Modeling Spatial Sustainability: Spatial Welfare Economics versus Ecological Footprint

A spatial welfare framework for the analysis of the spatial dimensions of sustainability is developed. It incorporates agglomeration effects, interregional trade, negative environmental externalities and various land use categories. The model is used to compare rankings of spatial configurations according to evaluations based on social welfare and ecological footprint indicators. Five spatial configurations are considered for this purpose. The exercise is operationalized with the help of a two-region model of the economy that is in line with the ‘new economic geography’. Various (counter) examples show that the footprint method is not consistent with an approach aimed at maximum social welfare.Agglomeration effects, Trade advantages, Negative externalities, Population density, Spatial configuration, Transport

Fracture liaison programs

In view of the high imminent risk of having subsequent fractures after a fracture, early evaluation and treatment decisions to prevent subsequent fractures are advocated. After a hip fracture, the fracture liaison service (FLS) and orthogeriatric care are considered the most appropriate organisational approaches for secondary fracture prevention following a recent fracture.Their introduction and implementation have been shown to increase evaluation and treatment of patients at high risk for subsequent fracture. Of real-world cohort studies, most, but not all studies, indicate a lower incidence of fracture and longer survival after treatment with nitrogen-containing bisphosphonates. (C) 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.</p

The Association of Oral Bisphosphonate Use With Mortality Risk Following a Major Osteoporotic Fracture in the United Kingdom:Population-Based Cohort Study

OBJECTIVES: Bisphosphonates (BPs) might have extra benefits in reducing mortality because of their anti-atherosclerotic effects, but studies reported conflicting results. We investigated the association between oral BP use and mortality risk following a major osteoporotic fracture (MOF) in the United Kingdom. DESIGN: This was a population-based cohort study. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: In total, 163,273 adults aged 50 years and older with an MOF between 2000 and 2018 from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink in the United Kingdom. METHODS: Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate the risk of all-cause mortality in current (0‒6 months), recent (7‒12 months), and past (>1 year) exposures to oral BPs after nonhip MOF and hip fracture. In addition, stratification by sex, BP type, and duration of follow-up was performed. RESULTS: Compared with never users of oral BPs, current BP use was associated with a 7% higher all-cause mortality risk after nonhip MOF, whereas a 28% lower all-cause mortality risk was observed after hip fracture. Past BP exposure was associated with a 14% and 42% lower risk after nonhip MOF and hip fracture, respectively. When considering only the first 5 years of follow-up, mortality risk associated with current BP use was significantly lower for both fracture groups, and the greatest reduction in mortality risk was observed within the first year. Women had slightly lower risk compared with men. CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS: We found a slight increased risk of all-cause mortality with current BP exposure after a nonhip MOF; however, a protective effect was observed following a hip fracture. Both the timing and the effect size of an association based on the anti-atherosclerotic hypothesis of BPs are not supported by our results. The decreasing trend of the mortality risk with shorter durations of follow-up suggests that the observed association is likely due to unknown distortion or unknown pleiotropic properties of BPs

Reduced mortality and subsequent fracture risk associated with oral bisphosphonate recommendation in a fracture liaison service setting: A prospective cohort study

Objective: Osteoporotic fragility fractures, that are common in men and women, signal increased risk of future fractures and of premature mortality. Less than one-third of postmenopausal women and fewer men are prescribed active treatments to reduce fracture risk. Therefore, in this study the association of oral bisphosphonate recommendation with subsequent fracture and mortality over eight years in a fracture liaison service setting was analysed. Materials and methods: In this prospective cohort study, 5011 men and women aged \u3e50 years, who sustained a clinical fracture, accepted the invitation to attend the fracture liaison service of the West Glasgow health service between 1999 and 2007. These patients were fully assessed and all were recommended calcium and vitamin D. Based on pre-defined fracture risk criteria, 2534 (50.7%) patients were additionally also recommended oral bisphosphonates. Mortality and subsequent fracture risk were the pre-defined outcomes analysed using Cox proportional hazard models. Results: Those recommended bisphosphonates were more often female (82.9 vs. 72.4%), were older (73.4 vs. 64.4 years), had lower bone mineral density T-score (-3.1 vs. -1.5) and more had sustained hip fractures (21.7 vs. 6.2%; p \u3c 0.001). After adjustments, patients recommended bisphosphonates had lower subsequent fracture risk (Hazard Ratio (HR): 0.60; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.49±0.73) and lower mortality risk (HR: 0.79, 95%CI: 0.64±0.97). Conclusion: Of the patients, who are fully assessed after a fracture at the fracture liaison service, those with higher fracture risk and a recommendation for bisphosphonates had worse baseline characteristics. However, after adjusting for these differences, those recommended bisphosphonate treatment had a substantially lower risk for subsequent fragility fracture and lower risk for mortality. These community-based data indicate the adverse public health outcomes and mortality impacts of the current low treatment levels post fracture could be improved by bisphosphonate recommendation for both subsequent fracture and mortality

The role of the combination of bone and fall related risk factors on short-term subsequent fracture risk and mortality

BACKGROUND: We analysed whether a combination of bone- and fall-related risk factors (RFs) in addition to a recent non-vertebral fracture (NVF) contributed to subsequent NVF risk and mortality during 2-years in patients who were offered fall and fracture prevention according to Dutch fracture- and fall-prevention guidelines. METHODS: 834 consecutive patients aged ≥50 years with a recent NVF who were included. We compared subgroups of patients according to the presence of bone RFs and/or fall RFs (group 1: only bone RFs; group 2: combination of bone and fall RFs; group 3: only fall RFs; group 4: no additional RFs). Univariable and multivariable Cox regression analyses were performed adjusted for age, sex and baseline fracture location (major or minor). RESULTS: 57 (6.8%) had a subsequent NVF and 29 (3.5%) died within 2-years. Univariable Cox regression analysis showed that patients with the combination of bone and fall RFs had a 99% higher risk in subsequent fracture risk compared to all others (Hazard Ratio (HR) 1.99; 95% Confidence Interval (CI) 1.18-3.36) Multivariable analyses this was borderline not significant (HR 1.70; 95% CI: 0.99-2.93). No significant differences in mortality were found between the groups. CONCLUSION: Evaluation of fall RFs contributes to identifying patients with bone RFs at highest immediate risk of subsequent NVF in spite of guideline-based treatment. It should be further studied whether earlier and immediate prevention following a NVF can decrease fracture risk in patients with a combination of bone and fall RFs

Reduced bone loss is associated with reduced mortality risk in subjects exposed to nitrogen bisphosphonates: A mediation analysis

Bisphosphonates, potent anti-resorptive agents, have been found to be associated with mortality reduction. Accelerated bone loss is, in itself, an independent predictor of mortality risk, but the relationship between bisphosphonates, bone loss, and mortality is unknown. This study aimed to determine whether the association between bisphosphonates and mortality is mediated by a reduction in the rate of bone loss. Participants from the population‐based Canadian Multicentre Osteoporosis Study were followed prospectively between1996 and 2011. Comorbidities and lifestyle factors were collected at baseline and bone mineral density (BMD) at baseline and at years 3 (for those aged 40 to 60 years), 5, and 10. Rate of bone loss was calculated using linear regression. Information on medication use was obtained yearly. Bisphosphonate users grouped into nitrogen bisphosphonates (nBP; alendronate or risedronate) and etidronate and non‐users (NoRx) were matched by propensity score, including all baseline factors as well as time of treatment. Cox’s proportional hazards models, unadjusted and adjusted for annual rate of bone loss, were used to determine the association between nBP and etidronate versus NoRx. For the treatment groups with significant mortality risk reduction, the percent of mortality reduction mediated by a reduction in the rate of bone loss was estimated using a causal mediation analysis. There were 271 pairs of nBP and matched NoRx and 327 pairs of etidronate and matched NoRx. nBP but not etidronate use was associated with significant mortality risk reduction (hazard ratios [HR]=0.61 [95% confidenceinterval0.39–0.96]and1.35[95%CI0.86–2.11] for nBP and etidronate, respectively). Rapid bone loss was associated with more than2‐fold increased mortality risk compared with no loss. Mediation analysis indicated that39% (95%CI7%–84%) of the nBP association with mortality was related to a reduction in the rate of bone loss. This finding provides an insight into the mechanism of the relationship between nBP and survival benefit in osteoporotic patients

A Risk Assessment Tool for Predicting Fragility Fractures and Mortality in the Elderly

Existing fracture risk assessment tools are not designed to predict fracture-associated consequences, possibly contributing to the current undermanagement of fragility fractures worldwide. We aimed to develop a risk assessment tool for predicting the conceptual risk of fragility fractures and its consequences. The study involved 8965 people aged >= 60 years from the Dubbo Osteoporosis Epidemiology Study and the Canadian Multicentre Osteoporosis Study. Incident fracture was identified from X-ray reports and questionnaires, and death was ascertained though contact with a family member or obituary review. We used a multistate model to quantify the effects of the predictors on the transition risks to an initial and subsequent incident fracture and mortality, accounting for their complex interrelationships, confounding effects, and death as a competing risk. There were 2364 initial fractures, 755 subsequent fractures, and 3300 deaths during a median follow-up of 13 years (interquartile range [IQR] 7-15). The prediction model included sex, age, bone mineral density, history of falls within 12 previous months, prior fracture after the age of 50 years, cardiovascular diseases, diabetes mellitus, chronic pulmonary diseases, hypertension, and cancer. The model accurately predicted fragility fractures up to 11 years of follow-up and post-fracture mortality up to 9 years, ranging from 7 years after hip fractures to 15 years after non-hip fractures. For example, a 70-year-old woman with aT-score of -1.5 and without other risk factors would have 10% chance of sustaining a fracture and an 8% risk of dying in 5 years. However, after an initial fracture, her risk of sustaining another fracture or dying doubles to 33%, ranging from 26% after a distal to 42% post hip fracture. A robust statistical technique was used to develop a prediction model for individualization of progression to fracture and its consequences, facilitating informed decision making about risk and thus treatment for individuals with different risk profiles. (c) 2020 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research