Regional housing market spillovers in the US: lessons from regional divergences in a common monetary policy setting

In this paper, we seek to quantify the importance of state-level housing price spillovers and interest rate shocks to house price developments in the United States. The econometric approach involves an application of the recently developed global VAR (GVAR) as presented in Dées, DiMauro, Pesaran, and Smith (2005) and Pesaran, Schuermann, and Weiner (2004) to the 31 biggest US states over the period 1986-2005. Such an approach allows not only for the empirical derivation of the impact of common shocks (such as interest rate shocks) on US house price developments, but also for an analysis of the importance of interstate housing price spillovers. Beyond real house prices and real income per capita, each state-specific vector error correction model also includes nation-wide variables — measured as a weighted average of other states —. These individual state models are then linked in a consistent and cohesive manner. Impact elasticities indicate strong interregional linkages for both real house prices and real income per capita. An analysis of generalised impulse responses indicates that the importance of housing price spillovers is state dependent, with shocks occurring in states with relatively lower land supply elasticities having much stronger spillover effects that those in the other states. As regards real interest rates, the impact appears to be relatively small with an increase of 100 basis points in the real 10-year government bond yield resulting in a long run fall in house prices of between 0.5 and 2.5%. This would suggest, in line with DelNegro and Otrok (2005) that the decline in long-term interest rates is not the primary factor that has driven the recent surge in house prices in the United States. JEL Classification: C32, E44, R10, R31global VAR (GVAR), housing, monetary policy

CλC_{\lambda}-extended oscillator algebras and some of their deformations and applications to quantum mechanics

$C_{\lambda}$-extended oscillator algebras generalizing the Calogero-Vasiliev algebra, where $C_{\lambda}$ is the cyclic group of order $\lambda$, are studied both from mathematical and applied viewpoints. Casimir operators of the algebras are obtained, and used to provide a complete classification of their unitary irreducible representations under the assumption that the number operator spectrum is nondegenerate. Deformed algebras admitting Casimir operators analogous to those of their undeformed counterparts are looked for, yielding three new algebraic structures. One of them includes the Brzezi\'nski {\em et al.} deformation of the Calogero-Vasiliev algebra as a special case. In its bosonic Fock-space representation, the realization of $C_{\lambda}$-extended oscillator algebras as generalized deformed oscillator ones is shown to provide a bosonization of several variants of supersymmetric quantum mechanics: parasupersymmetric quantum mechanics of order $p = \lambda-1$ for any $\lambda$, as well as pseudosupersymmetric and orthosupersymmetric quantum mechanics of order two for $\lambda=3$.Comment: 48 pages, LaTeX with amssym, no figures, to be published in Int. J. Theor. Phy

What Triggers Prolonged Inflation Regimes? A Historical Analysis

This paper empirically assesses which factors trigger prolonged periods of inflation for a sample of 91 countries over the period 1960-2006. The paper employs pooled probit analysis to estimate the contribution of the key factors to inflation starts. The empirical results suggest that for all cases considered a more fixed exchange rate regime and lower real policy rates increase the probability of an inflation start. For developing countries, other relevant factors include food price inflation, the degree of trade openness, the level of past inflation, the ratio of external debt to GDP and the durability of the political regime. For advanced economies, these factors turn out to be statistically insignificant but instead a positive output gap, higher global inflation and a less democratic environment were seen to be detrimental for triggering inflation starts. Finally, oil prices, M2 growth and government spending were never statistically significant. JEL Classification: E31, E58.emerging markets, inflation, Panel Probit

On psychological growth and vulnerability: basic psychological need satisfaction and need frustration as an unifying principle

Humans have a potential for growth, integration, and well-being, while also being vulnerable to defensiveness, aggression, and ill-being. Self-determination theory (R. M. Ryan & E. L. Deci, 2000, Self-determination theory and the facilitation of intrinsic motivation, social development and well-being, American Psychologist, Vol. 55, pp. 68–78) argues that satisfaction of the basic psychological needs for autonomy, competence, and relatedness both fosters immediate well-being and strengthens inner resources contributing to subsequent resilience, whereas need frustration evokes ill-being and increased vulnerabilities for defensiveness and psychopathology. We briefly review recent research indicating how contextual need support and the experience of need satisfaction promote well-being and different growth manifestations (e.g., intrinsic motivation, internalization), as well as a rapidly growing body of work relating need thwarting and need frustration to ill-being, pursuit of need substitutes, and various forms of maladaptive functioning. Finally, we discuss research on differences in autonomous self-regulation and mindfulness, which serve as factors of resilience

Representation Theory of Generalized Deformed Oscillator Algebras

The representation theory of the generalized deformed oscillator algebras (GDOA's) is developed. GDOA's are generated by the four operators ${1,a,a^{\dag},N}$. Their commutators and Hermiticity properties are those of the boson oscillator algebra, except for $[a, a^{\dag}]_q = G(N)$, where $[a,b]_q = a b - q b a$ and $G(N)$ is a Hermitian, analytic function. The unitary irreductible representations are obtained by means of a Casimir operator $C$ and the semi-positive operator $a^{\dag} a$. They may belong to one out of four classes: bounded from below (BFB), bounded from above (BFA), finite-dimentional (FD), unbounded (UB). Some examples of these different types of unirreps are given.Comment: 8 pages, LaTeX, no figures, submitted to Proc. 5th Int. Coll. ``Quantum Groups and Integrable Systems'', Prague, 20-22 June 1996 (to be published in Czech. J. Phys.

Pseudosupersymmetric quantum mechanics: General case, orthosupersymmetries, reducibility, and bosonization

Pseudosupersymmetric quantum mechanics (PsSSQM), based upon the use of pseudofermions, was introduced in the context of a new Kemmer equation describing charged vector mesons interacting with an external constant magnetic field. Here we construct the complete explicit solution for its realization in terms of two superpotentials, both equal or unequal. We prove that any orthosupersymmetric quantum mechanical system has a pseudosupersymmetry and give conditions under which a pseudosupersymmetric one may be described by orthosupersymmetries of order two. We propose two new matrix realizations of PsSSQM in terms of the generators of a generalized deformed oscillator algebra (GDOA) and relate them to the cases of equal or unequal superpotentials, respectively. We demonstrate that these matrix realizations are fully reducible and that their irreducible components provide two distinct sets of bosonized operators realizing PsSSQM and corresponding to nonlinear spectra. We relate such results to some previous ones obtained for a GDOA connected with a $C_3$-extended oscillator algebra (where $C_3 = {\rm Z}_3$) in the case of linear spectra.Comment: 28 pages, no figure, LaTeX 2e, amssym; minor changes, new section (Sec. 2) adde

International trade, technological shocks and spillovers in the labour market: A GVAR analysis of the US manufacturing sector

We empirically analyse the response of US manufacturing labour market variables to various shocks, notably to trade openness and technology. The econometric approach involves an application of the recently developed global VAR (GVAR) methodology of D¶ees, DiMauro, Pesaran, and Smith (2005) to 12 manufacturing industries over the period 1977-2003. This frame-work allows for an assessment of both shocks to weakly exogenous variables and intra-industry spillovers. In this vein, beyond a standard set of labour-market related variables (employment, real compensation, productivity and capital stock) and exogenous factors (a sector-specific measure of trade openness, along with common technology and oil price shocks), specific measures of manufacturing-wide variables are included for each sector. Generalised impulse responses indicate that increased trade openness negatively affects real compensation, has negligible employment effects and leads to higher labour productivity. These impacts, however, are relatively weaker those induced by technology shocks, with the latter positively and significantly affecting both real compensation and employment. There is also evidence of positive spill-overs across industries from sector-specific employment and productivity shocks. Impact elasticities suggest strong intra-sectoral linkages for employment and capital stock formation, contrasting with weak linkages for what concerns real compensation and productivity. JEL Classification: F16, J01, O33Global VAR (GVAR), impulse responses, labour market, Technological Change, Trade

Fiscal policies, the current account and Ricardian equivalence

This paper analyses the empirical relationship between fiscal policy and the current account of the balance of payments and considers how Ricardian equivalence changes this relationship. To do so, we estimate a dynamic panel threshold model for 22 industrialised countries in which the relationship between the current account and the government balance is allowed to alter according to the government debt to GDP ratio. The results show that for countries with debt to GDP ratios up to 90% the relationship between the government balance and the current account is positive, i.e. an increase in the fiscal deficit leads to a higher current account deficit. For very high debt countries this relationship however turns negative but insignificant, suggesting that a rise in the fiscal deficit does not result in a rise in the current account deficit. Implicitly this result suggests that households in very hight debt countries tend to become Ricardian. Estimating the same model for the 11 largest euro area countries shows that the reationship between the govnerment balance and the current account turns statistically insignificant when the debt to GDP ratio exceeds 80%. JEL Classification: F32, E62, F41current account, Fiscal Policy, panel threshold model