Farmer's decisions and landscape change : an actor-based approach for land-use research

This dissertation has two objectives. The first objective is to link conceptually individual decisions and land-use/cover change (LUCC) patterns in rural regions. The second objective is to use these concepts to explore the influence of policy on LUCC as a response of farmers' decisions. To achieve these objectives, different approaches are used. Firstly, agent typologies are used to simplify and allocate the regional diversity of farmers' decisions. Secondly, an agent-based approach is used to link individual decisions and LUCC patterns in a regional model. Thirdly, this approach is applied to explore how farmers' response to national and global socio-economic and biophysical processes can affect the landscape of a Dutch rural region. Fourthly, this approach is applied to explore how farmers' participation in voluntary mechanisms to restore native vegetation can affect the landscape in rural Australia. Finally, the implication of these results for LUCC research and policy-making are discussed

Improving rural livelihoods as a 'moving target': trajectories of change in smallholder farming systems of Western Kenya

Understanding the diversity of current states, life cycles and past trajectories of households and agroecosystems is essential to contextualise the co-design of more sustainable agroecosystems. The objective of this paper was to document and analyse current states, trajectories of changes and their major drivers of households in a highly populated maize-based agroecosystem of Western Kenya. In 2013, we revisited 20 rural households that were surveyed, analysed and categorised 10 years ago (2003) in order to describe major changes in livelihood strategies, land use and soil fertility status. The household-level analysis was complemented with the analysis of secondary data on changes in drivers at the national level for the study period. The diachronic study showed a close association between drivers such as market and transport development, and the structure of rural households in terms of demographic shifts, land and labour exchanges, increased costs of agricultural inputs and better connectivity to markets. Between 2003 and 2013, the surveyed households experienced an increase in non-agricultural income by 30 %; intensity of land cultivation by 60 %; use of hybrid maize seeds by 35 %; and of synthetic fertilisers by almost 50 %. Local households increase their number of cross-bred livestock in detriment of local breeds and used less manure to fertilise their soils. In contrast, there were few changes in terms of food self-sufficiency (around 9 months per year) and in soil conditions (soil fertility was already poor in 2003). In terms of livelihood strategies, better-endowed households tended to diversify and acquire land that enabled them to adapt and benefit from the major changes observed in external drivers. In contrast, more vulnerable households sold labour and land to cope with such changes, remaining in a poverty trap. Households combine and explore diverse strategies to act, cope and adapt to fast-changing local and regional drivers. Policy or development programmes need to account for such diversity and dynamics to support the co-development of more adaptive and sustainable smallholder agroecosystems

A method to define a typology for agent-based analysis in regional land-use research

Land use/cover change (LUCC) is often the cumulative result of individual farmer's decisions. To understand and simulate WCC as the result of local decisions, multi-agent systems models (MAS) have become a popular technique. However, the definition of agents is not often based on real data, ignoring the inherent diversity of farmers and farm characteristics in rural landscapes. The aim of this paper is to describe an empirical method that defines an agent typology and allocates agents into the different agent types for an entire region. This method is illustrated with a case study in the Netherlands, where processes of farm expansion and diversification of farm practices take place. Five different agent types were defined and parameterized in terms of views, farm characteristics and location. Despite its simplicity, this empirical method captures several relations between farmers' views, farm characteristics and land-use decisions and strategies. This approach is a step forward in multi-agent systems of land use/cover change (MAS/LUCC) to include the diversity of land-use decisions and strategies in regional studies by empirically defining, parameterizing and allocating different agent types. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved

Empirical characterisation of agent behaviours in socio-ecological systems

Agent-based modelling has become an important tool to investigate socio-ecological processes. Its use is partially driven by increasing demand from decision makers to provide support for understanding the potential implications of decisions in complex situations. While one of the advantages of agent-based modelling is the ability to simulate the implications of human decision-making processes explicitly, methods for providing empirical support for the representation of the behaviour of human agents have not been structured systematically. This paper develops a framework for the parameterisation of human behaviour in agent-based models and develops twelve distinct sequences for the characterisation and parameterisation of human behaviours. Examples are provided to illustrate the most important sequences. This framework is a first step towards a guide for parameterisation of human behaviour in ABM. A structured discussion within the agent-based community is needed to achieve a more definitive guideline

Assessing the potential of dual-purpose maize in southern Africa: A multi-level approach

This paper explores the potential and challenges of increasing production of food and feed on existing maize fields in mixed crop-livestock systems in the semi-arid areas of southern Africa. It integrates results from different sources of data and analysis: 1. Spatial stratification using secondary data for GIS layers: Maize mega-environments combined with recommendation domains for dual-purpose maize were constructed for Malawi, Mozambique and Zimbabwe, stratifying the countries by demand factors (livestock densities and human population densities) and feed availability. Relative biomass contributions to feed resources from rangelands were compared to those from croplands to explore the usefulness of global datasets for feed supply estimations. 2. Verification through farming systems analysis: the potential demand for maize residues as feed (maize cropping patterns, maize yields and uses, feed deficits) was compared at contrasting sites, based on household survey data collected on 480 households in 2010. 3. Maize cultivar analysis: Genotypic variability of maize cultivars was compared to evaluate the potential contribution (stover quantity and quality) of dual-purpose maize to reduce feed deficits. The study results illustrate high spatial variability in the demand for and supply of maize residues. Northern Malawi is characterized by high livestock density, high human population density and high feed availability. Farmers achieve maize yields of more than 2 t/ha resulting in surplus of residues. Although livestock is important, southwest Zimbabwe has low livestock densities, low human populations and low feed availability; farming systems are more integrated and farmers make greater use of maize residues to address feed shortages. Central Mozambique also has low cattle densities, low human populations and low feed availability. More rangelands are available but maize yields are very low and livestock face severe feed shortages. The investigation of 14 advanced CIMMYT maize landraces cultivars and 15 advanced hybrids revealed significant variations in grain and stover yield and fodder quality traits. Where livestock densities are high and alternative feed resources are insufficient, maize cultivars with superior residue yield and fodder quality can have substantial impact on livestock productivity. Cultivars at the higher end of the quality range can provide sufficient energy for providing livestock maintenance requirements and support about 200 g of live weight gain daily. Maize cultivars can be targeted according to primary constraints of demand domains for either stover quantity or stover fodder quality and the paper proposes an approach for this based on voluntary feed intake estimates for maize stover