Tourism, Economic Expansion and Poverty in Nicaragua: Investigating Cointegration and Causal Relations

Replaced with revised version of paper 09/10/07.Food Security and Poverty, International Development,

Cointegration and Causality between Tourism and Poverty Reduction

This study, using cointegration and causality tests, investigates the relationship among tourism development, economic expansion, and poverty reduction in Nicaragua. The results indicate a long-run stable relationship among the three. The causality tests suggest a one-way Granger causal relation between tourism development and economic expansion, and between tourism and poverty reduction, and a bidirectional causal relation between economic expansion and poverty. The nexus of tourism, economic expansion, and poverty reduction is established in the Nicaraguan economy. This result is supported by testing the sensitivity of the Granger causality test under different lag selections along the optimal lag. The empirical evidence points to the potential economic muscle of tourism to seriously tackle Nicaraguan poverty at scale through helping both Nicaragua’s public and private sectors allocate resources to tourism development, resulting in the overall improvement of the economy

ECONOMIC ADJUSTMENT, AGRICULTURE AND THE LABOR MARKET IN UGANDA

This paper investigates the scale of the economic crisis in Uganda and the impacts on agriculture, identifies the major labour market changes and explores selected policy measures to attack on rural-urban unemployment. Section II, starts from the scale of the crisis and the need to adjust the Ugandan economy to overcome the resurgence of unemployment. In Section III, the costs of adjustment and rural-urban migration are presented. Policy measures to attack rural-urban unemployment are presented in section IV

ECONOMIC ADJUSTMENT, AGRICULTURE AND THE LABOR MARKET IN UGANDA

This paper investigates the scale of the economic crisis in Uganda and the impacts on agriculture, identifies the major labour market changes and explores selected policy measures to attack on rural-urban unemployment. Section II, starts from the scale of the crisis and the need to adjust the Ugandan economy to overcome the resurgence of unemployment. In Section III, the costs of adjustment and rural-urban migration are presented. Policy measures to attack rural-urban unemployment are presented in section IV.International Development, Labor and Human Capital,

Tourism, Economic Expansion and Poverty in Nicaragua: Investigating Cointegration and Causal Relations

This study examines the causal relationship between tourism expansion, economic growth and poverty for the Nicaraguan economy. Using co-integration and causality tests, the study’s results lend support to the proposition that tourism has a significant positive impact on Nicaragua’s economic expansion and development. With the knowledge from the output test, the study uses a regression analysis to test the hypothesis that income growth and tourism development would lead to a decline in the proportion of people below the poverty line. The paper presents arguments in support of the proposition that tourism, as a source of economic growth and development, offers a convincing case for the use of policy instruments focused to drive a tourism-based economy or tourism programs. It discusses its potential to stimulate further research designed to have the best available estimates of tourism impacts on variables such as economic growth and poverty

Cointegration and Causality between Tourism and Poverty Reduction

This study, using cointegration and causality tests, investigates the relationship among tourism development, economic expansion, and poverty reduction in Nicaragua. The results indicate a long-run stable relationship among the three. The causality tests suggest a one-way Granger causal relation between tourism development and economic expansion, and between tourism and poverty reduction, and a bidirectional causal relation between economic expansion and poverty. The nexus of tourism, economic expansion, and poverty reduction is established in the Nicaraguan economy. This result is supported by testing the sensitivity of the Granger causality test under different lag selections along the optimal lag. The empirical evidence points to the potential economic muscle of tourism to seriously tackle Nicaraguan poverty at scale through helping both Nicaragua’s public and private sectors allocate resources to tourism development, resulting in the overall improvement of the economy