Pattern-mixture sensitivity analysis in longitudinal trials with drop-out

The occurrence of missing data due to protocol deviations is inevitable in clinical trials. When missing data exist, analyses rely on assumptions about the behaviour of the individuals after dropping out. As a result, sensitivity analysis, which is now advocated by regulatory bodies, should be performed to explore the robustness of the inference to those assumptions. These assumptions should be relevant to the estimand of the study and be practically accessible by all parties. The aim of this document is twofold: to assess the statistical validity of a new method for sensitivity analysis, and apply this method to a published Alzheimer’s study. At the beginning of the thesis, a description of the Alzheimer’s study and issues with missing data encountered therein, take place. This study was mainly set up to investigate the effect rosiglitazone, as an adjunct therapy in Alzheimer’s patients. Two different doses of the drug were compared to placebo. The study suffered from a moderate degree of missing data in each treatment arm. The thesis proceeds with a critique on the per-protocol and intention-to-treat estimands, and revisits their meaning when missing data occur. Two new estimands are introduced, which are particularly amenable to studies with missing data. They are termed de-jure and de-facto. Following that, the main methods for dealing with missing data are introduced, with a particular emphasis on multiple imputation, and how it can easily incorporate missing not at random (MNAR) analyses. A thorough presentation of the new methodology is given. This is built around a set of assumptions, that reflect possible distributional behaviours of the subjects after protocol deviation. The assumptions are Randomised-treatment Missing at Random (MAR), Jump to Reference, Last Mean Carried Forward, Copy Increments in Reference, and Copy Reference. Estimation and inference is achieved via multiple imputation, and it is shown how the predictive distribution of the imputation model can be constructed from parameters borrowed from an MAR model and manipulated in a pattern-mixture model approach, to obtain the five assumptions for the 4 unobserved component of groups of individuals. A number of simulations whose aim is to explore the statistical properties of the new method, are carried out. The simulated datasets, which are based on the parameters from the Alzheimer’s study, focus on the estimator bias, the size and power of the methods, the bias of the variance estimator, and coverage. The results obtained from the simulations show the method has sensible properties; no bias for the estimator was detectable and the sizes and power of the methods agreed closely with their theoretical equivalents. The main result however, pertains to Rubin’s variance estimator, which proves to appropriately reflect the loss of information from missing data. It is therefore argued, it is the right estimator to use in this setting. The results from the application of the proposed method on the Alzheimer’s dataset are presented in tables. Inferences from the sensitivity analysis assumptions were consistent with those from the original MAR analyses. The comparison between high dose rosiglitazone and placebo did not show any evidence in favour of the treatment under any sensitivity assumption. Some evidence of treatment difference existed when the low dose treatment was compared to placebo. This finding though, should be interpreted with caution, as the differences were obtained from analyses not subjected to the rigorous inferential process that was used in the Harringtons study. It was further argued, this finding might have been due to chance, and it was not replicated in a different study

Education and social care predictors of offending trajectories: A UK administrative data linkage study

Objectives The age-crime curve indicates that criminal behaviour peaks in adolescence and decreases in adulthood, but longitudinal studies suggest that this curve conceals distinct patterns of (re)-offending or trajectories. Some trajectories (e.g., life course persistent offenders) are reported to have distinct risk factors and more negative outcomes than others (e.g., adolescent limited offenders). Methods The current study had two main objectives: (1) To use UK administrative crime data to identify trajectories of (re)-offending; and (2) To prospectively identify (re)-offending trajectories using longitudinal administrative education and social care data. This project uses linked UK administrative data containing the anonymised education and social care records for individuals born between September 1985 and August 1999, which have been linked to later official crime records up to the end of 2017. To identify offending trajectories, we used information on offence type, age of first conviction/caution, age of last recorded conviction/caution and offending history at three age points (Juvenile: 10-17 years; Young adult: 18-20 years; Adult: 21-32 years). Results Latent Class Analyses with and without ‘Gender’ and ‘Ever served a custodial sentence’ as covariates was conducted to identify trajectories of (re)-offending. We are currently developing statistical models to see if we can use prospective longitudinal education and social care factors to discriminate between these trajectories. In my talk, I will share findings on the offending trajectories identified and present some early results on the key education and social care drivers of the offending trajectories. Conclusion Findings from this study has the potential to provide deeper insights into how these education and social care factors might affect (re)-offending patterns. This could inform education, social care and criminal justice system responses to offending behaviours which seek to reduce offending and its associated social and economic costs

Update on Transplacental Transfer of IgG Subclasses: Impact of Maternal and Fetal Factors.

Transplacental antibody transfer from mother to fetus provides protection from infection in the first weeks of life, and the four different subclasses of IgG (IgG1, IgG2, IgG3, and IgG4) have diverse roles in protection against infection. In this study, we evaluated concentrations and transplacental transfer ratios of the IgG subclasses in a healthy UK-based cohort of mother-cord pairs, and investigated associations with maternal, obstetric, and fetal factors. In agreement with previous studies, we found a strong association between maternal and cord IgG for all subclasses. We report a transfer efficiency hierarchy of IgG1>IgG3>IgG4=IgG2 in our study population, and our review of the literature demonstrates that there is no consensus in the hierarchy of subclass transfer, despite the commonly made statement that the order is IgG1>IgG4>IgG3>IgG2. We report additional data regarding negative associations between elevated maternal IgG concentrations and maternal/cord transfer ratios, finding an effect on IgG1, IgG2, and IgG3 subclasses. Levels of IgG subclasses were the same between venous and arterial blood samples from the umbilical cord, but there was a significantly higher level of total IgG in arterial blood. We found no correlation between placental FcRn protein levels and IgG transfer in our cohort, suggesting that IgG is the main determinant of observed differences in transplacental transfer ratios at term. Neonatal IgG1 and IgG4 levels were increased with later gestation at delivery, independent of any increase in transplacental transfer, indicating that the benefit of later gestation is through accumulation of these subclasses in the fetus. Neonatal IgG2 levels and transfer ratios were reduced in rhesus-negative pregnancies, suggesting that administered anti-D antibodies may compete for transplacental transfer of this subclass. Maternal influenza vaccination resulted in elevated maternal and neonatal levels of IgG4, whereas maternal Tdap vaccination had no impact on neonatal levels of the subclasses, nor transfer. However, within Tdap vaccinated pregnancies, later gestation at Tdap vaccination was associated with higher transplacental transfer. Our study provides information regarding levels and transfer of IgG subclasses in healthy term pregnancies and demonstrates the importance of recording detailed clinical information in studies of antibody transfer, including parity, ethnicity, and timing of maternal vaccine delivery

Standardizing test scores for a target population: The LMS method illustrated using language measures from the SCALES project

Background: Centile curves and standard scores are common in epidemiological research. However, standardised norms and centile growth curves for language disorder that reflect the entire UK local school population do not exist. Methods: Scores on six language indices assessing receptive and expressive functioning of children were obtained from the SCALES population survey. Monolingual English speaking participants were aged between five and nine years. Children who attended special schools at study intake, or who were learning English as an additional language were excluded. We constructed language norms using the LMS method of standardisation which allows for skewed measurements. We made use of probability weights that were produced from a two-step logistic model. Distributions of estimated standard scores from an intensively assessed subpopulation and from the full population were contrasted to demonstrate the role of weights. Results: Non-overlapping centile curves and standardised scores at each age were obtained for the six language indices. The use of weights was essential at retrieving the target distribution of the scores. An online calculator that estimates standardised scores for the measures was constructed and made freely available. Conclusions: The findings highlight the usefulness and flexibility of the LMS method at dealing with the standardisation of linguistic and educational measures that are sufficiently continuous. The paper adds to the existing literature by providing population norms for a number of language tests that were calculated from the same group of individuals

User-centered Development of STOP (Successful Treatment for Paranoia)::Material Development and Usability Testing for a Digital Therapeutic for Paranoia

Background: Paranoia is a highly debilitating mental health condition. One novel intervention for paranoia is cognitive bias modification for paranoia (CBM-pa). CBM-pa comes from a class of interventions that focus on manipulating interpretation bias. Here, we aimed to develop and evaluate new therapy content for CBM-pa for later use in a self-administered digital therapeutic for paranoia called STOP ("Successful Treatment of Paranoia"). Objective: This study aimed to (1) take a user-centered approach with input from living experts, clinicians, and academics to create and evaluate paranoia-relevant item content to be used in STOP and (2) engage with living experts and the design team from a digital health care solutions company to cocreate and pilot-test the STOP mobile app prototype. Methods: We invited 18 people with living or lived experiences of paranoia to create text exemplars of personal, everyday emotionally ambiguous scenarios that could provoke paranoid thoughts. Researchers then adapted 240 suitable exemplars into corresponding intervention items in the format commonly used for CBM training and created 240 control items for the purpose of testing STOP. Each item included newly developed, visually enriching graphics content to increase the engagement and realism of the basic text scenarios. All items were then evaluated for their paranoia severity and readability by living experts (n=8) and clinicians (n=7) and for their item length by the research team. Items were evenly distributed into six 40-item sessions based on these evaluations. Finalized items were presented in the STOP mobile app, which was co-designed with a digital health care solutions company, living or lived experts, and the academic team; user acceptance was evaluated across 2 pilot tests involving living or lived experts. Results: All materials reached predefined acceptable thresholds on all rating criteria: paranoia severity (intervention items: ≥1; control items: ≤1, readability: ≥3, and length of the scenarios), and there was no systematic difference between the intervention and control group materials overall or between individual sessions within each group. For item graphics, we also found no systematic differences in users' ratings of complexity (P=.68), attractiveness (P=.15), and interest (P=.14) between intervention and control group materials. User acceptance testing of the mobile app found that it is easy to use and navigate, interactive, and helpful. Conclusions: Material development for any new digital therapeutic requires an iterative and rigorous process of testing involving multiple contributing groups. Appropriate user-centered development can create user-friendly mobile health apps, which may improve face validity and have a greater chance of being engaging and acceptable to the target end users.</p

Parent-mediated social communication therapy for young children with autism (PACT):long-term follow-up of a randomised controlled trial

SummaryBackgroundIt is not known whether early intervention can improve long-term autism symptom outcomes. We aimed to follow-up the Preschool Autism Communication Trial (PACT), to investigate whether the PACT intervention had a long-term effect on autism symptoms and continued effects on parent and child social interaction.MethodsPACT was a randomised controlled trial of a parent-mediated social communication intervention for children aged 2–4 years with core autism. Follow-up ascertainment was done at three specialised clinical services centres in the UK (London, Manchester, and Newcastle) at a median of 5·75 years (IQR 5·42–5·92) from the original trial endpoint. The main blinded outcomes were the comparative severity score (CSS) from the Autism Diagnostic Observation Schedule (ADOS), the Dyadic Communication Assessment Measure (DCMA) of the proportion of child initiatiations when interacting with the parent, and an expressive-receptive language composite. All analyses followed the intention-to-treat principle. PACT is registered with the ISRCTN registry, number ISRCTN58133827.Findings121 (80%) of the 152 trial participants (59 [77%] of 77 assigned to PACT intervention vs 62 [83%] of 75 assigned to treatment as usual) were traced and consented to be assessed between July, 2013, and September, 2014. Mean age at follow-up was 10·5 years (SD 0·8). Group difference in favour of the PACT intervention based on ADOS CSS of log-odds effect size (ES) was 0·64 (95% CI 0·07 to 1·20) at treatment endpoint and ES 0·70 (95% CI −0·05 to 1·47) at follow-up, giving an overall reduction in symptom severity over the course of the whole trial and follow-up period (ES 0·55, 95% CI 0·14 to 0·91, p=0·004). Group difference in DCMA child initiations at follow-up showed a Cohen's d ES of 0·29 (95% CI −0.02 to 0.57) and was significant over the course of the study (ES 0·33, 95% CI 0·11 to 0·57, p=0·004). There were no group differences in the language composite at follow-up (ES 0·15, 95% CI −0·23 to 0·53).InterpretationThe results are the first to show long-term symptom reduction after a randomised controlled trial of early intervention in autism spectrum disorder. They support the clinical value of the PACT intervention and have implications for developmental theory.FundingMedical Research Council

INTERSTAARS: Attention training for infants with elevated likelihood of developing ADHD: A proof-of-concept randomised controlled trial.

Funder: MQ: Transforming Mental Health (MQ); Grant(s): MQ14PP83Attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is first diagnosed during middle childhood, when patterns of difficulty are often established. Pre-emptive approaches that strengthen developing cognitive systems could offer an alternative to post-diagnostic interventions. This proof-of-concept randomised controlled trial (RCT) tested whether computerised gaze-based attention training is feasible and improves attention in infants liable to develop ADHD. Forty-three 9- to 16-month-old infants with a first-degree relative with ADHD were recruited (11/2015-11/2018) at two UK sites and randomised with minimisation by site and sex to receive 9 weekly sessions of either (a) gaze-contingent attention training (intervention; n = 20); or (b) infant-friendly passive viewing of videos (control, n = 23). Sessions were delivered at home with blinded outcome assessments. The primary outcome was a composite of attention measures jointly analysed via a multivariate ANCOVA with a combined effect size (ES) from coefficients at baseline, midpoint and endpoint (Registration: ISRCTN37683928 ). Uptake and compliance was good but intention-to-treat analysis showed no significant differences between 20 intervention and 23 control infants on primary (ES -0.4, 95% CI -0.9 to 0.2; Complier-Average-Causal Effect ES -0.6, 95% CI -1.6 to 0.5) or secondary outcomes (behavioural attention). There were no adverse effects on sleep but a small increase in post-intervention session fussiness. Although feasible, there was no support for short-term effects of gaze-based attention training on attention skills in early ADHD. Longer-term outcomes remain to be assessed. The study highlights challenges and opportunities for pre-emptive intervention approaches to the management of ADHD

INTERSTAARS: Attention training for infants with elevated likelihood of developing ADHD: A proof-of-concept randomised controlled trial.

Funder: MQ: Transforming Mental Health (MQ); Grant(s): MQ14PP83Attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is first diagnosed during middle childhood, when patterns of difficulty are often established. Pre-emptive approaches that strengthen developing cognitive systems could offer an alternative to post-diagnostic interventions. This proof-of-concept randomised controlled trial (RCT) tested whether computerised gaze-based attention training is feasible and improves attention in infants liable to develop ADHD. Forty-three 9- to 16-month-old infants with a first-degree relative with ADHD were recruited (11/2015-11/2018) at two UK sites and randomised with minimisation by site and sex to receive 9 weekly sessions of either (a) gaze-contingent attention training (intervention; n = 20); or (b) infant-friendly passive viewing of videos (control, n = 23). Sessions were delivered at home with blinded outcome assessments. The primary outcome was a composite of attention measures jointly analysed via a multivariate ANCOVA with a combined effect size (ES) from coefficients at baseline, midpoint and endpoint (Registration: ISRCTN37683928 ). Uptake and compliance was good but intention-to-treat analysis showed no significant differences between 20 intervention and 23 control infants on primary (ES -0.4, 95% CI -0.9 to 0.2; Complier-Average-Causal Effect ES -0.6, 95% CI -1.6 to 0.5) or secondary outcomes (behavioural attention). There were no adverse effects on sleep but a small increase in post-intervention session fussiness. Although feasible, there was no support for short-term effects of gaze-based attention training on attention skills in early ADHD. Longer-term outcomes remain to be assessed. The study highlights challenges and opportunities for pre-emptive intervention approaches to the management of ADHD