Non-Monotonic Welfare Dynamics in a Model of Sustained Income Growth

In an overlapping generations economy with endogenous income growth, I combine themes from the work of Cooper et al. (2001), Kapur (2005), and Eaton and Eswaran (2009) in order to provide an example of an economy whose welfare dynamics are non-monotonic. Particularly, the evolution of workers’ welfare can be distinguished between two different regimes that arise naturally during the process of economic development. At relatively early stages, status concerns are inactive and welfare increases following the rising consumption of normal goods. During the later stages, however, workers engage in some type of status competition that does not allow consumption to improve well-being: their welfare actually declines as successive generations of workers increase their labour effort at the expense of leisure.Welfare; Economic growth; Positional goods; Leisure

On stabilisation policy: Are there conflicting implications for growth and welfare?

The paper examines the choices for fiscal stabilisation policy that maximise aggregate welfare and long-run growth. This is done in the context of a stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model where premeditated learning provides the engine of human capital accumulation and growth, and technology shocks provide the impulse source of fluctuations. Contrary to existing conventional wisdom, the results indicate a conflict between the two policy objectives: the choice of no stabilisation, associated with maximum growth, is also associated with minimum welfare. Welfare maximisation requires a full stabilisation response to the occurrence of business cycles.money; growth; volatility.

On the Joint Dynamics of Pollution and Capital Accumulation*

The current paper offers a new explanation on the emergence of threshold effects and multiple equilibria, for which the high (low) income equilibrium is associated with high (low) environmental quality. This new explanation rests on endogenous technological choice in the presence of environmental taxation – an idea whose foundations find strong support from existing empirical evidence. Thus, the interactions between environmental policy and technology choice, within a framework that accounts for the health effects of pollution, can explain some of the observed differences in income, life expectancy and environmental quality among countries.Pollution; Capital accumulation; Endogenous longevity; Multiple equilibria

Pollution Abatement in a Model of Capital Accumulation and Endogenous Longevity

The effort to reduce pollution entails economic benefits because improved environmental quality advances the health status of the population and reduces mortality. Yet, there are also economic costs accruing from this effort because activities towards environmental improvement require resources to be extracted away from capital investment. This paper examines the extent to which pollution abatement policies may, ultimately, increase or decrease income. This is done in the context of a dynamic general equilibrium model, in which the interactions of the dynamics between capital accumulation and environmental quality occur through the flow of pollution generated by economic activity and the beneficial effect of environmental quality on longevity.Pollution abatement; environmental quality; longevity; capital accumulation

Volatile public spending in a model of money and sustainable growth

In a model where seignorage provides the financing instrument for the government’s budget, public spending volatility has an adverse effect on long-run growth. This negative relationship arises because the incidence of volatility in this type of public policy is responsible for higher average money growth, thus induces individuals to devote less time/effort towards capital accumulation. Another implication of the model is that policy variability provides a possible argument behind the positive correlation between inflation and inflation variability.Growth, Inflation, Seignorage, Volatility

Fertility Choices, Human Capital Accumulation, and Endogenous Volatility

In a three-period overlapping generations model, I show that different combinations of preference and technological parameters can lead to different patterns on the joint evolution of human capital and (endogenous) fertility choices. These patterns may include threshold effects and multiple equilibria as well as endogenous fluctuations. In the latter case, fertility is procyclical. Contrary to existing analyses, endogenous economic fluctuations emerge only when the substitution effects (rather than the income effects) dominate. I also show that the elasticity of intertemporal substitution may be an additional factor determining whether the economy can sustain a positive growth rate in the long-run.Fertility; Human capital; Cycles

Environmental Quality, Life Expectancy, and Sustainable Economic Growth

I construct a model of a growing economy with pollution. The analysis of the model shows that the interactions between capital accumulation, endogenous longevity and environmental quality determine both the long-run growth rate of the economy and the pattern of convergence (i.e., monotonic or cyclical) towards the balanced growth path. I argue that such interactions can provide a possible explanatory factor behind the, empirically observed, negative correlation of longrun growth with its short-term cycles. Furthermore, the model may capture the observed pattern whereby economic growth and mortality rates appear to be negatively related in the long-run, but positively related in the short-run.Environmental quality; longevity; economic growth; cycles

On the Joint Dynamics of Pollution and Capital Accumulation

I construct an overlapping generations model in which (the endogenous) longevity is impeded by the stock of pollution and promoted by public health spending. I provide an alternative explanation for the so-called environmental Kuznets curve – an explanation which gives an active role to environmental quality as a contributing factor to capital accumulation and growth. I also examine how variations in environment-related parameters determine the effect of taxation in economic development.Overlapping generations; Pollution; Capital accumulation; Endogenous longevity

Sustained Output Growth Under Uncertainty: A Simple Model With Human Capital

In a model where agents use their labour/education choice to adjust their consumption profile over time, I show that the impact of uncertainty on growth depends, critically, on agents’ attitudes towards risk, reflected by the coefficient of relative risk aversion. In this respect, the well known result from the literature on ‘saving under uncertainty’ can be extended into a broader context, whereby the intertemporal profile of consumption is determined via human capital accumulation rather than saving and physical capital investment.Growth, Uncertainty

Inflation, Variability, and the Evolution of Human Capital in a Model with Transactions Costs

In a monetary growth model, I show that average inflation inhibits growth while inflation volatility enhances it. The effect of nominal volatility on human capital accumulation depends on the response of money demand and the corresponding extent of transactions costs rather than from a direct, precautionary motive.money; growth; volatility.