Record based analysis of indications and complications of 500 cases of lower segment cesarean sections at a tertiary care hospital

Background: The drastically increasing rate of caesarean section is a topic of constant worry and analysis throughout the world. In order to understand the degree to which caesarean section may be preventable, it is important to know why caesarean section are performed. This study is aimed to find out the rate of caesarean section at our institute, various indications of the procedure and complications related to them.Methods: This study was carried out retrospectively in the department of obstetrics and gynecology at Chirayu Medical College and Hospital, Bhopal. Study period was from January 2017 to December 2017. 500 cases of lower segment cesarean section were studied including both elective and emergency caesarean sections. Statistical analysis of age, parity, period of gestation, indications of LSCS and complications was done.Results: The rate of caesarean section came out to be 47.7%, which is far above recommended. Majority of patients (81.6%) were in 21-30 years age group; while the number of primary and repeat caesarean section were comparable (40.8% and 59.2%respectively). Commonest indication was previous LSCS (31.6%) followed by fetal distress (21.6%). Surgical site infection was present in 4.6% cases whereas, post-partum hemorrhage occurred in 5.8% cases. Three patients underwent obstetric hysterectomy and two cases of maternal mortality were reported among post LSCS patients.Conclusions: Increasing rates of caesarean section has contributed to maternal morbidity along with financial burden. Individualization of the indication and careful evaluation, following standardized guidelines, practice of evidenced-based obstetrics and audits in the institution, can help us limit rate of caesarean section

Spectrum of ectopic pregnancy in tertiary care centre

Background: Ectopic pregnancy is a catastrophic and life-threatening condition and one of the commonest acute abdominal emergency in day-to-day practice. Objectives of present study were to know the incidence of Ectopic pregnancy at Tertiary care centre, the age group, parity and risk factor of ectopic pregnancy, the clinical presentation of ectopic pregnancy and the outcome and management of ectopic pregnancy.Methods: It was a retrospective study conducted at Chirayu Medical College and Hospital, Bhopal from 1st June 2009 to 31st May 2014. A total of 42 patients with ectopic pregnancy were analyzed on clinical presentation, clinical findings, investigations, operative findings and outcome.Results: A majority of women (64.29%) were in the age group of 21-30 years and 78.57% were multigravida. Commonest risk factors were previous history of abortion (23.80%) and pelvic inflammatory disease (14.28%) Amenorrhea (92.85%) and pain abdomen (89.22%) were the most common presenting symptoms. Ampulla of fallopian tube was the commonest site (45.23%). Unilateral salpingectomy was performed in 40.47% patients. There were no maternal deaths and majority (80.96%) were discharged within seven days.Conclusions: Ectopic pregnancy still remains one of the major causes of maternal morbidity and mortality. Early diagnosis and referral in hemodynamically stable state along with use of minimal access surgery or medical management can change the scenario of ectopic pregnancy in the developing world

Arbuscular Mycorrhizal (AM) Fungi as a Tool for Sustainable Agricultural System

A sustainable agriculture is a type of agriculture that focuses on producing long-term crops and livestock without having any adverse effect on the environment. However, agricultural malpractices like excessive use of chemical fertilizers and pesticides, as well as climate change have aggravated the effects of biotic and abiotic stresses on crop productivity. These led to the degradation of ecosystem, leaving bad impacts on the soil qualities and water body environment. As an alternative to the rising agricultural energy, the use of Vesicular– Arbuscular Mycorrhizae (AM) may be a better option. Being natural root symbionts, AM provide essential inorganic nutrients to host plants, thereby improving its growth and yield even under stressed conditions. AM fungi can also potentially strengthen the adaptability of a plant to the changing environment, as a bio-fertilizer. The chapter provides a comprehensive up-to-date knowledge on AM fungi as a tool for sustainable agricultural system. Thus, further research focusing on the AM -mediated promotion of crop quality and productivity is needed

Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022–2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Future trends in disease burden and drivers of health are of great interest to policy makers and the public at large. This information can be used for policy and long-term health investment, planning, and prioritisation. We have expanded and improved upon previous forecasts produced as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) and provide a reference forecast (the most likely future), and alternative scenarios assessing disease burden trajectories if selected sets of risk factors were eliminated from current levels by 2050. Methods: Using forecasts of major drivers of health such as the Socio-demographic Index (SDI; a composite measure of lag-distributed income per capita, mean years of education, and total fertility under 25 years of age) and the full set of risk factor exposures captured by GBD, we provide cause-specific forecasts of mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age and sex from 2022 to 2050 for 204 countries and territories, 21 GBD regions, seven super-regions, and the world. All analyses were done at the cause-specific level so that only risk factors deemed causal by the GBD comparative risk assessment influenced future trajectories of mortality for each disease. Cause-specific mortality was modelled using mixed-effects models with SDI and time as the main covariates, and the combined impact of causal risk factors as an offset in the model. At the all-cause mortality level, we captured unexplained variation by modelling residuals with an autoregressive integrated moving average model with drift attenuation. These all-cause forecasts constrained the cause-specific forecasts at successively deeper levels of the GBD cause hierarchy using cascading mortality models, thus ensuring a robust estimate of cause-specific mortality. For non-fatal measures (eg, low back pain), incidence and prevalence were forecasted from mixed-effects models with SDI as the main covariate, and YLDs were computed from the resulting prevalence forecasts and average disability weights from GBD. Alternative future scenarios were constructed by replacing appropriate reference trajectories for risk factors with hypothetical trajectories of gradual elimination of risk factor exposure from current levels to 2050. The scenarios were constructed from various sets of risk factors: environmental risks (Safer Environment scenario), risks associated with communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (CMNNs; Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination scenario), risks associated with major non-communicable diseases (NCDs; Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario), and the combined effects of these three scenarios. Using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways climate scenarios SSP2-4.5 as reference and SSP1-1.9 as an optimistic alternative in the Safer Environment scenario, we accounted for climate change impact on health by using the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change temperature forecasts and published trajectories of ambient air pollution for the same two scenarios. Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy were computed using standard methods. The forecasting framework includes computing the age-sex-specific future population for each location and separately for each scenario. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for each individual future estimate were derived from the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of distributions generated from propagating 500 draws through the multistage computational pipeline. Findings: In the reference scenario forecast, global and super-regional life expectancy increased from 2022 to 2050, but improvement was at a slower pace than in the three decades preceding the COVID-19 pandemic (beginning in 2020). Gains in future life expectancy were forecasted to be greatest in super-regions with comparatively low life expectancies (such as sub-Saharan Africa) compared with super-regions with higher life expectancies (such as the high-income super-region), leading to a trend towards convergence in life expectancy across locations between now and 2050. At the super-region level, forecasted healthy life expectancy patterns were similar to those of life expectancies. Forecasts for the reference scenario found that health will improve in the coming decades, with all-cause age-standardised DALY rates decreasing in every GBD super-region. The total DALY burden measured in counts, however, will increase in every super-region, largely a function of population ageing and growth. We also forecasted that both DALY counts and age-standardised DALY rates will continue to shift from CMNNs to NCDs, with the most pronounced shifts occurring in sub-Saharan Africa (60·1% [95% UI 56·8–63·1] of DALYs were from CMNNs in 2022 compared with 35·8% [31·0–45·0] in 2050) and south Asia (31·7% [29·2–34·1] to 15·5% [13·7–17·5]). This shift is reflected in the leading global causes of DALYs, with the top four causes in 2050 being ischaemic heart disease, stroke, diabetes, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, compared with 2022, with ischaemic heart disease, neonatal disorders, stroke, and lower respiratory infections at the top. The global proportion of DALYs due to YLDs likewise increased from 33·8% (27·4–40·3) to 41·1% (33·9–48·1) from 2022 to 2050, demonstrating an important shift in overall disease burden towards morbidity and away from premature death. The largest shift of this kind was forecasted for sub-Saharan Africa, from 20·1% (15·6–25·3) of DALYs due to YLDs in 2022 to 35·6% (26·5–43·0) in 2050. In the assessment of alternative future scenarios, the combined effects of the scenarios (Safer Environment, Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination, and Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenarios) demonstrated an important decrease in the global burden of DALYs in 2050 of 15·4% (13·5–17·5) compared with the reference scenario, with decreases across super-regions ranging from 10·4% (9·7–11·3) in the high-income super-region to 23·9% (20·7–27·3) in north Africa and the Middle East. The Safer Environment scenario had its largest decrease in sub-Saharan Africa (5·2% [3·5–6·8]), the Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario in north Africa and the Middle East (23·2% [20·2–26·5]), and the Improved Nutrition and Vaccination scenario in sub-Saharan Africa (2·0% [–0·6 to 3·6]). Interpretation: Globally, life expectancy and age-standardised disease burden were forecasted to improve between 2022 and 2050, with the majority of the burden continuing to shift from CMNNs to NCDs. That said, continued progress on reducing the CMNN disease burden will be dependent on maintaining investment in and policy emphasis on CMNN disease prevention and treatment. Mostly due to growth and ageing of populations, the number of deaths and DALYs due to all causes combined will generally increase. By constructing alternative future scenarios wherein certain risk exposures are eliminated by 2050, we have shown that opportunities exist to substantially improve health outcomes in the future through concerted efforts to prevent exposure to well established risk factors and to expand access to key health interventions

Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations. METHODS The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds. FINDINGS The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles. INTERPRETATION Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Spectrum of ectopic pregnancy in tertiary care centre

Background: Ectopic pregnancy is a catastrophic and life-threatening condition and one of the commonest acute abdominal emergency in day-to-day practice. Objectives of present study were to know the incidence of Ectopic pregnancy at Tertiary care centre, the age group, parity and risk factor of ectopic pregnancy, the clinical presentation of ectopic pregnancy and the outcome and management of ectopic pregnancy.Methods: It was a retrospective study conducted at Chirayu Medical College and Hospital, Bhopal from 1st June 2009 to 31st May 2014. A total of 42 patients with ectopic pregnancy were analyzed on clinical presentation, clinical findings, investigations, operative findings and outcome.Results: A majority of women (64.29%) were in the age group of 21-30 years and 78.57% were multigravida. Commonest risk factors were previous history of abortion (23.80%) and pelvic inflammatory disease (14.28%) Amenorrhea (92.85%) and pain abdomen (89.22%) were the most common presenting symptoms. Ampulla of fallopian tube was the commonest site (45.23%). Unilateral salpingectomy was performed in 40.47% patients. There were no maternal deaths and majority (80.96%) were discharged within seven days.Conclusions: Ectopic pregnancy still remains one of the major causes of maternal morbidity and mortality. Early diagnosis and referral in hemodynamically stable state along with use of minimal access surgery or medical management can change the scenario of ectopic pregnancy in the developing world

Study of Risk Factors Associated With Term Low Birth Weight Neonates and its Placental Histopathological Correlation

Aims: The study was aimed to assess the risk factors leading to low birth weight in term neonates and correlate them with placental histopathology in cases of term LBW. Material and Methods: The study was conducted as a cross sectional study, at tertiary care centre on females delivering term neonates with LBW. All the females were subjected to detailed history, examination and blood investigations. Following delivery, baby details were recorded and placentae collected were subjected to gross and histopathological examination. Results: Incidence of term LBW was 13.39%. Anemia (33.5%) and hypertensive disorders of pregnancy (29.75%) were noted to be major high-risk factors. Shift in centrality of cord insertion was found to be a significant risk factor for LBW (P value =0.001 and 0.021). Baby weight and placental weight were both reduced in the presence of risk factors. Higher number of placental lesions were significantly associated with low birth weight (p<0.05) and it was found that more the number of placental lesions, greater was the decrease in the birth weight of the neonates. All the histopathological findings of placentae correlated with high risk (p<0.05). Conclusion: Examination of placentae conducted in present study proved to be a useful adjunct in finding the pathogenic mechanism resulting in LBW and can be helpful in timely detection, planning and management including desired interventions in future pregnancies

Study of Risk Factors Associated with Term low Birth Weight Neonates and its Placental Histopathological Correlation

Aims- The study was aimed to assess the risk factors leading to low birth weight in term neonates and correlate them with placental histopathology in cases of term LBW.Material and Methods- The study was conducted as a cross sectional study, at tertiary care centre on females delivering term neonates with LBW. All the females were subjected to detailed history, examination and blood investigations. Following delivery, baby details were recorded and placentae collected were subjected to gross and histopathological examination. Results- Incidence of term LBW was 13.39%. Anemia (33.5%) and hypertensive disorders of pregnancy (29.75%) were noted to be major high-risk factors. Shift in centrality of cord insertion was found to be a significant risk factor for LBW (P value =0.001 and 0.021). Baby weight and placental weight were both reduced in the presence of risk factors. Higher number of placental lesions were significantly associated with low birth weight (p<0.05) and it was found that more the number of placental lesions, greater was the decrease in the birth weight of the neonates. All the histopathological findings of placentae correlated with high risk (p<0.05). Conclusion:Examination of placentae conducted in present study proved to be a useful adjunct in finding the pathogenic mechanism resulting in LBW and can be helpful in timely detection, planning and management including desired interventions in future pregnancies

Knowledge, Attitude and Practices Regarding Covid in Pregnancy Among Women Attending Antenatal Clinic

Objective : Covid has emerged in December 2019 and since then has spread exponentially to present as pandemic. Awareness about social distancing and hygiene measures and practicing them correctly all the time remains the mainstay of prevention from this disease. This study aims to assess the knowledge attitude and practices related to Covid infection among pregnant womenMethods: This study was conducted over a period of three months from July 2020 to September 2020. Data was collected using a pre-designed validated questionnaire from 200 participants. Questionnaire included questions related to knowledge (15), attitude (4) and practices (5) regarding Covid infection. Scores for every participant in each category were calculated and then data was analysed.Results: 200 pregnant women who attended obstetric outpatient department of Sultania Zanana Hospital, Gandhi Medical College, Bhopal were included in the study. The median score for knowledge was 7 (SD+1.266). The median for attitude was 2 (SD+0.543) and the median score for practice was 3 (SD+0.298). Most of the participants (81%) knew that corona is a viral infection and 82% knew the main clinical symptoms of covid -19. 84% participant have positive attitude of winning of battle against corona virus. 64.5% knowingly skipped scheduled TT Vaccination or IFA/Calcium supplement due to covid infection.70% wore mask while going outside of the house.Conclusion: Findings from this study suggest that pregnant women visiting our facility have good knowledge, optimistic attitude and somewhat appropriate practices towards covid. Correct knowledge and awareness remains the first step towards prevention from this unpredictable disease. Targeted approach towards pregnant women with low KAP score who are at high risk for contracting disease would be helpful in spread of disease among them and their families

Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022-2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND: Future trends in disease burden and drivers of health are of great interest to policy makers and the public at large. This information can be used for policy and long-term health investment, planning, and prioritisation. We have expanded and improved upon previous forecasts produced as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) and provide a reference forecast (the most likely future), and alternative scenarios assessing disease burden trajectories if selected sets of risk factors were eliminated from current levels by 2050. METHODS: Using forecasts of major drivers of health such as the Socio-demographic Index (SDI; a composite measure of lag-distributed income per capita, mean years of education, and total fertility under 25 years of age) and the full set of risk factor exposures captured by GBD, we provide cause-specific forecasts of mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age and sex from 2022 to 2050 for 204 countries and territories, 21 GBD regions, seven super-regions, and the world. All analyses were done at the cause-specific level so that only risk factors deemed causal by the GBD comparative risk assessment influenced future trajectories of mortality for each disease. Cause-specific mortality was modelled using mixed-effects models with SDI and time as the main covariates, and the combined impact of causal risk factors as an offset in the model. At the all-cause mortality level, we captured unexplained variation by modelling residuals with an autoregressive integrated moving average model with drift attenuation. These all-cause forecasts constrained the cause-specific forecasts at successively deeper levels of the GBD cause hierarchy using cascading mortality models, thus ensuring a robust estimate of cause-specific mortality. For non-fatal measures (eg, low back pain), incidence and prevalence were forecasted from mixed-effects models with SDI as the main covariate, and YLDs were computed from the resulting prevalence forecasts and average disability weights from GBD. Alternative future scenarios were constructed by replacing appropriate reference trajectories for risk factors with hypothetical trajectories of gradual elimination of risk factor exposure from current levels to 2050. The scenarios were constructed from various sets of risk factors: environmental risks (Safer Environment scenario), risks associated with communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (CMNNs; Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination scenario), risks associated with major non-communicable diseases (NCDs; Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario), and the combined effects of these three scenarios. Using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways climate scenarios SSP2-4.5 as reference and SSP1-1.9 as an optimistic alternative in the Safer Environment scenario, we accounted for climate change impact on health by using the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change temperature forecasts and published trajectories of ambient air pollution for the same two scenarios. Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy were computed using standard methods. The forecasting framework includes computing the age-sex-specific future population for each location and separately for each scenario. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for each individual future estimate were derived from the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of distributions generated from propagating 500 draws through the multistage computational pipeline. FINDINGS: In the reference scenario forecast, global and super-regional life expectancy increased from 2022 to 2050, but improvement was at a slower pace than in the three decades preceding the COVID-19 pandemic (beginning in 2020). Gains in future life expectancy were forecasted to be greatest in super-regions with comparatively low life expectancies (such as sub-Saharan Africa) compared with super-regions with higher life expectancies (such as the high-income super-region), leading to a trend towards convergence in life expectancy across locations between now and 2050. At the super-region level, forecasted healthy life expectancy patterns were similar to those of life expectancies. Forecasts for the reference scenario found that health will improve in the coming decades, with all-cause age-standardised DALY rates decreasing in every GBD super-region. The total DALY burden measured in counts, however, will increase in every super-region, largely a function of population ageing and growth. We also forecasted that both DALY counts and age-standardised DALY rates will continue to shift from CMNNs to NCDs, with the most pronounced shifts occurring in sub-Saharan Africa (60·1% [95% UI 56·8-63·1] of DALYs were from CMNNs in 2022 compared with 35·8% [31·0-45·0] in 2050) and south Asia (31·7% [29·2-34·1] to 15·5% [13·7-17·5]). This shift is reflected in the leading global causes of DALYs, with the top four causes in 2050 being ischaemic heart disease, stroke, diabetes, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, compared with 2022, with ischaemic heart disease, neonatal disorders, stroke, and lower respiratory infections at the top. The global proportion of DALYs due to YLDs likewise increased from 33·8% (27·4-40·3) to 41·1% (33·9-48·1) from 2022 to 2050, demonstrating an important shift in overall disease burden towards morbidity and away from premature death. The largest shift of this kind was forecasted for sub-Saharan Africa, from 20·1% (15·6-25·3) of DALYs due to YLDs in 2022 to 35·6% (26·5-43·0) in 2050. In the assessment of alternative future scenarios, the combined effects of the scenarios (Safer Environment, Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination, and Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenarios) demonstrated an important decrease in the global burden of DALYs in 2050 of 15·4% (13·5-17·5) compared with the reference scenario, with decreases across super-regions ranging from 10·4% (9·7-11·3) in the high-income super-region to 23·9% (20·7-27·3) in north Africa and the Middle East. The Safer Environment scenario had its largest decrease in sub-Saharan Africa (5·2% [3·5-6·8]), the Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario in north Africa and the Middle East (23·2% [20·2-26·5]), and the Improved Nutrition and Vaccination scenario in sub-Saharan Africa (2·0% [-0·6 to 3·6]). INTERPRETATION: Globally, life expectancy and age-standardised disease burden were forecasted to improve between 2022 and 2050, with the majority of the burden continuing to shift from CMNNs to NCDs. That said, continued progress on reducing the CMNN disease burden will be dependent on maintaining investment in and policy emphasis on CMNN disease prevention and treatment. Mostly due to growth and ageing of populations, the number of deaths and DALYs due to all causes combined will generally increase. By constructing alternative future scenarios wherein certain risk exposures are eliminated by 2050, we have shown that opportunities exist to substantially improve health outcomes in the future through concerted efforts to prevent exposure to well established risk factors and to expand access to key health interventions. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation