The 2014 Earthquake Model of the Middle East: seismogenic sources

The Earthquake Model of Middle East (EMME) project was carried out between 2010 and 2014 to provide a harmonized seismic hazard assessment without country border limitations. The result covers eleven countries: Afghanistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Cyprus, Georgia, Iran, Jordan, Lebanon, Pakistan, Syria and Turkey, which span one of the seismically most active regions on Earth in response to complex interactions between four major tectonic plates i.e. Africa, Arabia, India and Eurasia. Destructive earthquakes with great loss of life and property are frequent within this region, as exemplified by the recent events of Izmit (Turkey, 1999), Bam (Iran, 2003), Kashmir (Pakistan, 2005), Van (Turkey, 2011), and Hindu Kush (Afghanistan, 2015). We summarize multidisciplinary data (seismicity, geology, and tectonics) compiled and used to characterize the spatial and temporal distribution of earthquakes over the investigated region. We describe the development process of the model including the delineation of seismogenic sources and the description of methods and parameters of earthquake recurrence models, all representing the current state of knowledge and practice in seismic hazard assessment. The resulting seismogenic source model includes seismic sources defined by geological evidence and active tectonic findings correlated with measured seismicity patterns. A total of 234 area sources fully cross-border-harmonized are combined with 778 seismically active faults along with background-smoothed seismicity. Recorded seismicity (both historical and instrumental) provides the input to estimate rates of earthquakes for area sources and background seismicity while geologic slip-rates are used to characterize fault-specific earthquake recurrences. Ultimately, alternative models of intrinsic uncertainties of data, procedures and models are considered when used for calculation of the seismic hazard. At variance to previous models of the EMME region, we provide a homogeneous seismic source model representing a consistent basis for the next generation of seismic hazard models within the region.Published3465-34966T. Studi di pericolosità sismica e da maremotoJCR Journa

Earthquakes vulnerability and disaster risk Georgia case

The Republic of Georgia, located on the East coast of the Black Sea, is prone to multiple natural hazards, the most dangerous and devastating of which are strong earthquakes. This work issues a call for advance planning and action to reduce natural disaster risks, notably seismic risk through the investigation of vulnerability and seismic hazard for Georgia. Ground motion prediction equations are essential for several purposes ranging from seismic design and analysis to probabilistic seismic hazard assessment. Seismic hazard maps were calculated based on modern approach of selecting and ranking global and regional ground motion prediction equation for region. We have also applied the host-to-target method in two regions in Georgia with different source mechanisms. According to the tectonic regime of the target areas, two different regions are chosen as host regions. One of them is the North Anatolian Fault zone in Turkey with the dominant strike-slip source mechanism while the other is Tabas in Iran with mostly events of reverse mechanism. We performed stochastic finite-fault simulations in both host and target areas and employed the hybrid-empirical method as introduced and outlined in Campbell (2003). An initial hybrid empirical ground motion model is developed for PGA and SA at selected periods for Georgia. An application of these coefficients for ground motion models have been used in probabilistic seismic hazard assessment. Intensity based vulnerability study were completed for Georgian buildings. Finally, Probabilistic seismic risk assessment in terms of structural damage and casualties were calculated. This methodology gave prediction of damage and casualty for a given probability of recurrence, based on a probabilistic seismic hazard model, population distribution, inventory, and vulnerability of building

The 2014 seismic hazard model of the Middle East: overview and results

The Earthquake Model of Middle East (EMME) Project aimed to develop regional scale seismic hazard and risk models uniformly throughout a region extending from the Eastern Mediterranean in the west to the Himalayas in the east and from the Gulf of Oman in the south to the Greater Caucasus in the North; a region which has been continuously devastated by large earthquakes throughout the history. The 2014 Seismic Hazard Model of Middle East (EMME-SHM14) was developed with the contribution of several institutions from ten countries. The present paper summarizes the efforts towards building a homogeneous seismic hazard model of the region and highlights some of the main results of this model. An important aim of the project was to transparently communicate the data and methods used and to obtain reproducible results. By doing so, the use of the model and results will be accessible by a wide community, further support the mitigation of seismic risks in the region and facilitate future improvements to the seismic hazard model. To this end all data, results and methods used are made available through the web-portal of the European Facilities for Earthquake Hazard and Risk (www.efehr.org)