Chicken Supreme: How the Indonesian Poultry Sector Can Survive Avian Influenza

Avian influenza is a deadly disease that can spread rapidly through poultry. There are many documented cases of transmission from birds to people, but as yet only rare instances of human to human transmission. Nonetheless, public health officials are concerned about the possibility of a human pandemic, and many countries have policies of banning imports of live birds and poultry meat from infected regions. The potential impacts on Indonesia of a production shock, a shift in consumption or a trade ban are assessed using a heterogeneous product model where imports are differentiated by source. Empirical results suggest the likely trade impacts in Indonesia are minimal because its trade is a small share of production.Avian Influenza, trade, poultry, Indonesia, Livestock Production/Industries, F13, Q17,

Intelligent laser soldering inspection and process control

Component assembly on printed circuitry keeps making giant strides toward denser packaging and smaller dimensions. From a single layer to multilayer, from through holes to surface mounted components and tape applied bonds, unrelenting progress results in new, difficult problems in assembling, soldering, inspecting and controlling the manufacturing process of the new electronics. Among the major problems are the variables introduced by human operators. The small dimensions and the tight assembly tolerances are now successfully met by machines which are faster and more precise than the human hand. The same is true for soldering. But visual inspection of the solder joints is now so severely limited by the ever shrinking area accessible to the human eye that the inspector's diagnosis cannot be trusted any longer. Solutions to correcting these problems are discussed

The role of fiberoptics in remote temperature measurement

The use of optical fibers in conjunction with infrared detectors and signal processing electronics represents the latest advance in the field of non-contact temperature measurement and control. The operating principles and design of fiber-optic radiometric systems are discussed and the advantages and disadvantages of using optical fibers are addressed. Signal processing requirements and various infrared detector types are also described. Several areas in which infrared fiber-optic instrumentation is used for temperature monitoring and control are discussed

Temporary Migration, Remittances and Agriculture

Discussions within the World Trade Organization on the temporary movement of labour across borders have met with limited success, in spite of the potential benefits to both home and destination countries. Developed countries have been reluctant to allow increased immigration because of concerns about the social and economic impacts of integrating foreign workers. Recently available bilateral data on current migration flows, differences in wages and remittances makes it possible to estimate the potential impacts of temporary migration on wages and national income. Using a general equilibrium model that separates skilled and unskilled labour, we show that a three per cent increase in the labour force due to increased migration would increase national income in Australia and New Zealand by an estimated US$5 billion annually. Remittances sent abroad would amount to an additional US$750 million. Most developing country regions would benefit. More specifically, allowing in 10,000 temporary unskilled workers to work in the agricultural sector in Australia generates estimated welfare gains of US$100 million.Migration, trade, GATS mode 4, International Development, F13, Q17,

Cold Storage: Why Doha Failed

The WTO negotiations on agriculture were placed in cold storage in July 2008 although 18 of the 20 major agenda items had been agreed. The sticking point was the safeguard measures to control import surges, while the final issue, relating to domestic support for US cotton, was not addressed. Quantitative analysis of the numbers on the table indicate that improvements in market access in the European Union and Japan drive changes in exports and welfare, whereas special safeguard measures, export subsidies, domestic support and special products appear to be of lesser importance. Many developing countries, including most LDCs, would enjoy export gains but experience welfare losses because of higher import prices.

Tariff Escalation in the Doha Talks--Bringing the Issue to Resolution

Development objectives dictate that the Doha negotiations address tariff escalation. This could increase the production and export of processed goods in developing countries, expand investment and employment, and reduce dependence on primary product exports. Despite its importance, little progress has been made, notwithstanding that a final resolution to the negotiations will not be possible without bringing this issue to resolution. This paper quantifies tariff escalation within WTO members' tariff schedules and the degree to which a tiered formula could address this problem. Utilizing a detailed partial equilibrium global agricultural trade model we estimate the possible gains to developing countries from reducing tariff escalation.tariff escalation, agriculture, trade, tariffs, WTO, International Relations/Trade, F13, Q17,

MAKING SENSE OF AGRICULTURAL TRADE POLICY REFORM

Proposals for agricultural trade reform put forward by the main protagonists remain far apart, with little sign of convergence. In an attempt to progress the negotiations towards a successful outcome, the chairman of the WTO Committee on Agriculture has proposed a compromise. The alternative proposals by the United States, the European Union and the WTO are analysed with the Agricultural Trade Policy Simulation Model, a static, multi-commodity, multi-region, partial equilibrium trade model. The estimated annual global welfare gains are $26 billion,$12 billion and $17 billion respectively. Least developed countries, as a group, gain from the US proposal but are made worse off under the WTO and EU proposals. Furthermore, in the best case many individual countries experience welfare losses. However, all countries enjoy increased export revenues and tariff revenues hold up quite well under the two less stringent proposals.agriculture, trade, modelling, negotiations, International Relations/Trade, F13, Q17,

Impact of Tariff Reductions in NAMA and Agriculture WTO Negotiations on GCC Common External Tariffs

The Gulf countries (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates) have a common external tariff that is unusually low with the exception of selected products such as alcohol and tobacco. As exporters of oil and gas and importers of agricultural products, the GCC is interested in the impacts of tariffs reductions in these products following the eventual completion of the Doha round. Of particular interest are four sectors (raw materials, gas-related goods, fisheries and chemicals), in which it is hoped tariffs will be eliminated. This will improve market access for the GCC countries, but it may also increase the competition depending on the initial bilateral tariffs. In agriculture, rising import prices driven by policy changes occurring elsewhere will increase import costs in the GCC countries. Potential gains and losses are identified using a bilateral trade model.International Relations/Trade,

Do Sensitive Products Undermine Ambition?

The long-running WTO negotiations remain unresolved. Agriculture is the main stumbling block. Members have agreed to linear tariff reductions within bands, but proposed exemptions for sensitive products, while providing for much needed flexibility, threaten to undermine the ambition. A detailed partial equilibrium global agricultural trade model is used to analyse the likely impact of exemptions from the formula tariff reductions. Applying one third of the formula cuts to the five per cent of lines with the highest tariffs increases the final developed country average agricultural tariff from 16 to 24 per cent but the negative impacts on trade and welfare are less dramatic.agriculture, trade, tariffs, WTO, International Relations/Trade, F13, Q17,

Vietnam's Trade Policy Dilemmas

Vietnam faces alternative options in opening its economy to trade. It is about to join the World Trade Organization; as a member of the ASEAN Free Trade Area it is contemplating extending the regional trade area to include China, Korea and Japan; and it has recently concluded a bilateral agreement with the United States. Opening up to trade is a two-edged sword, with the beneficial effects of improved market access and resource allocation liable to be partially or totally offset by adverse terms of trade effects and significant, albeit one-off, cost of structural adjustment. Simulations of unilateral, bilateral, regional and multilateral liberalization reform and a tariff harmonization scenario are undertaken using a general equilibrium model, GTAP. Results indicate that significant welfare benefits could be obtained from unilateral liberalization without the need to negotiate with others. Harmonization of tariffs at the current average also shows to be beneficial in raising tariff revenues with little need for adjustment. The extension of AFTA brings moderate benefits, as does a multilateral reform which reduces applied tariffs by 50 per cent. There are only limited gains in the agricultural and resources sectors, as these major exports face low tariff barriers. However, the market for Vietnam's textiles and apparel is crucially important.Vietnam, trade, WTO negotiations