Leaning against the wind: Effects of macroprudential policy on sectoral

Abstract. Use of macroprudential policies in recent years has gained relevance in different economies. As a result of the financial crisis in 2008, this instrument was useful in emerging economies to reduce the effects of the adverse international context. The relationship between financial intermediation and the real sector is positive, in response to shocks in productive credit the sectoral growth is 0.15pp in 2016. Likewise, the modification of the reserve requirement rate can provide or with draw liquidity from the financial system, in the first case, the objective is to increase portfolio placement, which affects the development of productive sectors. Therefore, there is a need to evaluate the effect of changes in the reserve requirement rateon sectoral growth in Bolivia, which was offset by the financial cycle because episodes of Credit Crunch affect the real sector (the economic cycle is amplified to the downside). The methodologies used are the Fixed Effects (FE), Random Effects (RA) and Panel Autoregresive Vectors (Panel-VAR) and recursive versions of them. The positive effects of the macroprudential policy and changes in the position that this instrument had over time, depending on the financial cycle, Leaning Against the Wind. Reserve requirement ratedecreasesof the national currency has positive impact on sectoral growth and tests with recursive versions shows positive effects and increase of credit towards the sectoral activity.Keywords. Reserve requirements, Interest rate, Fixed effects (EF), Random effects (RE), Panel VAR, Recursive estimation, Leaning against the wind.JEL. C50, E51, E52

Impulse on the Aggregate Demand in Bolivia through the coordination of the Monetary and Fiscal Policy in crisis time

At the end of 2014, the Bolivian economy, despite facing negative external shocks (falling oil prices), registered a high economic growth in the region of Latin America. Monetary policy was aimed at keeping the government bond rate close to zero and raising liquidity levels in the economy (monetary policy expansive). On the part of the government, the two main sources of income of the nonfinancial public sector (SPNF) are: i) tax revenues and ii) the sale of hydrocarbons (gas), at that time Bolivia's fiscal policy was countercyclical To the behavior of the Latin American Product (increases in fiscal expenditure in infrastructure). These antecedents, aid to the interest of the study of the coordination of the economic policy in Bolivia. The structure of a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model (DSGE) helps us to understand the transmission channels of shocks (in Taylor rule, Phillips curve and public investment) and how the monetary and fiscal policy reacts to these shocks

Determinantes de la dinámica en salarios

Marginal labor productivity (wages) and evolution over time is a relevant macroeconomic indicator. Its determinants from a structural point of view and empirical evidence by time series indicate that sustained economic growth generates favorable conditions for the labor market, positively impacting wages. On the other hand, the Herfindahl and Hirschman Index (HHI) shows that the greater the concentration of Bolivia's industrial gross domestic product, the more negative the effect on the evolution of wages. Finally, as the literature indicates, if the Human Development Index (HDI) is higher, the population has a greater probability of accessing the formal labor market, which is why wages are higher. The empirical contrast of the research was done by a model of Auto-regressive Vectors (VAR) and a Markov Switching regression due to the behavior of the wage index

Determinantes de la dinámica en salarios

Marginal labor productivity (wages) and evolution over time is a relevant macroeconomic indicator. Its determinants from a structural point of view and empirical evidence by time series indicate that sustained economic growth generates favorable conditions for the labor market, positively impacting wages. On the other hand, the Herfindahl and Hirschman Index (HHI) shows that the greater the concentration of Bolivia's industrial gross domestic product, the more negative the effect on the evolution of wages. Finally, as the literature indicates, if the Human Development Index (HDI) is higher, the population has a greater probability of accessing the formal labor market, which is why wages are higher. The empirical contrast of the research was done by a model of Auto-regressive Vectors (VAR) and a Markov Switching regression due to the behavior of the wage index

Evaluación de la Política Fiscal de Bolivia

I built a general equilibrium model for a small open economy, in order to analyze the effects of fiscal spending in Bolivia, observing certain effects on variables like is constructed: GDP, consumption, investment, exports, imports, real exchange rate and interest rate. Shocks are transmitted to the economy in the presence of the relationship between fiscal spending and the international price of oil, which was analyzed. The results indicate that in the short-term commodity price shock and fiscal spending have positively impacts in the product and despise the way real change

Discriminación salarial de género, efectos en la política monetaria y fluctuación cíclica del producto

The purpose of this research is to demonstrate the benefits of monetary policy based on wage equality in the labor market. The investigation considers the unpaid work that women assume, within the household. The results demonstrate wage discrimination between men and women is related to differential labor costs. Unemployment women take on unpaid work at home due to a decrease in their bargaining power compared to men in taking on household chores. Simulations show that an expansionary monetary policy is less effective the larger the wage gap between men and women is. With a wage gap of 17pp, Bolivia loses 0.16pp of GDP growth as a consequence of positive monetary policy shocks

Evaluación de la Política Fiscal de Bolivia

I built a general equilibrium model for a small open economy, in order to analyze the effects of fiscal spending in Bolivia, observing certain effects on variables like is constructed: GDP, consumption, investment, exports, imports, real exchange rate and interest rate. Shocks are transmitted to the economy in the presence of the relationship between fiscal spending and the international price of oil, which was analyzed. The results indicate that in the short-term commodity price shock and fiscal spending have positively impacts in the product and despise the way real change

Apalancamiento, ciclo financiero y económico

This paper provides pioneering estimates of the impact of loan-to-value (LTV) ratios, also known as leverage, on economic growth in Bolivia. The analysis reveals the pro-cyclicality between the economic and financial cycles, confirming the stylized facts. We emphasize the significance of recognizing the interplay between these cycles to attain greater stability and foster economic growth. The findings suggest that shocks in the loan-to-value (LTV) ratios trigger a rise in housing prices and greater consumption by entrepreneurs, leading to an increase in economic growth and employment levels. However, we also confirm the notion that leverage can be a double-edged tool, as its excessive utilization can disrupt markets and destabilize the overall economy

Evaluación de la Política Fiscal de Bolivia

I built a general equilibrium model for a small open economy, in order to analyze the effects of fiscal spending in Bolivia, observing certain effects on variables like is constructed: GDP, consumption, investment, exports, imports, real exchange rate and interest rate. Shocks are transmitted to the economy in the presence of the relationship between fiscal spending and the international price of oil, which was analyzed. The results indicate that in the short-term commodity price shock and fiscal spending have positively impacts in the product and despise the way real change

“Acelerador financiero, impacto del precio del gas”

A general equilibrium model was developed for a small and open economy with financial frictions in order to analyze the effects of monetary policy and fiscal policy in Bolivia on certain variables such as: GDP, Consumption, Investment, interest rates Inflation The results were obtained from cyclical contraction effects of the Taylor rule on inflation. The estimation was made for the time periods 2000 - 2005 and 2006 - 2015 through Bayesian econometrics. A different response is evident in both periods of time, in fiscal spending and the price of natural gas