Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness in the Elderly Based on Administrative Databases: Change in Immunization Habit as a Marker for Bias

Administrative databases provide efficient methods to estimate influenza vaccine effectiveness (IVE) against severe outcomes in the elderly but are prone to intractable bias. This study returns to one of the linked population databases by which IVE against hospitalization and death in the elderly was first assessed. We explore IVE across six more recent influenza seasons, including periods before, during, and after peak activity to identify potential markers for bias.Acute respiratory hospitalization and all-cause mortality were compared between immunized/non-immunized community-dwelling seniors ≥65 years through administrative databases in Manitoba, Canada between 2000-01 and 2005-06. IVE was compared during pre-season/influenza/post-season periods through logistic regression with multivariable adjustment (age/sex/income/residence/prior influenza or pneumococcal immunization/medical visits/comorbidity), stratification based on prior influenza immunization history, and propensity scores. Analysis during pre-season periods assessed baseline differences between immunized and unimmunized groups. The study population included ∼140,000 seniors, of whom 50-60% were immunized annually. Adjustment for key covariates and use of propensity scores consistently increased IVE. Estimates were paradoxically higher pre-season and for all-cause mortality vs. acute respiratory hospitalization. Stratified analysis showed that those twice consecutively and currently immunized were always at significantly lower hospitalization/mortality risk with odds ratios (OR) of 0.60 [95%CI0.48-0.75] and 0.58 [0.53-0.64] pre-season and 0.77 [0.69-0.86] and 0.71 [0.66-0.77] during influenza circulation, relative to the consistently unimmunized. Conversely, those forgoing immunization when twice previously immunized were always at significantly higher hospitalization/mortality risk with OR of 1.41 [1.14-1.73] and 2.45 [2.21-2.72] pre-season and 1.21 [1.03-1.43] and 1.78 [1.61-1.96] during influenza circulation.The most pronounced IVE estimates were paradoxically observed pre-season, indicating bias tending to over-estimate vaccine protection. Change in immunization habit from that of the prior two years may be a marker for this bias in administrative data sets; however, no analytic technique explored could adjust for its influence. Improved methods to achieve valid interpretation of protection in the elderly are needed

Evaluation of a New Chromogenic Agar Medium for Detection of Shiga Toxin-Producing Escherichia coli (STEC) and Relative Prevalences of O157 and Non-O157 STEC in Manitoba, Canada

This study assesses the detection performance of CHROMagar STEC medium relative to a reference cytotoxin assay and describes the current relative prevalence of O157 and non-O157 Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC) serotypes within the province of Manitoba, Canada. Over a 10-month period, 205 nonfrozen routine stool submissions to Cadham Provincial Laboratory (CPL) were used to assess the performance of CHROMagar STEC. Of the 205 stools, 14 were identified as true positives by a cytotoxin assay, with resultant CHROMagar STEC sensitivity, specificity, and positive predictive and negative predictive values of 85.7%, 95.8%, 60.0%, and 98.9%, respectively. Using a separate panel of 111 STEC strains, CHROMagar STEC was shown to support the growth of 96 (86.5%) isolates. To assess relative prevalence, attempts were made to isolate by any means all STEC strains identified at CPL over a 17-month period. Of 49 isolates (representing 86.0% of all STEC infections detected), only 28.6% were O157 STEC strains. Of the 35 non-O157 STEC strains, 29 were subjected to further molecular analysis. In contrast to earlier results from our area, carriage of stx2 appears to have increased. Overall, although CHROMagar STEC is not recommended as a primary screen, our results indicate that it is an effective supplemental medium for the isolation of probable STEC strains. Increased isolation of these serotypes is warranted to better understand their prevalence, clinical characteristics, and epidemiology and aid in the development or enhancement of food safety control programs targeting all STEC serotypes

Retrospective TREC testing of newborns with Severe Combined Immunodeficiency and other primary immunodeficiency diseases

In Manitoba, Canada, the overall incidence of Severe Combined Immunodeficiency (SCID) is three-fold higher than the national average, with SCID overrepresented in two population groups: Mennonites and First Nations of Northern Cree ancestries. T-cell receptor excision circle (TREC) assay is being used increasingly for neonatal screening for SCID in North America. However, the majority of SCID patients in Manitoba are T-cell-positive. Therefore it is likely that the TREC assay will not identify these infants. The goal of this study was to blindly and retrospectively perform TREC analysis in confirmed SCID patients using archived Guthrie cards. Thirteen SCID patients were tested: 5 T-negative SCID (3 with adenosine deaminase deficiency, 1 with CD3δ deficiency, and 1 unclassified) and 8 T-positive SCID (5 with zeta chain-associated protein kinase (ZAP70) deficiency and 3 with inhibitor of kappa light polypeptide gene enhancer in B-cells, kinase beta (IKKβ) deficiency). As a non-SCID patient group, 5 Primary Immunodeficiency Disease (PID) patients were studied: 1 T-negative PID (cartilage-hair hypoplasia) and 4 T-positive PID (2 common immune deficiency (CID), 1 Wiskott–Aldrich syndrome, and 1 X-linked lymphoproliferative disease). Both patient groups required hematopoietic stem cell transplantation. In addition, randomly-selected de-identified controls (n = 982) were tested. Results: all T-negative SCID and PID had zero TRECs. Low-TRECs were identified in 2 ZAP70 siblings, 1 CID patient as well as 5 preterm, 1 twin, and 4 de-identified controls. Conclusions: TREC method will identify T-negative SCID and T-negative PID. To identify other SCID babies, newborn screening in Manitoba must include supplemental targeted screening for ethnic-specific mutations

Polymorphisms of the Fimbria fim3 Gene of Bordetella pertussis Strains Isolated in Canada

The fim genes which code for the fimbria protective antigens present in both the inactivated whole-cell and acellular vaccines were analyzed in 86 Canadian Bordetella pertussis isolates. At least one of the novel mutations identified was found to involve a surface epitope that has been mapped by serum antibodies from infected or vaccinated subjects

Whole genome typing of the recently emerged Canadian serogroup W Neisseria meningitidis sequence type 11 clonal complex isolates associated with invasive meningococcal disease

Objectives: This study was performed to analyze the Canadian invasive serogroup W Neisseria meningitidis (MenW) sequence type 11 (ST-11) clonal complex (CC) isolates by whole genome typing and to compare Canadian isolates with similar isolates from elsewhere. Methods: Whole genome typing of 30 MenW ST-11 CC, 20 meningococcal group C (MenC) ST-11 CC, and 31 MenW ST-22 CC isolates was performed on the Bacterial Isolate Genome Sequence database platform. Canadian MenW ST-11 CC isolates were compared with the 2000 MenW Hajj outbreak strain, as well as with MenW ST-11 CC from other countries. Results: Whole genome typing showed that the Canadian MenW ST-11 CC isolates were distinct from the traditional MenW ST-22 CC; they were not capsule-switched contemporary MenC strains that incorporated MenW capsules. While some recent MenW disease cases in Canada were caused by MenW ST-11 CC isolates showing relatedness to the 2000 MenW Hajj strain, many were non-Hajj isolates similar to current MenW ST-11 isolates found globally. Geographical and temporal variations in genotypes and surface protein antigen genes were found among the MenW ST-11 CC isolates. Conclusions: The current MenW ST-11 isolates did not arise by capsule switching from contemporary MenC ST-11 isolates. Both the Hajj-related and non-Hajj MenW ST-11 CC strains were associated with invasive meningococcal disease in Canada. Keywords: Neisseria meningitidis, Invasive meningococcal disease, Whole genome typin

Equations to predict antimicrobial minimum inhibitory concentrations in Neisseria gonorrhoeae using molecular antimicrobial resistance determinants

The emergence of Neisseria gonorrhoeae strains that are resistant to azithromycin and extended-spectrum cephalosporins represents a public health threat, that of untreatable gonorrhea infections. Multivariate regression modeling was used to determine the contributions of molecular antimicrobial resistance determinants to the overall antimicrobial MICs for ceftriaxone, cefixime, azithromycin, tetracycline, ciprofloxacin, and penicillin. A training data set consisting of 1,280 N. gonorrhoeae strains was used to generate regression equations which were then applied to validation data sets of Canadian (n = 1,095) and international (n = 431) strains. The predicted MICs for extended-spectrum cephalosporins (ceftriaxone and cefixime) were fully explained by 5 amino acid substitutions in PenA, A311V, A501P/T/V, N513Y, A517G, and G543S; the presence of a disrupted mtrR promoter; and the PorB G120 and PonA L421P mutations. The correlation of predicted MICs within one doubling dilution to phenotypically determined MICs of the Canadian validation data set was 95.0% for ceftriaxone, 95.6% for cefixime, 91.4% for azithromycin, 98.2% for tetracycline, 90.4% for ciprofloxacin, and 92.3% for penicillin, with an overall sensitivity of 99.9% and specificity of 97.1%. The correlations of predicted MIC values to the phenotypically determined MICs were similar to those from phenotype MIC-only comparison studies. The ability to acquire detailed antimicrobial resistance information directly from molecular data will facilitate the transition to whole-genome sequencing analysis from phenotypic testing and can fill the surveillance gap in an era of increased reliance on nucleic acid assay testing (NAAT) diagnostics to better monitor the dynamics of N. gonorrhoeae

Development of a Population-Based Newborn Screening Method for Severe Combined Immunodeficiency in Manitoba, Canada

The incidence of Severe Combined Immunodeficiency (SCID) in Manitoba, (1/15,000), is at least three to four times higher than the national average and that reported from other jurisdictions. It is overrepresented in two population groups: Mennonites (ZAP70 founder mutation) and First Nations of Northern Cree ancestry (IKBKB founder mutation). We have previously demonstrated that in these two populations the most widely utilized T-cell receptor excision circle (TREC) assay is an ineffective newborn screening test to detect SCID as these patients have normal numbers of mature T-cells. We have developed a semi-automated, closed tube, high resolution DNA melting procedure to simultaneously genotype both of these mutations from the same newborn blood spot DNA extract used for the TREC assay. Parallel analysis of all newborn screening specimens utilizing both TREC analysis and the high-resolution DNA procedure should provide as complete ascertainment as possible of SCID in the Manitoba population

Equations to predict antimicrobial minimum inhibitory concentrations in Neisseria gonorrhoeae using molecular antimicrobial resistance determinants

The emergence of Neisseria gonorrhoeae strains that are resistant to azithromycin and extended-spectrum cephalosporins represents a public health threat, that of untreatable gonorrhea infections. Multivariate regression modeling was used to determine the contributions of molecular antimicrobial resistance determinants to the overall antimicrobial MICs for ceftriaxone, cefixime, azithromycin, tetracycline, ciprofloxacin, and penicillin. A training data set consisting of 1,280 N. gonorrhoeae strains was used to generate regression equations which were then applied to validation data sets of Canadian (n = 1,095) and international (n = 431) strains. The predicted MICs for extended-spectrum cephalosporins (ceftriaxone and cefixime) were fully explained by 5 amino acid substitutions in PenA, A311V, A501P/T/V, N513Y, A517G, and G543S; the presence of a disrupted mtrR promoter; and the PorB G120 and PonA L421P mutations. The correlation of predicted MICs within one doubling dilution to phenotypically determined MICs of the Canadian validation data set was 95.0% for ceftriaxone, 95.6% for cefixime, 91.4% for azithromycin, 98.2% for tetracycline, 90.4% for ciprofloxacin, and 92.3% for penicillin, with an overall sensitivity of 99.9% and specificity of 97.1%. The correlations of predicted MIC values to the phenotypically determined MICs were similar to those from phenotype MIC-only comparison studies. The ability to acquire detailed antimicrobial resistance information directly from molecular data will facilitate the transition to whole-genome sequencing analysis from phenotypic testing and can fill the surveillance gap in an era of increased reliance on nucleic acid assay testing (NAAT) diagnostics to better monitor the dynamics of N. gonorrhoeae