Towards a methodology for new technologies assessment in aircraft operating cost

The need for a greener and competitive aircraft is leading to the use of new technologies. A thorough assessment of these technologies is mandatory from the initial phases of aircraft design to understand their feasibility and to select the most promising one both in terms of performances and in terms of costs. This paper proposes a methodology to assess the operating cost of innovative technologies for regional aircraft. In particular, two NASA studies have been adopted to determine the impact onto costs of MEA and AEA technologies and advanced ECS solutions for two innovative regional aircraft concepts developed during the European Clean Sky 2 research. The proposed methodology is able to assess the effect of on-board systems electrification level in terms of fuel and maintenance costs savings. The methodology, which allows to evaluate the effect of specific technological improvements onto costs, is applied exploiting the results provided by a reliable cost model and gives the opportunity to quantify operating cost savings for different regional aircraft. Applying the modified cost model to the reference aircraft under study, savings ranging from 1.6 to 3.1% of direct operating cost are estimated for MEA and AEA technologies. Greater savings are estimated for the individual cost items involved. More specifically, a reduction of fuel cost ranging from 6 to 14.5% is envisaged as a consequence of the lower SFC associated to innovative ECS technologies

Cost estimation methodology and tool for future Reusable Access To Space Systems

This paper aims at presenting the latest upgrades to HyCost Methodology and Tool, developed by Politecnico di Torino under funding and supervision of the European Space Agency (ESA), to support Life Cycle Cost (LCC) estimation of reusable access to space vehicles. The main idea is to support engineers in cost estimation activities during conceptual and preliminary design phases, allowing for the evaluation of Research, Development, Test and Evaluation (RDTE) Costs, Production Costs, as well as Direct and Indirect Operating Costs (DOC and IOC), for a wide set of high-speed aerospace systems. Politecnico di Torino has already disclosed a LCC methodology and tool specifically tailored to air-breathing high-speed transportation systems. Complementary, this paper discloses the methodology upgrades to extend the methodology and tool capabilities to future Reusable Access to Space Vehicles. At first, the applicability of already existing parametric cost estimation relationships (CERs) to the peculiarities of Reusable Access to Space Vehicles is assessed and then, when necessary, new parametric equations are defined. Specifically, the new set of equations is considered fundamental to capture the impact of different vehicle configurations (e.g. staging strategy, staging Mach number, parallel or series configuration, etc…) onto costs, as well as the impact of the most promising propulsive solutions, ranging from scramjet and combined cycle engines to rocket engines. Ultimately, the upgraded methodology is validated against the available SpaceX Starship cost data

A methodology for preliminary sizing of a Thermal and Energy Management System for a hypersonic vehicle

This paper addresses a methodology to parametrically size thermal control subsystems for high-speed transportation systems. This methodology should be sufficiently general to be exploited for the derivation of Estimation Relationships (ERs) for geometrically sizing characteristics as well as mass, volume and power budgets both for active (turbopumps, turbines and compressors) and passive components (heat exchangers, tanks and pipes). Following this approach, ad-hoc semi-empirical models relating the geometrical sizing, mass, volume and power features of each component to operating conditions have been derived. As a specific case, a semi-empirical parametric model for turbopumps sizing is derived. In addition, the Thermal and Energy Management Subsystem (TEMS) for the LAPCAT MR2 vehicle is used as an example of a highly integrated multifunctional subsystem. The TEMS is based on the exploitation of liquid hydrogen boil-off in the cryogenic tanks generated by the heat load penetrating the aeroshell, all along the point-to-point hypersonic mission. Eventually, specific comments about the results will be provided together with suggestions for future improvements

Using the ESA exploration technology roadmaps in support of new mission concepts and technology prioritization

Exploration technology roadmaps have been developed by ESA in the past few years and the edition of 2015 has just been released. In the context of Moon exploration initiatives and using HERACLES mission as case study, the authors will apply methodologies studied to simulate technology roadmapping activities and technologies prioritization processes. In particular, the roadmaps for the procurement of technologies required for the HERACLES mission are here presented through its main building blocks

Space systems engineering tools for technology roadmapping activities: TrIS, technology roadmapping strategy, and HyDaT, database on hypersonic transportation systems

A technology roadmap is the output of the technology roadmapping process, a complex and continuously evolving process, which aims at selecting technologies, mission concepts, capabilities and building blocks to pursue incremental paths to increase the Technology Readiness Level, according to specific strategic plans. Technology roadmaps are crucial not only to illustrate the technologies' procurement plan for specific missions in the future, but also the achievement for Europe of technological milestones enabling operational capabilities, essential for current and future space missions. Coordination of requirements and funding sources among all European stakeholders (ESA, EU, National Agencies, Industries) is one of the objectives of technology roadmaps. The paper presents the results of a research activity carried out by Politecnico di Torino in support to the work on-going at ESA to elaborate technology roadmaps for the hypersonic and (re-)entry space transportation systems' domain. Traditionally the approach has always been based on workshops and brainstorming. The idea at the basis of the research activity has been the development of a flexible and rational methodology to generate technology roadmaps to better support strategic decisions in combination with traditional methods. The research activity thus focuses on the development of an innovative methodology to derive, track and manage the technology roadmaps' basic pillars (Technology Areas, Operational Capabilities, Mission Concepts and Building Blocks) and on the implementation of the methodology itself into two ad-hoc tools: TRIS, Technology Roadmapping Strategy, and HYDAT, Database on Hypersonic and (re-entry) transportation systems. TRIS is a versatile software tool that implements the objective methodology for technology roadmaps' derivation and update. HYDAT is a smart database, able to collect, categorize and analyze data to support technology roadmaps for (re-)entry missions and reusability applications. In addition, HYDAT can support hypersonic and (re-)entry conceptual design activities. First, the paper describes the main settings of the database that manages all relevant initiatives for technological development of hypersonic and (re-)entry systems, categorizing them according to the roadmap pillars. Secondly, the paper presents TRIS, the tool used to derive, track and manage the pillars and consequently to generate the technology roadmaps. Eventually, the paper presents and discusses the results obtained by the application of HYDAT and TRIS to IXV (Intermediate eXperimental Vehicle), analysing main activities expected in the near and far future to enhance hypersonic and (re-)entry technologies and proposing a TRL increase path in terms of missions and activities to perform, and in which schedule to carry out them

A parametric cost model for estimating civil aircraft line and base maintenance

The present work proposes a new parametric cost model in order to assess civil aircraft maintenance cost during the initial phase of aircraft design. The model focuses on defined maintenance activities, i.e. line and base maintenance, providing cost estimating relationships for the two cost items under study. The proposed cost model represents an updated alternative tool compared to the state-of-the-art models for civil aircraft maintenance costs estimation. It is based on current aircraft data provided by the International Air Transport Association and it may be useful to assess maintenance cost for new projects during aircraft conceptual design. The collinearity analysis is included in order to select independent cost drivers. The results of the developed model are in good accordance with other reference cost data provided by an independent source. The latter refer to aircraft models not considered in International Air Transport Association reports and adopting new technologies (such as composite structural materials) within their development. The analysis of the results obtained demonstrates that the application of proper corrective coefficients may lead to a maintenance cost estimation model for innovative aircraft configurations based on present architectures

Technology RoadmappIng Strategy, TRIS: Methodology and tool for technology roadmaps for hypersonic and re-entry space transportation systems

This paper describes the methodology developed by Politecnico di Torino in support to the elaboration of hypersonic and re-entry space transportation systems roadmaps, currently on going at ESA. TRIS (Technology RoadmappIng Strategy) is here presented as a collection of algorithms leading the stakeholders from the selection of a set of elements (e.g. the technologies) up to the generation of their incremental paths towards a final target (e.g. Technology Readiness Level (TRL) 8). In particular this paper focuses on the generation and update of technology roadmaps for hypersonic and re-entry systems. In particular, the Intermediate eXperimental Vehicle (IXV) experiment is presented as validation case study, allowing the comparison of the TRL increase path suggested by the proposed methodology and the decisions that were taken at the time of the IXV mission planning

Life cycle cost estimation for high-speed transportation systems

This paper presents an innovative methodology and tool developed by Politecnico di Torino and the European Space Agency (ESA) to support life cycle cost (LCC) estimation for high-speed transportation systems. This ad hoc built-in tool aims at supporting engineers in cost estimations during conceptual and preliminary design phases. This includes the evaluation of research, development, test and evaluation costs (RDTE costs), production costs as well as direct and indirect operating costs (DOC and IOC). Eventually, the results of the LCC evaluation for two different high-speed transport vehicles is provided and discussed

Economic and environmental sustainability of liquid hydrogen fuel for hypersonic transportation systems

Based on recent research activities, the cost of the propellant may represent up to the 90% of the Direct Operating Cost for a hypersonic vehicle. Therefore, it can be considered the most relevant cost item of the overall Life Cycle Cost. In this context, the paper focuses on the estimation of the cost of liquid hydrogen, one of the most promising fuels for high-speed applications, considering its specific energy content. In particular, a methodology is here presented to guide engineers through the evaluation of the impact of the LH2 price on Direct Operating Cost and then onto the overall Life Cycle Cost for a long-haul point-to-point transportation system. Starting from an overview of the current H2 productive scenarios, future possible technological improvements allowing an increment of the production rate and a reduction of the related socio-economic impact are described. Then, a detailed cost-estimation model is presented for the so-called “green” hydrogen. Eventually, the developed cost model is applied to the LAPCAT A2 and LAPCAT MR2.4 vehicles and mission concepts, demonstrating that in a future scenario (2050) the LH2 cost can be lowered down to 2 €/kg. With this fuel price, the share of fuel cost onto Direct Operating Cost can be reduced down to 70%

Life cycle cost estimation methodology for hypersonic transportation systems

© 31st Congress of the International Council of the Aeronautical Sciences, ICAS 2018. All rights reserved. In this last decade, both the aeronautical and aerospace domains are looking with special interest towards the development of hypersonic transportation systems with different purposes. Indeed, considering the specific technologies that have been installed on-board, the vehicle can allow performing recurrent access to space (with reusable vehicles), suborbital parabolic flights with commercial or scientific purposes or point-to-point connections. In order to enhance the competitiveness of the project, cost analyses should be carried out since the very beginning of the design process taking into account not only Research & Development Costs and Production Costs, but also the Operating Costs. The lack of cost models for the segment of reusable high-speed vehicles is a problem in estimating the total effort from design, production up to exploitation. The formalization of a dedicated model for the estimation of development, production and operative costs of reusable transportation vehicles is therefore a crucial need. In this context, the proposed work deals with the generation of a parametric cost estimation tool, which consists of several Cost Estimation Relationships (CERs) for the overall reusability development, production and operating costs. The derived model is exploited to perform a preliminary cost assessment for the main vehicles designed within the LAPCAT (Long-Term Advanced Propulsion Concepts and Technologies) projects.status: publishe