Potential for airborne transmission of infection in the waiting areas of healthcare premises: stochastic analysis using a Monte Carlo model

BACKGROUND: Although many infections that are transmissible from person to person are acquired through direct contact between individuals, a minority, notably pulmonary tuberculosis (TB), measles and influenza are known to be spread by the airborne route. Airborne infections pose a particular threat to susceptible individuals whenever they are placed together with the index case in confined spaces. With this in mind, waiting areas of healthcare facilities present a particular challenge, since large numbers of people, some of whom may have underlying conditions which predispose them to infection, congregate in such spaces and can be exposed to an individual who may be shedding potentially pathogenic microorganisms. It is therefore important to understand the risks posed by infectious individuals in waiting areas, so that interventions can be developed to minimise the spread of airborne infections. METHOD: A stochastic Monte Carlo model was constructed to analyse the transmission of airborne infection in a hypothetical 132 m3 hospital waiting area in which occupancy levels, waiting times and ventilation rate can all be varied. In the model the Gammaitoni-Nucci equation was utilized to predict probability of susceptible individuals becoming infected. The model was used to assess the risk of transmission of three infectious diseases, TB, influenza and measles. In order to allow for stochasticity a random number generator was applied to the variables in the model and a total of 10000 individual simulations were undertaken. The mean quanta production rates used in the study were 12.7, 100 and 570 per hour for TB, influenza and measles, respectively. RESULTS: The results of the study revealed the mean probability of acquiring a TB infection during a 30-minute stay in the waiting area to be negligible (i.e. 0.0034), while that for influenza was an order of magnitude higher at 0.0262. By comparison the mean probability of acquiring a measles infection during the same period was 0.1349. If the duration of the stay was increased to 60 minutes then these values increased to 0.0087, 0.0662 and 0.3094, respectively. CONCLUSION: Under normal circumstances the risk of acquiring a TB infection during a visit to a hospital waiting area is minimal. Likewise the risks associated with the transmission of influenza, although an order of magnitude greater than those for TB, are relatively small. By comparison, the risks associated with measles are high. While the installation of air disinfection may be beneficial, when seeking to prevent the transmission of airborne viral infection it is important to first minimize waiting times and the number of susceptible individuals present before turning to expensive technological solutions

Low potency toxins reveal dense interaction networks in metabolism

Background The chemicals of metabolism are constructed of a small set of atoms and bonds. This may be because chemical structures outside the chemical space in which life operates are incompatible with biochemistry, or because mechanisms to make or utilize such excluded structures has not evolved. In this paper I address the extent to which biochemistry is restricted to a small fraction of the chemical space of possible chemicals, a restricted subset that I call Biochemical Space. I explore evidence that this restriction is at least in part due to selection again specific structures, and suggest a mechanism by which this occurs. Results Chemicals that contain structures that our outside Biochemical Space (UnBiological groups) are more likely to be toxic to a wide range of organisms, even though they have no specifically toxic groups and no obvious mechanism of toxicity. This correlation of UnBiological with toxicity is stronger for low potency (millimolar) toxins. I relate this to the observation that most chemicals interact with many biological structures at low millimolar toxicity. I hypothesise that life has to select its components not only to have a specific set of functions but also to avoid interactions with all the other components of life that might degrade their function. Conclusions The chemistry of life has to form a dense, self-consistent network of chemical structures, and cannot easily be arbitrarily extended. The toxicity of arbitrary chemicals is a reflection of the disruption to that network occasioned by trying to insert a chemical into it without also selecting all the other components to tolerate that chemical. This suggests new ways to test for the toxicity of chemicals, and that engineering organisms to make high concentrations of materials such as chemical precursors or fuels may require more substantial engineering than just of the synthetic pathways involved

IL10 Haplotype Associated with Tuberculin Skin Test Response but Not with Pulmonary TB

Evidence from genetic association and twin studies indicates that susceptibility to tuberculosis (TB) is under genetic control. One gene implicated in susceptibility to TB is that encoding interleukin-10 (IL10). In a group of 2010 Ghanaian patients with pulmonary TB and 2346 healthy controls exposed to Mycobacterium tuberculosis, among them 129 individuals lacking a tuberculin skin test (PPD) response, we genotyped four IL10 promoter variants at positions −2849 , −1082 , −819 , and −592 and reconstructed the haplotypes. The IL10 low-producer haplotype −2849A/−1082A/−819C/−592C, compared to the high-producer haplotype −2849G/−1082G/−819C/−592C, occurred less frequent among PPD-negative controls than among cases (OR 2.15, CI 1.3–3.6) and PPD-positive controls (OR 2.09, CI 1.2–3.5). Lower IL-10 plasma levels in homozygous −2849A/−1082A/−819C/−592C carriers, compared to homozygous −2849G/−1082G/−819C/−592C carriers, were confirmed by a IL-10 ELISA (p = 0.016). Although we did not observe differences between the TB patients and all controls, our results provide evidence that a group of individuals exposed to M. tuberculosis transmission is genetically distinct from healthy PPD positives and TB cases. In these PPD-negative individuals, higher IL-10 production appears to reflect IL-10-dependent suppression of adaptive immune responses and sustained long-term specific anergy

Correlation of virulence, lung pathology, bacterial load and delayed type hypersensitivity responses after infection with different Mycobacterium tuberculosis genotypes in a BALB/c mouse model

One of the most intriguing aspects of tuberculosis is that the outcome of an infection with M. tuberculosis (TB) is highly variable between individuals. The possibility of differences in virulence between M. tuberculosis strains or genotypes has only recently been studied. There is evidence of multifactorial genetic predisposition in humans that influences the susceptibility to tuberculosis. A better understanding of differences in virulence between M. tuberculosis genotypes could be important with regard to the efforts at TB control and the development of improved antituberculosis vaccines. Survival, lung pathology, bacterial load and delayed type hypersensitivity (DTH) responses of BALB/c mice after intratracheal infection with any of 19 different M. tuberculosis complex strains of 11 major genotype families were studied. The results indicate that among genetically different M. tuberculosis strains a very broad response was present with respect to virulence, pathology, bacterial load and DTH. ‘Low’-responders were the H37Rv, Canetti, Beijing-1 strains, while Beijing-2,3, Africa-2 and Somalia-2 strains were ‘high’-responders. A severe pathological response correlates with a high mortality and a high CFU counts in lungs, but poorly with the degree of the DTH response