savings per m2 are offset by changes in user heating habits. A significant decrease in average delivered energy intensity per m2 is only observed after the introduction of heat pumps