Histological validation of diagnoses of thyroid cancer among adults in the registries of Belarus and the Ukraine

In order to evaluate the diagnostic reliability of the thyroid cancers listed in adult registries from the Ukraine and Belarus, a histological review was organised of 327 randomly selected thyroid carcinoma cases diagnosed between 1960 and 1999. A final diagnosis was reached at a 5-day consensus conference by six pathologists who met around a multiheaded microscope. The study concluded with a comparison between the final diagnosis and the initial diagnosis. The pathologists agreed with the initial diagnosis of malignancy in 286 cases (88%). A final diagnosis of papillary, follicular or medullary thyroid carcinoma was reached in 86, 4, and 6% of the cases respectively. In 2.8% of the cases reviewed, diagnostic discrepancies persisted. The percentage of agreement between the final diagnosis and the initial diagnosis was 93%, with a weighted κ-statistic of 0.61 (confidence interval 95% (CI 95%): [0.45-0.77]). In all, 89% of the 286 confirmed cancer cases were in agreement for the type of cancer, with a κ-statistic of 0.56 (CI95%: [0.43-0.69]). The level of agreement differed according to cancer categories, with concordance rates of 94, 40 and 33% for papillary, follicular and medullary thyroid carcinomas respectively. The low prevalence of follicular thyroid carcinomas in the adult population studied calls for further exploration. The discrepancies and classification difficulties encountered were analysed. © 2003 Cancer Research UK

Childhood exposure due to the Chernobyl accident and thyroid cancer risk in contaminated areas of Belarus and Russia

The thyroid dose due to 131I releases during the Chernobyl accident was reconstructed for children and adolescents in two cities and 2122 settlements in Belarus, and in one city and 607 settlements in the Bryansk district of the Russian Federation. In this area, which covers the two high contamination spots in the two countries following the accident, data on thyroid cancer incidence during the period 1991-1995 were analysed in the light of possible increased thyroid surveillance. Two methods of risk analysis were applied: Poisson regression with results for the single settlements and Monte Carlo (MC) calculations for results in larger areas or sub-populations. Best estimates of both methods agreed well. Poisson regression estimates of 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were considerably smaller than the MC results, which allow for extra-Poisson uncertainties due to reconstructed doses and the background thyroid cancer incidence. The excess absolute risk per unit thyroid dose (EARPD) for the birth cohort 1971-1985 by the MC analysis was 2.1 (95% CI 1.0-4.5) cases per 10(4) person-year Gy. The point estimate is lower by a factor of two than that observed in a pooled study of thyroid cancer risk after external exposures. The excess relative risk per unit thyroid dose was 23 (95% CI 8.6-82) Gy(-1). No significant differences between countries or cities and rural areas were found. In the lowest dose group of the settlements with an average thyroid dose of 0.05 Gy the risk was statistically significantly elevated. Dependencies of risks on age-at-exposure and on gender are consistent with findings after external exposures