Envisioning present and future land-use change under varying ecological regimes and their influence on landscape stability

7siopenClimate change plays an important role in shaping ecological stability of landscape systems. Increasing weather fluctuations such as droughts threaten the ecological stability of natural and anthropogenic landscapes. Uncertainty exists regarding the validity of traditional landscape assessment schemes under climate change. This commentary debates the main factors that threaten ecological stability, discussing basic approaches to interpret landscape functioning. To address this pivotal issue, the intimate linkage between ecological stability and landscape diversity is explored, considering different approaches to landscape stability assessment. The impact of land-use changes on landscape stability is finally discussed. Assessment methodologies and indicators are reviewed and grouped into homogeneous classes based on a specific nomenclature of stability aspects which include landscape composition, fragmentation and connectivity, thermodynamic and functional issues, biodiversity, soil degradation, and ecological disturbance. By considering land-use change as one of the most important factors underlying climate change, individual components of landscape stability are finally delineated and commented upon. In this regard, specific trajectories of land-use change (including agricultural intensification, land abandonment, and urbanization) are investigated for their effects on ecological stability. A better understanding of land-use impacts on landscape stability is crucial for a better knowledge of processes leading to land degradation.openProkopova M.; Salvati L.; Egidi G.; Cudlin O.; Vcelakova R.; Plch R.; Cudlin P.Prokopova, M.; Salvati, L.; Egidi, G.; Cudlin, O.; Vcelakova, R.; Plch, R.; Cudlin, P

Soil degradation and socioeconomic systems’ complexity: Uncovering the latent nexus

Understanding Soil Degradation Processes (SDPs) is a fundamental issue for humankind. Soil degradation involves complex processes that are influenced by a multifaceted ensemble of socioeconomic and ecological factors at vastly different spatial scales. Desertification risk (the ultimate outcome of soil degradation, seen as an irreversible process of natural resource destruction) and socioeconomic trends have been recently analyzed assuming “resilience thinking” as an appropriate interpretative paradigm. In a purely socioeconomic dimension, resilience is defined as the ability of a local system to react to external signals and to promote future development. This ability is intrinsically bonded with the socio-ecological dynamics characteristic of environmentally homogeneous districts. However, an evaluation of the relationship between SDPs and socioeconomic resilience in local systems is missing in mainstream literature. Our commentary formulates an exploratory framework for the assessment of soil degradation, intended as a dynamic process of natural resource depletion, and the level of socioeconomic resilience in local systems. Such a framework is intended to provide a suitable background to sustainability science and regional policies at the base of truly resilient local systems

Latent drivers of landscape transformation in eastern Europe. Past, present and future

6siopenLand-use changes in Europe have been influenced by social forces including economic, demographic, political, technological and cultural factors. Contributing to a refined conceptualization of multifaceted processes of landscape transformation in the European continent, the present study proposes an extensive review of land-use trends in Eastern Europe, focusing on past, present and future conditions that may characterize latent drivers of change. Three time periods with a specific institutional, political and socioeconomic context reflecting distinct processes of land-use change were identified including: (i) the rapid transition to a centralized political system since the early 1950s (up to the late 1980s); (ii) a progressive transition from communist regimes to parliamentary democracy in 1989-1990 (up to the early 2000s); and (iii) the subsequent accession of individual countries to the European Union (2004-2007) up to nowadays. The most recent land-use trends are increasingly influenced by European directives on the environment, while national policies continue to shape economic development in member states.openProkopova M.; Cudlin O.; Vcelakova R.; Lengyel S.; Salvati L.; Cudlin P.Prokopova, M.; Cudlin, O.; Vcelakova, R.; Lengyel, S.; Salvati, L.; Cudlin, P

Urban sprawl and desertification risk: unraveling the latent nexus in a mediterranean country

The Mediterranean region is exposed to desertification risk because of the joint impact of soil degradation, land-use change and global warming, although the individual role of such drivers has been occasionally investigated. The present study clarifies the spatial linkage between desertification risk and urbanization, intended as a pervasive form of landscape transformation in Southern Europe, by analyzing trends over time in the Environmentally Sensitive Area Index (1960–2010) at different settlement densities in Italy. Seven density classes, representing a vast range of local contexts from pristine, natural sites to peri-urban conditions with moderate (or high) human pressure, were considered. While land surface with medium-high settlement density increased between 1960 and 2010, reflecting semi-dense urban growth (1960–1990) and settlement sprawl (1990–2010), the spatial distribution and extent of land sensitive to desertification in Italy followed more complex dynamics over both time and space. Divergences in the level of desertification risk along the settlement density gradient increased markedly in 1990 and 2010. The highest level of risk was observed for land with intermediate settlement density, representing economically dynamic rural contexts with high (and possibly increasing) human pressure. Despite some exceptions, a lower level of risk was observed in urban and peri-urban areas with denser settlements. The spatially asymmetric increase in the level of desertification risk contributed to alter the polarization in affected and non-affected areas characteristic of early-1960s Italy. A rising impact of settlement density on desertification risk has been recorded in more recent years. Based on the empirical results of this study, National Action Plans to combat desertification in Mediterranean Europe are definitely required to incorporate specific measures of urban containment and mitigation of the negative effect of sprawl on land degradation at a local scale

Moving toward the north: A country-level classification of land sensitivity to degradation in Czech Republic

Land sensitivity to degradation is a spatially varying attribute of local systems that experience rapid changes in socio-ecological conditions. To answer the increasing demand of quantitative risk assessment of land degradation and desertification - taken as a final stage of land degradation - in non-affected countries, our study estimates land sensitivity to degradation in the Czech Republic at 1:10,000 scale using the Environmental Sensitive Area (ESA) framework. Czech land was classified into four sensitivity levels (‘insensitive’, ‘potentially sensitive’, ‘fragile’, and ‘critical’). ‘Fragile’ and ‘critical’ land concentrated in accessible lowlands with intensive agriculture. Climate and vegetation quality contributed the most to land sensitivity to degradation in the country. Low soil quality and land management quality were causes of land sensitivity in few, sparse agricultural districts. A comparison with Mediterranean and South-Eastern European countries indicates that land sensitivity to degradation in the Czech Republic is only slightly lower than in neighbouring, affected countries (sensu UNCCD, Annex IV), with the same acting drivers (agriculture intensification and urban sprawl). In light of climate change, national and regional policies are required to face with the increase of land sensitivity in ‘formally non-affected’ countries of Central-Eastern Europe, taking stock of the ‘Mediterranean’ experience in assessing and managing land sensitivity to degradation

Re-framing the latent nexus between land-use change, urbanization and demographic transitions in advanced economies

The linkage between land-use change and demographic transitions in advanced countries has becoming increasingly complex because of the mutual interplay of environmental and socioeconomic spheres influencing the degree of sustainability of both regional and local developmental processes. The relationship between urbanization and economic development has been relatively well investigated by clarifying the consequent impacts on population dynamics. In the early phases of urbanization and economic development, population grew at a particularly high rate, declining (more or less rapidly) in the subsequent time interval. Improving income and education opportunities in urban settings resulted in further urbanization, leading to progressively lower fertility. At the same time, a more general view on the relationship between land-use change and demographic transition focusing on a broader spectrum of landscape processes (including farmland abandonment and forest expansion) at larger spatial scales (from regional to country and continental scale) is increasingly required. The present study provides an integrated view of the relationship between land-use change, urbanization, and demographic transitions with specific focus on Europe. Considering divergent processes of landscape transformations in a unified socioeconomic view may evidence the intimate linkage with recent population trends in both urban and rural areas