Complexity in decision-making - the case of Maasvlakte - Connecting decisions, arenas and actors in spatial decision-making

Decision-making about infrastructure is very complex. Decisions to develop the Rotterdam harbour are being taken in a network of local, regional and national actors and influenced by international actors (firms, NGO’s etc.) both public and private. This decision-making process shows a lot of uncertainty and complexity and the outcomes are of great importance for the development of the harbour. Network theory has been widely used to indicate, explain and manage uncertainty in decision-making processes. The theory is well equipped for empirical research and has shown many applicable results. The attention for influences from outside the network to decision-making inside the network is however still poorly developed. In the case of decision-making with a strong international component this is a handicap. In this paper the relation between influences from outside and decision-making inside networks is studied both theoretically and empirically. A distinction is made between locally bound and non-locally bound networks to theorise the complex decision-making process. The well-known scientific concept of space of flows versus space of places from Manuel Castells is used as an inspiration to describe the relation between the locally and non-locally bounded networks of decision making. The locally bounded network is formed by the formal decision making process between the governmental and non-governmental organisations in countries, regions and municipalities. The non-locally bounded networks exist of organizations that are footloose and act globally mainly according to economic principals. The concept of inclusion is used to analyse the various actors in the decision-making process. The paper starts with the description of the external influences in port areas in general. The balance between the influence of local and non-local bounded networks depends on the multiple-inclusion of the different actors in the decision-making process in both networks. In areas in which many actors are included in the place-bounded networks, the external influences can be expected to be marginal. The port area of Rotterdam is a node in international networks and so the hypothesis can be set that in the Rotterdam port area the influence of actors mainly included in non-place bounded networks is significant in decision making networks. To explore this assumption various networks, which are relevant for decision-making about spatial issues in the Rotterdam port are identified and the differences in inclusion of the relevant actors is analysed. By means of the analysis of perceptions of the various actors (locally bound or non-locally bound) and their strategic choices and decisions we show that notions on international port development are being interpreted and transformed quite differently by the various actors. This first part of analysis highlights the possible gap between the awareness of the various actors of the non-locally bounded networks and their translation into their strategies in local bounded networks. We also trace difference of perceptions and strategies between actors who solely operate in locally bound networks and actors who are both included in locally and non-locally bound networks (like shipping firms etc). This second part of analysis indicates if there are differences in what the actors use as input for their respective positions in the decision-making networks. The paper shows that the influence of external developments in non-locally bound networks manifests itself in locally bound networks but is transformed and interpreted in many ways by the different actors. The paper ends with some conclusions about decision-making on large ports and the possibilities to influence this complex decision-making process that takes place in locally bound and non-locally bounded networks at the same time.

Modeling and simulation of data communication networks using SARA

The selection of an appropriate simulation language can have a profound impact on the success of a simulation study. The available options range from domain-specific simulation languages to general-purpose programming languages. These languages are often supported by a collection of tools which form a simulation system. This paper examines UCLA's SARA (Systems ARchitects' Apprentice) system and explores its' usefulness in modeling and simulating a data communications network. Based on experimental use of SARA's tools, the system is evaluated with respect to required expertise, modeling power, as well as measurement and reporting capability

Designing democratic institutions for collaborative economic development: a European perspective

Collaborative approaches to local economic development have developed in a number of European countries. However collaborative working presents a new problem for policy makers and public management researchers. The problem is to design an institutional framework for the governance of economic development that provides for anchorage in the democratic system without loosing the benefits of flexible policy design and delivery. This is particularly important in a European context. The European Union has recognised the need for citizens to be more engaged in the governance of public policy at all scales - from local neighbourhoods to the transnational level. This chapter addresses the problem by examining the basic questions that any form of democratic governance design needs to address, and relating this to the case of economic development. The core democratic design questions are: How can legitimacy be secured? In what ways can relevant publics give consent to decisions? Through what means can the institution be held to account? The chapter discusses these three democratic imperatives and shows that different responses to these produce three archetypical governance designs - club, agency and polity. We then explore the way in which the problems of democratic governance have been solved empirically through longitudinal case studies of the expansion of Mainport Rotterdam and the management of economic, environmental, residential and transportation agendas in the Ghent canal area of the Flanders region of Belgium. The analysis shows that although different national and regional political contexts matter, the typology of archetypes offers a way of understanding the overall democratic orientation of a particular governance design as well as offering a basis from which policy makers can create their own solutions

Operator arguments revisited

Certain passages in Kaplan’s ‘Demonstratives’ are often taken to show that non-vacuous sentential operators associated with a certain parameter of sentential truth require a corresponding relativism concerning assertoric contents: namely, their truth values also must vary with that parameter. Thus, for example, the non-vacuity of a temporal sentential operator ‘always’ would require some of its operands to have contents that have different truth values at different times. While making no claims about Kaplan’s intentions, we provide several reconstructions of how such an argument might go, focusing on the case of time and temporal operators as an illustration. What we regard as the most plausible reconstruction of the argument establishes a conclusion similar enough to that attributed to Kaplan. However, the argument overgenerates, leading to absurd consequences. We conclude that we must distinguish assertoric contents from compositional semantic values, and argue that once they are distinguished, the argument fails to establish any substantial conclusions. We also briefly discuss a related argument commonly attributed to Lewis, and a recent variant due to Weber

On the Forecasting Properties of the Alternative Leading Indicators for the German GDP: Recent Evidence

In this paper we perform a comparative study of the forecasting properties of the alternative leading indicators for Germany using the growth rates of German real GDP. We use the post-unification data which cover years from 1991 through 2004. We detect a structural break in the growth rates that occurs in the first half of 2001. Our results suggest that the forecasting ability of the leading indicators has been rather good in the pre-break period but it significantly deteriorated in the post-break period, i.e. in 2001-2004. None of the leading indicator models was able to predict and accommodate the structural break in the growth rates of the time series under scrutiny.Forecasting real GDP; Diffusion index; Leading indicators; PcGets

The Coverage Gap: A State-by-State Report on Access to Care

Provides an analysis of data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to identify disparities in healthcare access between insured and uninsured adults. Demonstrates a rise in the number of Americans over 50 without health care coverage

An Interesting Case of Isolated Pancreatic Transection Following Blunt Abdominal Trauma in Emergency Department

Introduction: Traumatic injury to the pancreas is not common, but if the diagnosis is delayed or misdiagnosed in the emergency department (ED), the condition is associated with high morbidity and mortality and raises a question about the quality of emergency care. Here, we describe a rare case of blunt abdominal trauma resulted in isolated pancreas injury. Case presentation: A 25-year-old young male came to our emergency room (ER) in a conscious, anxious state from a nearby town with a history of roadside trauma. Further investigations revealed an isolated pancreatic injury due to trauma with no other major injuries, which occurred due to a sudden high-speed impact of the steering wheel to the epigastrium of a driver while driving the car, severely compressing the pancreas between the backbone and steering wheel. The patient was admitted to the intensive care unit for close observation and monitoring. He was managed conservatively on intravenous fluids, antibiotics, analgesics, and vasopressors. He was discharged after five days in a hemodynamically stable and afebrile condition, on a normal diet. Conclusion: Isolated pancreatic injury following blunt abdominal trauma is rare, and the symptoms are difficult to analyze early due to its retroperitoneal anatomy. Early detection and early intervention are important in the ED, and if left unrecognized, could result in a poor outcome

Double and Triple Givental's J-functions for Stable Quotients Invariants

We use mirror formulas for the stable quotients analogue of Givental's J-function for twisted projective invariants obtained in a previous paper to obtain mirror formulas for the analogues of the double and triple Givental's J-functions (with descendants at all marked points) in this setting. We then observe that the genus 0 stable quotients invariants need not satisfy the divisor, string, or dilaton relations of the Gromov-Witten theory, but they do possess the integrality properties of the genus 0 three-point Gromov-Witten invariants of Calabi-Yau manifolds. We also relate the stable quotients invariants to the BPS counts arising in Gromov-Witten theory and obtain mirror formulas for certain twisted Hurwitz numbers.Comment: 60 pages, 9 figures, 1 table. arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1201.635

Report No. 28: Review of Methodologies Applied for the Assessment of Employment and Social Impacts

Joint report with ECORYS Netherlands for the DG Employment, Social Affairs and Equal Opportunities of the European Commission, Bonn 2010 (217 pages)