Assessing the clinical severity of the Omicron variant in the Western Cape Province, South Africa, using the diagnostic PCR proxy marker of RdRp target delay to distinguish between Omicron and Delta infections - a survival analysis

BACKGROUND: The extent to which the reduced risk of severe disease seen with SARS-CoV-2 Omicron is due to a decrease in variant virulence, or higher levels of population immunity, is currently not clear. METHODS: RdRp target delay (RTD) in the Seegene AllplexTM 2019-nCoV PCR assay is a proxy marker for the Delta variant. The absence of this proxy marker in the transition period was used to identify suspected Omicron infections. Cox regression was performed for the outcome of hospital admission in those who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 on the Seegene AllplexTM assay from 1 November to 14 December 2021 in the Western Cape Province, South Africa, public sector. Vaccination status and prior diagnosed infection, were adjusted for. RESULTS: 150 cases with RTD and 1486 cases without RTD were included. Cases without RTD had a lower hazard of admission (adjusted Hazard Ratio [aHR] of 0.56, 95%CI 0.34-0.91). Complete vaccination was protective of admission with an aHR of 0.45 (95%CI 0.26-0.77). CONCLUSION: Omicron has resulted in a lower risk of hospital admission, compared to contemporaneous Delta infection, when using the proxy marker of RTD. Under-ascertainment of reinfections with an immune escape variant remains a challenge to accurately assessing variant virulence

SHIV-162P3 Infection of Rhesus Macaques Given Maraviroc Gel Vaginally Does Not Involve Resistant Viruses

Maraviroc (MVC) gels are effective at protecting rhesus macaques from vaginal SHIV transmission, but breakthrough infections can occur. To determine the effects of a vaginal MVC gel on infecting SHIV populations in a macaque model, we analyzed plasma samples from three rhesus macaques that received a MVC vaginal gel (day 0) but became infected after high-dose SHIV-162P3 vaginal challenge. Two infected macaques that received a placebo gel served as controls. The infecting SHIV-162P3 stock had an overall mean genetic distance of 0.294±0.027%; limited entropy changes were noted across the envelope (gp160). No envelope mutations were observed consistently in viruses isolated from infected macaques at days 14–21, the time of first detectable viremia, nor selected at later time points, days 42–70. No statistically significant differences in MVC susceptibilities were observed between the SHIV inoculum (50% inhibitory concentration [IC50] 1.87 nM) and virus isolated from the three MVC-treated macaques (MVC IC50 1.18 nM, 1.69 nM, and 1.53 nM, respectively). Highlighter plot analyses suggested that infection was established in each MVC-treated animal by one founder virus genotype. The expected Poisson distribution of pairwise Hamming Distance frequency counts was observed and a phylogenetic analysis did not identify infections with distinct lineages from the challenge stock. These data suggest that breakthrough infections most likely result from incomplete viral inhibition and not the selection of MVC-resistant variants

Higher mortality associated with the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant in the Western Cape, South Africa, using RdRp target delay as a proxy: a cross-sectional study.

Background: The SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant (B.1.617.2) has been associated with more severe disease, particularly when compared to the Alpha variant. Most of this data, however, is from high income countries and less is understood about the variant’s disease severity in other settings, particularly in an African context, and when compared to the Beta variant. Methods: A novel proxy marker, RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (RdRp) target delay in the Seegene AllplexTM 2019-nCoV (polymerase chain reaction) PCR assay, was used to identify suspected Delta variant infection in routine laboratory data. All cases diagnosed on this assay in the public sector in the Western Cape, South Africa, from 1 April to 31 July 2021, were included in the dataset provided by the Western Cape Provincial Health Data Centre (PHDC). The PHDC collates information on all COVID-19 related laboratory tests, hospital admissions and deaths for the province. Odds ratios for the association between the proxy marker and death were calculated, adjusted for prior diagnosed infection and vaccination status. Results: A total of 11,355 cases with 700 deaths were included in this study. RdRp target delay (suspected Delta variant) was associated with higher mortality (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.45; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.13-1.86), compared to presumptive Beta infection. Prior diagnosed infection during the previous COVID-19 wave, which was driven by the Beta variant, was protective (aOR 0.32; 95%CI: 0.11-0.92) as was vaccination (aOR [95%CI] 0.15 [0.03-0.62] for complete vaccination [≥28 days post a single dose of Ad26.COV2.S or ≥14 days post second BNT162b2 dose]). Conclusion: RdRp target delay, a proxy for infection with the Delta variant, is associated with an increased risk of mortality amongst those who were tested for COVID-19 in our setting

Escape from recognition of SARS-CoV-2 Beta variant spike epitopes but overall preservation of T cell immunity

SARS-CoV-2 variants have emerged that escape neutralization and potentially impact vaccine efficacy. T cell responses play a role in protection from reinfection and severe disease, but the potential for spike mutations to affect T cell immunity is incompletely understood. We assessed neutralizing antibody and T cell responses in 44 South African COVID-19 patients infected either with the Beta variant (dominant from November 2020 to May 2021) or infected prior to its emergence (first wave, Wuhan strain), to provide an overall measure of immune evasion. We show that robust spike-specific CD4 and CD8 T cell responses were detectable in Beta-infected patients, similar to first wave patients. Using peptides spanning the Beta-mutated regions, we identified CD4 T cell responses targeting the wild type peptides in 12/22 first wave patients, all of whom failed to recognize corresponding Beta-mutated peptides. However, responses to mutated regions formed only a small proportion (15.7%) of the overall CD4 response, and few patients (3/44) mounted CD8 responses that targeted the mutated regions. Among the spike epitopes tested, we identified three epitopes containing the D215, L18, or D80 residues that were specifically recognized by CD4 T cells, and their mutated versions were associated with a loss of response. This study shows that in spite of loss of recognition of immunogenic CD4 epitopes, CD4 and CD8 T cell responses to Beta are preserved overall. These observations may explain why several vaccines have retained the ability to protect against severe COVID-19 even with substantial loss of neutralizing antibody activity against Beta