Test Arrangement of Small-scale Shear Tests of Composite Slabs

AbstractComposite slab consists of the layer of concrete above the trapezoidal sheeting. The sheeting serves as a lost formwork as well as a tension bearing member after the hardening of concrete. The interaction between the sheeting and the concrete is necessary for composite action and can be ensured by prepressed embossments in the sheeting. According to nowadays codes, full scale bending tests are required in the design of the new sheeting of this type of composite slabs. An alternative longitudinal shear tests of a small part of the slab have already been derived by many authors. However, the testing arrangement is not unified. The results of the shear tests can be influenced by the magnitude and the way of application of the clamping force, the loading speed, the interface conditions and others. This paper presents a proposal of the testing arrangement and the recommendations for the testing procedure of small-scale shear tests. The recommendations are posted based on the results of several series of performed laboratory tests

Recalibrating and Combining Ensemble Predictions

The “model output statistics” (MOS) approach has long been used in forecasting to correct systematic errors of numerical models and to predict quantities not included in the model (Glahn and Lowry 1972). The MOS procedure is based on capturing the statistical relation between model outputs and observations and, in its simplest form, consists of a linear regression between these quantities. In theory, this procedure optimally calibrates the model forecast and provides reliable forecasts. In practice, the regression parameters must be estimated from data. In seasonal forecasting, forecast histories are short, and skill is modest. Both factors lead to substantial sampling errors in the estimates. This work examines two problems where sampling error affects the reliability of regression-calibrated forecasts and provides solutions based on two “penalized” methods: ridge regression and lasso regression (Hoerl and Kennard 1988; Tibshirani 1996). The first problem comes from the observation that, even in a bivariate setting, ordinary least squares estimates lead to unreliable forecasts. The second problem arises in the context of multivariate MOS and is that common methods of predictor selection lead to negative skill and unreliable forecasts

Brush border enzyme hydrolysis and glycaemic effects of isomaltulose compared to other saccharides in dogs

Digestible carbohydrates differ in glycaemic response, therewith having the potential to influence metabolic conditions such as insulin resistance and diabetes mellitus. Isomaltulose has been proven to lower the glycaemic response in humans, which to date has not been studied in dogs. Therefore, the aim of the present study was to characterise the digestibility, as well as the physiological effects of isomaltulose in dogs, in comparison to other saccharides. To this end, three studies were performed. Study 1 was an in vitro study, evaluating the small intestinal hydrolysis of isomaltulose compared to other relevant carbohydrate sources. Three of these saccharides, having close and low-moderate degrees of hydrolysis by brush border enzymes, were also evaluated in vivo for their glycaemic effects by measuring plasma levels of glucose, insulin and glucagon-like peptide 1 (GLP-1) 0-180 min after administration of a single dosage after an overnight fast (i.e., isomaltulose, sucrose and maltodextrin in a 3 × 3 Latin-square design, in 9 dogs, Study 2). To understand if digestive enzymes, underlying glycaemic responses for isomaltulose and sucrose can be upregulated, we exposed dogs to these saccharides for 2 weeks and repeated the measurements after an overnight fast in 18 dogs (Study 3). Isomaltulose was hydrolysed by intestinal enzyme preparation from all three dogs, but the degrading activity was low (e.g., 3.95 ± 1.03 times lower vs. sucrose), indicating a slower rate of hydrolysis. Isomaltulose had a low glycaemic response, in line with in vitro data. In vitro hydrolysis of sucrose was comparable or even higher than maltodextrin in contrast to the more pronounced glycaemic response to maltodextrin observed in vivo. The numerically higher blood glucose response to sucrose after continuous consumption, might indicate an adaptive response. In conclusion, the current work provides valuable insights into the digestion physiology of various saccharides in dogs. Further investigations on related benefits are thus warranted

Statistical decadal predictions for sea surface temperatures: a benchmark for dynamical GCM predictions

Accurate decadal climate predictions could be used to inform adaptation actions to a changing climate. The skill of such predictions from initialised dynamical global climate models (GCMs) may be assessed by comparing with predictions from statistical models which are based solely on historical observations. This paper presents two benchmark statistical models for predicting both the radiatively forced trend and internal variability of annual mean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) on a decadal timescale based on the gridded observation data set HadISST. For both statistical models, the trend related to radiative forcing is modelled using a linear regression of SST time series at each grid box on the time series of equivalent global mean atmospheric CO2 concentration. The residual internal variability is then modelled by (1) a first-order autoregressive model (AR1) and (2) a constructed analogue model (CA). From the verification of 46 retrospective forecasts with start years from 1960 to 2005, the correlation coefficient for anomaly forecasts using trend with AR1 is greater than 0.7 over parts of extra-tropical North Atlantic, the Indian Ocean and western Pacific. This is primarily related to the prediction of the forced trend. More importantly, both CA and AR1 give skillful predictions of the internal variability of SSTs in the subpolar gyre region over the far North Atlantic for lead time of 2 to 5 years, with correlation coefficients greater than 0.5. For the subpolar gyre and parts of the South Atlantic, CA is superior to AR1 for lead time of 6 to 9 years. These statistical forecasts are also compared with ensemble mean retrospective forecasts by DePreSys, an initialised GCM. DePreSys is found to outperform the statistical models over large parts of North Atlantic for lead times of 2 to 5 years and 6 to 9 years, however trend with AR1 is generally superior to DePreSys in the North Atlantic Current region, while trend with CA is superior to DePreSys in parts of South Atlantic for lead time of 6 to 9 years. These findings encourage further development of benchmark statistical decadal prediction models, and methods to combine different predictions

Patients Enrolled in Large Randomized Clinical Trials of Antiplatelet Treatment for Prevention After Transient Ischemic Attack or Ischemic Stroke Are Not Representative of Patients in Clinical Practice: the Netherlands Stroke Survey

Background and Purpose—Many randomized clinical trials have evaluated the benefit of long-term use of antiplatelet drugs in reducing the risk of new vascular events in patients with a recent transient ischemic attack or ischemic stroke. Evidence from these trials forms the basis for national and international guidelines for the management of nearly all such patients in clinical practice. However, abundant and strict enrollment criteria may limit the validity and the applicability of results of randomized clinical trials to clinical practice. We estimated the eligibility for participation in landmark trials of antiplatelet drugs of an unselected group of patients with stroke or transient ischemic attack from a national stroke survey. Methods—Nine hundred seventy-two patients with transient ischemic at

Vaccine herd effect

Vaccination ideally protects susceptible populations at high risk for complications of the infection. However, vaccines for these subgroups do not always provide sufficient effectiveness. The herd effect or herd immunity is an attractive way to extend vaccine benefits beyond the directly targeted population. It refers to the indirect protection of unvaccinated persons, whereby an increase in the prevalence of immunity by the vaccine prevents circulation of infectious agents in susceptible populations. The herd effect has had a major impact in the eradication of smallpox, has reduced transmission of pertussis, and protects against influenza and pneumococcal disease. A high uptake of vaccines is generally needed for success. In this paper we aim to provide an update review on the herd effect, focusing on the clinical benefit, by reviewing data for specific vaccines