Evidence-based decision-making in supporting integrated local-level urban and climate change adaptation planning simultaneously: A simulation-optimisation approach

Sustainable development is at the heart of city planning, and urbanisation plays a central role in achieving the Sustainable Development Goals. Urbanisation, however, is interlaced with existential challenges such as climate change. The National Government has developed an overabundance of national plans to foster sustainable economic development, which has led to a plethora of acts that place many statutory requirements on municipalities. This article gives a critical review of these national plans, the statutory requirements, and the resultant planning frameworks and instruments. The main findings are that many national plans did not make adequate progress and that acts and planning instruments do not require policy interventions or long-term visions to be tested before being implemented. This might contribute to fragmentation, poor coordination, and neglecting the impact of climate change. Case studies based on simulation models being used locally as decision-support tools are presented before a case is made for the use of Integrated Land Use and Transport models to test policy interventions that include urban and climate planning. An enhanced simulation-optimisation framework is proposed to allow planners to determine the best means to achieve specific targets. This framework is useful as many government departments know ‘what’ they wish to achieve, but often struggle to determine ‘how’ to achieve these targets, let alone whether they are even achievable

Modelling logistics behaviour in the FMCG industry

Paper presented at the 33rd Annual Southern African Transport Conference 7-10 July 2014 "Leading Transport into the Future", CSIR International Convention Centre, Pretoria, South Africa.The state-of-practice in commercial vehicle modelling often neglects the sophisticated behaviour found between stakeholders in a supply chain and the impact thereof on the ultimate vehicle flow. The state-of-the-art in commercial vehicle modelling needs to capture this behaviour to accurately predict the influence of changes in the supply chain. In this paper, we discuss how changes in the behaviour of the receiver influence the behaviour of the shipper and carrier, while focussing on a supply chain in the Fast Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) industry. Retailers in the FMCG industry typically order in large quantities with high stock turnover rates. Utilising an order policy, they place orders with suppliers, either replenishing stock to a predetermined level every certain number of days or once a certain re-order point is reached. The supplier (the shipper and carrier) utilises route optimisation and scheduling of deliveries to cater for the demand of its customers. We show how the behaviour of these stakeholders can be captured in an agent-based modelling environment and how the behaviour of the shipper and carrier is sensitive for changes in the order policies of its customers.This paper was transferred from the original CD ROM created for this conference. The material was published using Adobe Acrobat 10.1.0 Technology. The original CD ROM was produced by CE Projects cc. Postal Address: PO Box 560 Irene 0062 South Africa. Tel.: +27 12 667 2074 Fax: +27 12 667 2766 E-mail: [email protected]

A multi-objective optimization approach for disaggregating employment data

In many countries, including South Africa, data on employment is rarely available on a downscaled level, such as building level, and is only available on less detailed levels, such as municipal level. The aim of this research was to develop a methodology to disaggregate the employment data that is available at an aggregate level to a disaggregate, detailed building level. To achieve this, the methodology consisted of two parts. First, a method was established that could be used to prepare a base data set to be used for disaggregating the employment data. Second, a multiobjective optimization approach was used to allocate the number of employment opportunities within a municipality to building level. The algorithm was developed using an Evolutionary Algorithm framework and applied to a case study in a metropolitan municipality in South Africa. The results showed favorable use of multiobjective optimization to disaggregate employment data to building level. By enhancing the detail of employment data, planners, policy makers, modelers and other users of such data can benefit from understanding employment patterns at a much more detailed level and making improved decisions based on disaggregated data and models.https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/15384632hj2023Geography, Geoinformatics and Meteorolog

Generating intra and inter-provincial commercial vehicle activity chains

Modelling large-scale traffic flow systems at a disaggregate level can be data intensive as it requires extensive knowledge about the activities and activity chains of vehicles. This paper focuses on activity chain generation for commercial vehicles. We use a large sample of GPS records to extract a complex network and sample chain characteristics from. The paper makes a valuable contribution in both its methodology, and in its focus on intra and inter-provincial vehicle populations simultaneously. The simulated chains are validated in terms of vehicle kilometrekilometres travelled and its spatiotemporal accuracy, comparing favorably in both.South African National Roads Agency Limited (SANRAL) and South African National Research Foundation (NRF).http://www.journals.elsevier.com/procedia-social-and-behavioral-scienceshb201

Integrated land use and transportation modelling and planning: A South African journey

Confronted by poverty, income disparities and mounting demands for basic services such as clean water, sanitation and health care, urban planners in developing countries like South Africa, face daunting challenges. This paper explores the role of Integrated land use and transportation modelling in metropolitan planning processes aimed at improving the spatial efficiency of urban form and ensuring that public sector investments in social and economic infrastructure contribute to economic growth and the reduction of persistent poverty and inequality. The value of such models is not in accurately predicting the future but in providing participants in the (often adversarial) planning process with a better understanding of cause and effect between different components of the urban system and in discovering common ground that could lead to compromise. This paper describes how an Urban Simulation Model was developed by adapting one of the leading microsimulation models (UrbanSim) originating from the developed world to South African conditions and how the requirements for microscopic data about the base year of a simulation were satisfied in a sparse data environment by introducing various typologies. A sample of results from three case studies in the cities of Tshwane, Ekurhuleni and Nelson Mandela Bay between 2013 and 2017 are then presented to illustrate how modelling supports the planning process by adding elements of rational analysis and hypothesis testing to the evaluation of proposed policies

Complexities in moving from commodity to vehicular flows.

Paper presented at the 32nd Annual Southern African Transport Conference 8-11 July 2013 "Transport and Sustainable Infrastructure", CSIR International Convention Centre, Pretoria, South Africa.Two main schools of thought exist in the modelling of commercial vehicle movement. Firstly, the top down commodity flow models start at an aggregate level using metrics such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to derive the origin-destination flows of different commodities. The vehicle flows are then inferred using, amongst other things, traffic counts. The downside is that vehicle activity chains are disregarded, and load factors are overly simplified. Secondly, disaggregate activity-based models consider the more detailed movement of the logistic vehicles, but often disregard the commodities being carried. Although disaggregate models are much more accurate for predicting the influence of commercial vehicles on traffic patterns, they offer little help in evaluating the more aggregate economic impact challenges. In this paper we take a valuable step in bridging the gap between the two seemingly divergent schools of thought. Using recent agent-based developments in transport modelling, we demonstrate how different agents can be added to the transport model’s commuter population. Shipper agents are those wanting to convey goods (commodity perspective), and assign the shipments in a market-environment to logistic service providers and, ultimately, Carriers. The latter is injected into the agent-based model as individual commercial vehicles executing the pickups and deliveries that result from typical routeoptimisation initiatives within companies (activity-based perspective).This paper was transferred from the original CD ROM created for this conference. The material was published using Adobe Acrobat 10.1.0 Technology. The original CD ROM was produced by Document Transformation Technologies Postal Address: PO Box 560 Irene 0062 South Africa. Tel.: +27 12 667 2074 Fax: +27 12 667 2766 E-mail: nigel@doctech URL: http://www.doctech.co.zamv201

Modelling an agent-based commercial vehicle transport system : a supply chain perspective

Many state-of-practice commercial vehicle transport models are not representative of actual road transport movements, since they do not integrate supply chain elements. The objective of this research is to model stakeholders in a supply chain as agents in an agent-based commercial vehicle transport model. Furthermore, the objective is to model these agents’ decisions and interactions and to ensure that the model is sensitive to changes in the supply chain. To achieve this, various steps are followed. The literature on commercial vehicle modelling is reviewed and a distinction is made between three perspectives of commercial vehicle transport models: aggregate models; disaggregate, agent- and tour-based models; and behaviour-based models. A base case agent-based commercial vehicle model, that consists of both intra- and inter-provincial commercial vehicles, is developed using a complex network and GPS records. Utilising complex network metrics, supply chain stakeholders are identified and the most important nodes in the network are extracted. One of these important nodes, an organisation in the Fast Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) industry, provides a dataset consisting of the details of distribution data over a 10-month period. This dataset is used in a case study to show how to model stakeholders in a supply chain. More specifically, the Carrier agent is introduced and the Carrier-Receiver interaction is modelled. Demand is generated from the dataset and the Carrier’s reaction to the demand is shown through its tour planning. The effect of different levels of traffic congestion as well as the order policy of customers on the Carrier’s tour planning is evaluated by showing the changes in distance travelled, tonne-kilometers moved, costs incurred, and travel time for different scenarios. The research is of value to both organisations that need to do fleet management and government who is responsible for infrastructure maintenance and development. Organisations can utilise these models to do fleet composition analyses and evaluate the impact of changes to their logistics decision making or the effect of government interventions on their operations. Government can benefit from these models by analysing the effect of infrastructure decision-making on tonne-kilometers moved and the impact on expected travel times.Dissertation (MEng)--University of Pretoria, 2014.tm2015Industrial and Systems EngineeringMEngUnrestricte

An analysis of inter- and intra provincial commercial vehicle activity chains

The objective of this research is to contribute to the body of knowledge on commercial vehicle activity chain characteristics. To achieve this, the state-of-practice in freight modelling as well as contributions to the body of knowledge are reviewed, and opportunities to extend this knowledge are identified. Activity chains are extracted from the GPS logs of 41 711 commercial vehicles which all subscribe to Digicore Fleet Management 's tracking service. The extracted activity chains are analysed to determine whether structural, temporal and spatial differences exist. Inter-provincial traffic, also referred to as through-traffic, which is the focus of this research, is analysed in more detail to assess the impact that they have on the Gauteng road network and traffic congestion. The main findings are that the activity chain characteristics of through- and within-traffic are quite similar. They differ, however, quite extensively on different days of the week due to various factors as described in the research. The research is of value to any instance dealing with disaggregate commercial vehicle modelling. It could also be of benefit to, among others, government and businesses using commercial vehicles.Thesis (B Eng. (Industrial and Systems Engineering))--University of Pretoria, 2011

Logistics Augmentation to the Freight-Truck-Pavement Interaction Pilot Study: Final Report

The objectives of this logistics augmentation to the Freight-Truck-Pavement interaction pilot study are: (1) to provide a basic understanding to Caltrans of private-sector decision making in road-freight transportation; (2) to identify and describe the comprehensive set of interactions between the efficiency and efficacy of road-freight transportation and the capacity, performance and regulation of road infrastructure in the state and recommend which of these interactions warrant more in-depth assessment on a statewide scale to quantify the overall economic and efficiency impact road infrastructure decisions have on the economy of California; and (3) to illustrate the value of direct interactions and consultations with private companies in exploring private sector decision making and the interdependence of these decisions on public sector actions. Conclusions: By using desktop studies, qualitative analysis, and case studies, this study has shown that road infrastructure and regulation, as managed by Caltrans, have a marked impact on supply chain operations and strategies. Given the critical role that supply chains play in the economic well-being of and quality of life in California and the dependence of these supply chains on road infrastructure and regulation, it is imperative that the public sector (Caltrans) and the private sector engage in the planning and construction of road infrastructure as well in the drafting and implementation of policy.This pilot study has shown that road infrastructure and regulations have a direct effect on supply chain vulnerability, and that design and private companies need to consider these elements in their decision making. Recommendations: Recognize that supply chain vulnerability and design are different for each economic goods movement-dependent sector and therefore a blanket approach to the treatment of sectors will not suffice, and In order for this study to be comprehensive enough to form part of Caltrans’ routine decision making regarding road infrastructure and regulation, expand the study’s scope to cover all goods movement-dependent sectors and deepen the study by conducting representative case studies of each sector