Russia from Bust to Boom: Oil, Politics or the Ruble?

This paper develops and estimates a small macroeconomic model of the Russian economy. The model is tailored to analyze the impact of the oil price, the exchange rate, and political stability on economic performance. The model does very well in explaining Russia’s economic history in the period 1995-2002. We then use the model to simulate two sets of scenarios, one with various oil price scenarios and one with various adverse shocks. The simulations suggest that the Russian economy is still very vulnerable to oil price swings, and that these swings have asymmetric effects. Indeed the cost of a downward swing of oil prices seems to be larger than the benefit of an upward swing. We also find that the aggregate effects of an oil price collapse are comparable to these of renewed political instability. Although their propagation mechanism is quite different, both adverse shocks do have a similar effect on real GDP. A real exchange rate appreciation on the other hand has relatively mild effects on real GDP. All in all, it is suggested that Russia should reduce its vulnerability to adverse oil price shocks and maintain political stability.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/40108/3/wp722.pd

Russia from Bust to Boom: Oil, Politics or the Ruble?

This paper develops and estimates a small macroeconomic model of the Russian economy. The model is tailored to analyze the impact of the oil price, the exchange rate, and political stability on economic performance. The model does very well in explaining Russia’s economic history in the period 1995-2002. We then use the model to simulate two sets of scenarios, one with various oil price scenarios and one with various adverse shocks. The simulations suggest that the Russian economy is still very vulnerable to oil price swings, and that these swings have asymmetric effects. Indeed the cost of a downward swing of oil prices seems to be larger than the benefit of an upward swing. We also find that the aggregate effects of an oil price collapse are comparable to these of renewed political instability. Although their propagation mechanism is quite different, both adverse shocks do have a similar effect on real GDP. A real exchange rate appreciation on the other hand has relatively mild effects on real GDP. All in all, it is suggested that Russia should reduce its vulnerability to adverse oil price shocks and maintain political stability.Russia, Macroeconomic Modeling, Macroeconomic stabilization

Loan maturity aggregation in interbank lending networks obscures mesoscale structure and economic functions

Since the 2007-2009 financial crisis, substantial academic effort has been dedicated to improving our understanding of interbank lending networks (ILNs). Because of data limitations or by choice, the literature largely lacks multiple loan maturities. We employ a complete interbank loan contract dataset to investigate whether maturity details are informative of the network structure. Applying the layered stochastic block model of Peixoto (2015) and other tools from network science on a time series of bilateral loans with multiple maturity layers in the Russian ILN, we find that collapsing all such layers consistently obscures mesoscale structure. The optimal maturity granularity lies between completely collapsing and completely separating the maturity layers and depends on the development phase of the interbank market, with a more developed market requiring more layers for optimal description. Closer inspection of the inferred maturity bins associated with the optimal maturity granularity reveals specific economic functions, from liquidity intermediation to financing. Collapsing a network with multiple underlying maturity layers or extracting one such layer, common in economic research, is therefore not only an incomplete representation of the ILN's mesoscale structure, but also conceals existing economic functions. This holds important insights and opportunities for theoretical and empirical studies on interbank market functioning, contagion, stability, and on the desirable level of regulatory data disclosure

Survey research with families in the context of pediatric chronic health conditions : key considerations and future directions

Self-report family functioning measures play a critical role in advancing our understanding of how families are impacted by, and adapt to, the demands of childhood health conditions. In this article, we present key considerations when conceptualizing, assessing, and analyzing dynamic family processes in research; discuss related implications for selecting instruments; and provide an update on the evidence base of self-report family functioning measures. Researchers need to consider theory, definitions of the family, informants, instruments, and procedural and data analytic issues when designing family research. Examples of questionnaires assessing general family functioning, dyadic relationships, and family functioning within the context of pediatric health conditions are provided. Additional evidence of validity, reliability, clinical utility, and cultural sensitivity of these measures is needed within pediatric chronic illness populations. Future research should include multiple family members and utilize varied assessment methods to obtain a comprehensive understanding of family functioning in the context of pediatric health conditions

Siblings dealing with pediatric cancer : a family- and context-oriented approach

Background: Pediatric cancer is a severe life-threatening disease that poses significant challenges to the life of the siblings. Based on the social ecology model, the current study is aimed at exploring the association between intrafamilial (family functioning, family support) and contextual (network support) resources, and the individual adjustment of siblings facing cancer in their brother/sister. Methods: Participants were 81 siblings of children with leukemia or non-Hodgkin lymphoma. The mean siblings' age was 10.32 years. Siblings completed the Family Environment Scale, the Social Support Questionnaire for Children, the Situation-Specific Emotional Reactions Questionnaire, and the Pediatric Quality of Life Inventory. Data were analyzed using a multi-level approach. Results: Family functioning, family support, and network support proved to be related to siblings' cancer-related emotional reactions post-diagnosis. In addition, the present study suggests taking into account the gender of the ill child and the age of the siblings. Discussion: Our findings led to the conclusion that resources at both the intrafamilial level and the contextual level are important for explaining sibling adjustment post-diagnosis. Interventions targeting the sibling, the family, and the external network are warranted to enhance sibling adjustment

Social Stability and Extended Social Balance - Quantifying the Role of Inactive Links in Social Networks

Structural balance in social network theory starts from signed networks with active relationships (friendly or hostile) to establish a hierarchy between four different types of triadic relationships. The lack of an active link also provides information about the network. To exploit the information that remains uncovered by structural balance, we introduce the inactive relationship that accounts for both neutral and nonexistent ties between two agents. This addition results in ten types of triads, with the advantage that the network analysis can be done with complete networks. To each type of triadic relationship, we assign an energy that is a measure for its average occupation probability. Finite temperatures account for a persistent form of disorder in the formation of the triadic relationships. We propose a Hamiltonian with three interaction terms and a chemical potential (capturing the cost of edge activation) as an underlying model for the triadic energy levels. Our model is suitable for empirical analysis of political networks and allows to uncover generative mechanisms. It is tested on an extended data set for the standings between two classes of alliances in a massively multi-player on-line game (MMOG) and on real-world data for the relationships between countries during the Cold War era. We find emergent properties in the triadic relationships between the nodes in a political network. For example, we observe a persistent hierarchy between the ten triadic energy levels across time and networks. In addition, the analysis reveals consistency in the extracted model parameters and a universal data collapse of a derived combination of global properties of the networks. We illustrate that the model has predictive power for the transition probabilities between the different triadic states.Comment: 21 pages, 10 figure

Family members dealing with childhood cancer : a study on the role of family functioning and cancer appraisal

Objectives: Childhood cancer is a life-threatening disease that poses significant challenges to the life of the diagnosed child and his/her family members. Based on the ABCX-model, the aim of the current study was to explore the association between family functioning, cancer appraisal and the individual adjustment of patients, parents and siblings. Methods: Participants were 60 children with leukemia or non-Hodgkin lymphoma, 172 parents and 78 siblings (115 families). Time since diagnosis varied from zero to 33 months. Patients, parents and siblings completed the Family Environment Scale (FES), Perceived Stress Scale, Situation-Specific Emotional Reactions Questionnaire and Pediatric Quality of Life Inventory/Maudsley Marital Questionnaire. Results: Family functioning and the appraisal of the cancer diagnosis proved to be related to patients', parents' and siblings' cancer-related emotions and quality of life post-diagnosis. In addition, family members differed in their perception of some family functioning domains, the appraisal of the cancer diagnosis, positive feelings and quality of life. Discussion: Our findings led to the conclusion that family functioning and the appraisal of the cancer diagnosis are important for the individual adjustment of patients, parents and siblings when facing a diagnosis of cancer in the child. Differences across members within one family and differences between families speak to the need of screening all family members and intervening at the level of individual as well as the family unit

The family practice of support-giving after a pediatric cancer diagnosis : a multi-family member interview analysis

Purpose: Pediatric cancer presents many challenges to the life of the child diagnosed with cancer and his/her family. Among the studies investigating risk and protective factors, social support has emerged as an important construct. However, little is known on how family members support each other in this particular context. Method: In order to further explore this process, interviews were performed separately with mothers, fathers and siblings. For the purpose of this study (as this is part of a larger project), data from four families in which both parents and at least one sibling participated, were used. Mull Family Member Interview Analysis was used as the methodological framework to analyze the individual interviews, allowing a detailed and systematic analysis of shared family experiences. Results: The analysis of the data revealed three themes: Being together matters: the families identified the need of being physically together; Finding support in (not) talking: the complexity of sharing emotions was explained and Working together as a team: the families described working together as a team in order to get everything organized. Conclusions: This study broadens our understanding of the interpersonal process of family support-giving when facing pediatric cancer. When meeting with families, families should be invited as a unit in order to best capture family level experiences. Also, clinicians should be sensitive to the different cancer-related communication needs within the family (i.e., the need to talk or not to talk) and incorporate this knowledge into their care

Dielectric Breakdown of Epoxy-Based Composites: Relative Influence of Physical and Chemical Aging

International audienceThe effect of aging on the dielectric strength of epoxy-inorganic particle composites used for insulators in the high voltage industry is reported. A Differential Scanning Calorimetry analysis of an insulator aged twenty years in actual service conditions indicated both a chemical degradation and a structural recovery of the polymer network. This composite exhibited however a breakdown field comparable to that of a fresh sample with the same formulation. An accelerated physical aging was thus performed which lead to a large increase in the high voltage performance of the newly processes composite over time. This improvement was attributed to a densification of the thermoset resin, which impeded tree growth. It was also observed that the choice of the electrode geometry greatly alters the measurements under high electric field. In a quasi-homogeneous field configuration, the breakdown was mainly governed by the major flaws at the sample scale, namely the reinforcing particles. On the contrary, under a divergent field (with a point – plane electrode arrangement), the field was essentially localized at the point electrode tip, and the major flaws might not be reachable by the damage tree. It hence appeared that the measurements performed in a quasi-homogeneous field are not very sensitive to the variations within the polymeric matrix as are the measurements under a divergent field