NMR Study of Disordered Inclusions in the Quenched Solid Helium

Phase structure of rapidly quenched solid helium samples is studied by the NMR technique. The pulse NMR method is used for measurements of spin-lattice $T_1$ and spin-spin $T_2$ relaxation times and spin diffusion coefficient $D$ for all coexisting phases. It was found that quenched samples are two-phase systems consisting of the hcp matrix and some inclusions which are characterized by $D$ and $T_2$ values close to those in liquid phase. Such liquid-like inclusions undergo a spontaneous transition to a new state with anomalously short $T_2$ times. It is found that inclusions observed in both the states disappear on careful annealing near the melting curve. It is assumed that the liquid-like inclusions transform into a new state - a glass or a crystal with a large number of dislocations. These disordered inclusions may be responsible for the anomalous phenomena observed in supersolid region.Comment: 10 pages, 3 figure

Rotation-induced 3D vorticity in 4He superfluid films adsorbed on a porous glass

Detailed study of torsional oscillator experiments under steady rotation up to 6.28 rad/sec is reported for a 4He superfluid monolayer film formed in 1 micrometer-pore diameter porous glass. We found a new dissipation peak with the height being in proportion to the rotation speed, which is located to the lower temperature than the vortex pair unbinding peak observed in the static state. We propose that 3D coreless vortices ("pore vortices") appear under rotation to explain this new peak. That is, the new peak originates from dissipation close to the pore vortex lines, where large superfluid velocity shifts the vortex pair unbinding dissipation to lower temperature. This explanation is confirmed by observation of nonlinear effects at high oscillation amplitudes.Comment: 4pages, 5figure

Прогностическая модель риска развития энцефалопатии у пациентов с алиментарным панкреонекрозом

The objective: to develop a predictive model for assessing the risk of developing encephalopathy (EP) in patients with nutritional pancreatic necrosis.Subjects and Methods. A single-center prospective cohort study was conducted at Faculty Surgery Clinic of Volgograd State Medical University from 2010 to 2020. Logistic regression analysis was used to build a model for predicting the risk of developing EP.Results. A total of 429 patients were included in the study. It was determined that in the majority of patients EP manifested in the first three days after hospitalization. A statistically significant predictive model of correlation of the risk to develop EP with clinical and demographic variables showed that an increase in the severity of the patient's condition (according to the SOFA scale) by 1 point increased the risk by 1.9 times, and an increase in bilirubin levels by 1 μmol/l, and urea by 1 mmol/l increased the risk of AED by 8.0% and 28.0%, respectively. In non-alcoholic pancreatic necrosis, compared with the alcoholic genesis of the disease, and when using early (before day 3) enteral nutrition, there was a significant reduction in the risk of developing EP by 175.5% and 137% of cases. The specificity and sensitivity of the model were 78.7% and 82.8%, respectively.Conclusions. In nurtitional pancreatic necrosis, an increase in the severity of the patient's condition, alcoholic genesis of the disease, progression of signs of liver and kidney failure significantly increased the risk of developing EP. At the same time, early enteral nutrition contributed to a significant reduction in the risk of this complication. The presented predictive model is recommended to be used in routine clinical practice.  Цель: разработать прогностическую модель оценки риска развития энцефалопатии (ЭП) у пациентов с алиментарным панкреонекрозом.Материалы и методы. Проведено одноцентровое проспективное когортное исследование на базе клиники факультетской хирургии ВолгГМУ за период с 2010 по 2020 г. Для построения модели прогнозирования риска развития панкреатической ЭП использовали логистический регрессионный анализ.Результаты. Всего в исследование включено 429 пациентов. Определено, что у большинства больных ЭП манифестировала в 1-е, 2-е или 3-и сут после госпитализации. Статистически значимая прогностическая модель зависимости риска развития ЭП от клинико-демографических переменных показала, что увеличение тяжести состояния пациентов (по шкале SOFA) на 1 балл повышало риск в 1,9 раза, а повышение уровней билирубина на 1 мкмоль/л и мочевины на 1 ммоль/л увеличивало риск ЭП на 8 и 28% соответственно. При неалкогольном панкреонекрозе, по сравнению с алкогольным генезом заболевания, и при использовании раннего (до 3 сут) энтерального питания наблюдали статистически значимое снижение риска развития ЭП на 175,5 и 137% случаев. Специфичность и чувствительность модели составили 78,7 и 82,8% соответственно.Выводы. При алиментарном панкреонекрозе усугубление тяжести состояния пациента, алкогольный генез заболевания, прогрессирование признаков печеночной и почечной недостаточности статистически значимо увеличивали риск развития ЭП. В то же время раннее энтеральное питание способствовало значимому снижению риска этого осложнения. Представленная прогностическая модель рекомендуется к применению в рутинной клинической практике.

Коррекция гемодинамики гипертоническим раствором хлорида натрия при критических состояниях

Objective: to assess the capabilities of small-volume hypertonic infusion in the context of early goal-directed therapy for critical conditions in surgical patients.Subjects and methods. Twenty-nine patients (SAPS II 47.5±6.81 scores) operated on for generalized peritonitis (n=24) or severe concomitant injury with damages to chest and/or abdominal organs (n=5) who had the clinical and laboratory signs of a systemic inflammatory reaction were intravenously injected 4 ml/kg of 7.5% of hypertonic sodium chloride solution (HS) and colloidal solution, followed by infusion and, if indicated, inotropic maintenance of hemodynamics for 6 hours in order to achieve the goal vales of mean blood pressure (BP), central venous pressure (CVP), central venous blood oxygen saturation (ScvO2), and diuresis. Plasma concentrations of sodium, chlorine, and lactate, acid-base balance, and osmotic blood pressure were monitored.Results. The patients were found to have infusion therapy-refractory critical arterial hypotension, low ScvO2, and oliguria before small-volume circulation maintenance. In all the patients, HS infusion originally caused a rapid rise in BP up to the goal value, with its further colloid infusion maintenance requiring additional dopamine infusion in 12 patients and red blood cell transfusion in 3. This could stabilize over 6 hours BP at the required level in 25 patients, in 9 of whom CVP only approximated the goal value. All the patients were found to have a significant increase in ScvO2 up to an average of 68% in response to HP infusion after 30—60 minutes; in 14 out of them ScvO2 exceeded 70%. By hour 6, ScvO2 stabilized at its goal level in 23 (79%) examinees. Administration of HS caused a significantly increased diuresis. In patients with recovered renal function, the observed hypernatremia, hyperchloremia with hyperchloremic acidosis were transient.Conclusion. The results of the study show it possible to include small-volume hypertonic infusion at the starting stage of early goal-directed therapy, the net result of which will be determined by the recovery of water-electrolyte homeostasis. Цель исследования — оценка возможностей малообъемной гипертонической инфузии с позиций ранней целенаправленной терапии критических состояний хирургических больных.Материалы и методы. 29-и больным (SAPS II 47,5±6,81 баллов), прооперированным по поводу разлитого перитонита (24), тяжелой сочетанной травмы с повреждением органов груди и/или живота (5), имеющим клинические и лабораторные признаки системной воспалительной реакции, для достижения целевых значений среднего артериального давления (АД), центрального венозного давления (ЦВД), насыщения кислородом крови в центральной вене (ScvO2) и диуреза, внутривенно вводили 4 мл/кг 7,5% раствора хлорида натрия (ГР) и коллоидного раствора с последующей инфузионной и, по показаниям, инотропной поддержкой гемодинамики на протяжении 6 часов. Мониторировались плазменная концентрация натрия, хлора, лактата, кислотно-основное состояние и осмотическое давление крови.Результаты. До малообъемной поддержки кровообращения у больных отмечались критическая артериальная гипотензия, рефрактерная к проводимой инфузионной терапии, низкая ScvO2, олигурия. Инфузия ГР первоначально приводила у всех больных к быстрому подъему АД до целевого значения с его дальнейшей инфузионной поддержкой коллоидами, к которой у 12 больных потребовались дополнительная инфузия допмина, и у 3 — трансфузия эритроцитов. Это позволило за 6 часов стабилизировать на требуемом уровне АД у 25 больных, у 9 из которых показатели ЦВД только приблизились к целевому значению. В ответ на инфузию ГР у всех больных через 30—60 минут отмечалось достоверное повышение ScvO2 в среднем до 68%, причем у 14 из них ScvO2 превысила 70% . К 6 часам ScvO2 стабилизировалась на уровне своего целевого значения у 23 больных, т. е. у 79% исследованных. Введение ГР вызывало к этому времени выраженное увеличение диуреза. У больных с восстановленной функцией почек наблюдавшиеся гипернатриемия, гиперхлоремия с гиперхлоремическим ацидозом имели транзиторный характер.Заключение. Результаты исследования показывают возможность включения малообъемной гипертонической инфузии в стартовый этап ранней целенаправленной терапии, конечный результат которого будет определяться восстановлением водно-электролитного гомеостаза организма.

АРИТМИЧЕСКАЯ АКТИВНОСТЬ МИОКАРДА НА РАЗНЫХ ЭТАПАХ АНЕСТЕЗИИ И ПЕРИОПЕРАЦИОННОГО ПЕРИОДА У ПАЦИЕНТОВ, ПОДВЕРГАЕМЫХ ХОЛЕЦИСТЭКТОМИИ

Prevention of cardiovascular complications, which often result in fatal events in the peri-operative period, is one of the most crucial issues of modern anesthesiology.The objective: to investigate the changes in arrhythmic activity and conduction disorders during anesthesia and in the peri-operative period in the patients undergoing open cholecystectomy under general anesthesia.Subjects and methods. 57 patients of 60.1 ± 3.8 years old were enrolled in the study; they all underwent planned open cholecystectomy under combined anesthesia with tracheal intubation and artificial pulmonary ventilation. Group 1 consisted of 28 patients suffering from coronary heart disease (CHD) in the form of exertional angina of functional classes of I and II; and Group 2 included 29 patients without CHD. The frequency of episodes of group and polymorphic premature ventricular contractions, supraventricular tachycardia and atrioventricular block of degree II, was analyzed by daily Holter ECG monitoring for certain time periods during anesthesia and the peri-operative period. Stages of the study: I – on the eve of the surgery (18 h); II – within 6 hours before the surgery; III – immediate preparation and induction of anesthesia (62.0 ± 6.7 min); IV – maintenance of anesthesia (57 ± 14 min); V – recovery from anesthesia (48 ± 11 min); VI – the 2nd day after surgery (18 h).Results. A significant increase in the frequency of episodes of group and polymorphic premature ventricular contractions, supraventricular tachycardia and atrioventricular block of degree II, was found out at the stages of induction, maintenance and recovery from anesthesia in patients with CHD and in patients without concurrent cardiovascular disorders. Increased frequency of episodes of group and polymorphic premature ventricular contractions was observed in patients with CHD at the stages of induction and recovery from anesthesia (by 242 and 225%). The highest increase in the frequency of polymorphic premature ventricular contractions was observed in patients with CHD during recovery from anesthesia (by 284%) and in those without cardiovascular pathology at the induction stage (by 461%); the increase in episodes of supraventricular tachycardia was maximum at the induction stage in the patients without cardiovascular pathology (by 291%).Conclusion: Open cholecystectomy in general anesthesia is associated with increased arrhythmic activity and higher conduction disturbances incidence at all stages of anesthesia in patients with coronary heart disease and those without concurrent cardiovascular disorders. Профилактика сердечно-сосудистых осложнений, которые часто лежат в основе фатальных событий в периоперационном периоде, является одной из важнейших проблем в современной анестезиологии.Цель: изучение динамики аритмической активности и нарушений проводимости во время анестезии и в периоперационном периоде у пациентов, которым выполняется открытая холецистэктомия в условиях общей анестезии.Материал и методы. В исследование включено 57 пациентов в возрасте 60,1 ± 3,8 года, которым выполняли плановую открытую холецистэктомию в условиях комбинированной анестезии с интубацией трахеи и искусственной вентиляцией легких. Первую группу составили 28 пациентов с наличием ишемической болезни сердца (ИБС) в виде стенокардии напряжения I‒II функционального класса, вторую ‒ 29 пациентов без ИБС. Анализ количества эпизодов групповых и полиморфных желудочковых экстрасистол, наджелудочковой тахикардии и атриовентрикулярной блокады II степени проводили путем суточного холтеровского мониторинга ЭКГ на протяжении определенных временных промежутков во время анестезии и в периоперационном периоде. Исследовательские этапы: I – накануне операции (18 ч); II – в течение 6 ч перед операцией; III – непосредственная подготовка и введение в анестезию (62,0 ± 6,7 мин); IV – поддержание анестезии (57 ± 14 мин); V – выход из анестезии (48 ± 11мин); VI – 2-е сут после операции (18 ч).Результаты. Установлено значимое увеличение частоты эпизодов групповых, полиморфных желудочковых экстрасистол и наджелудочковой тахикардии и атриовентрикулярной блокады II степени на этапах введения, поддержания и выхода из анестезии как у пациентов с ИБС, так и у лиц без сопутствующей сердечно-сосудистой патологии. В большей степени наблюдалось увеличение эпизодов групповых и полиморфных желудочковых экстрасистол у больных с ИБС на этапах введения и выхода из анестезии (на 242 и 225%). Наибольший подъем частоты полиморфных желудочковых экстрасистол отмечен у пациентов с ИБС во время выхода из анестезии (на 284%) и у лиц без сердечно-сосудистой патологии на этапе введения в анестезию (на 461%); повышение эпизодов наджелудочковой тахикардии было максимальным на этапе введения в анестезию у больных без сердечно-сосудистой патологии (на 291%).Вывод. Выполнение открытой холецистэктомии в условиях общей анестезии сопровождается повышением уровня аритмической активности и увеличением случаев нарушения проводимости на всех этапах анестезии как у пациентов с ИБС, так и у лиц без сопутствующей сердечно-сосудистой патологии.

Patients with a Combination of Atrial Fibrillation and Chronic Heart Failure in Clinical Practice: Comorbidities, Drug Treatment and Outcomes

Aim. To assess in clinical practice the structure of multimorbidity, cardiovascular pharmacotherapy and outcomes in patients with a combination of atrial fibrillation (AF) and chronic heart failure (CHF) based on prospective registries of patients with cardiovascular diseases (CVD).Materials and Methods. The data of 3795 patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) were analyzed within the registries RECVASA (Ryazan), RECVASA FP (Moscow, Kursk, Tula, Yaroslavl), REGION-PO and REGION-LD (Ryazan), REGION-Moscow, REGATA (Ryazan). The comparison groups consisted of 3016 (79.5%) patients with AF in combination with CHF and 779 (29.5%) patients with AF without CHF. The duration of prospective observation is from 2 to 6 years.Results. Patients with a combination of AF and CHF (n=3016, age was 72.0±10.3 years; 41.8% of men) compared with patients with AF without CHF (n=779, age was 70.3±12.0 years; 43.5% of men) had a higher risk of thromboembolic complications (CHA2DS2-VASc – 4.68±1.59 and 3.10±1.50; p<0.001) and hemorrhagic complications (HAS-BLED – 1.59±0.77 and 1.33±0.76; p<0.05). Patients with a combination of AF and CHF significantly more often (p<0.001) than in the absence of CHF were diagnosed with arterial hypertension (93.9% and 83.8%), coronary heart disease (87.9% and 53,5%), myocardial infarction (28.4% and 14.0%), diabetes mellitus (22.4% and 7.7%), chronic kidney disease (24.8% and 16.2%), as well as respiratory diseases (20.1% and 15.3%; p=0.002). Patients with AF in the presence of CHF, compared with patients without CHF, were more often diagnosed with a permanent form of arrhythmia (49.3% and 32.9%; p<0.001) and less often paroxysmal (22.5% and 46.2%; p<0.001) form  of  arrhythmia.  Ejection  fraction  ≤40%  (9.3%  and  1.2%;  p<0.001),  heart  rate  ≥90/min  (23.7% and 19.3%; p=0.008) and blood pressure ≥140/90 mm Hg (59.9% and 52.2%; p<0.001) were recorded with AF in the presence of CHF more often than in the absence of CHF. The frequency of proper cardiovascular pharmacotherapy was higher, albeit insufficient, in the presence of CHF (64.9%) than in the absence of it (56.1%), but anticoagulants were prescribed less frequently when AF and CHF were combined (38.8% and  49, 0%; p<0.001). The frequency of unreasonable prescription of antiplatelet agents instead of anticoagulants was 52.5% and 33.3% (p<0.001) in the combination of AF, CHF and coronary heart disease, as well as in the combination of AF with coronary heart disease but without CHF. Patients with AF and CHF during the observation period compared with those without CHF had higher mortality from all causes (37.6% and 30.3%; p=0.001), the frequency of non-fatal cerebral stroke (8.2% and 5.4%; p=0.032) and myocardial infarction (4.7% and 2.5%; p=0.036), hospitalizations for CVD (22.8% and 15.5%; p<0.001).Conclusion. Patients with a combination of AF and CHF, compared with the group of patients with AF without CHF, were older, had a higher risk of thromboembolic and hemorrhagic complications, they were more often diagnosed with other concomitant cardiovascular and chronic noncardiac diseases, decreased left ventricular ejection fraction, tachysystole, failure to achieve the target blood pressure level in the presence of arterial hypertension. The frequency of prescribing proper cardiovascular pharmacotherapy was higher, albeit insufficient, in the presence of CHF, while the frequency of prescribing anticoagulants was less. The  incidence of mortality from all causes, the development of non-fatal myocardial infarction   and cerebral stroke, as well as the incidence of hospitalizations for CVDs were higher in AF associated with CHF

Varespladib and cardiovascular events in patients with an acute coronary syndrome: the VISTA-16 randomized clinical trial

IMPORTANCE: Secretory phospholipase A2(sPLA2) generates bioactive phospholipid products implicated in atherosclerosis. The sPLA2inhibitor varespladib has favorable effects on lipid and inflammatory markers; however, its effect on cardiovascular outcomes is unknown. OBJECTIVE: To determine the effects of sPLA2inhibition with varespladib on cardiovascular outcomes. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: A double-blind, randomized, multicenter trial at 362 academic and community hospitals in Europe, Australia, New Zealand, India, and North America of 5145 patients randomized within 96 hours of presentation of an acute coronary syndrome (ACS) to either varespladib (n = 2572) or placebo (n = 2573) with enrollment between June 1, 2010, and March 7, 2012 (study termination on March 9, 2012). INTERVENTIONS: Participants were randomized to receive varespladib (500 mg) or placebo daily for 16 weeks, in addition to atorvastatin and other established therapies. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The primary efficacy measurewas a composite of cardiovascular mortality, nonfatal myocardial infarction (MI), nonfatal stroke, or unstable angina with evidence of ischemia requiring hospitalization at 16 weeks. Six-month survival status was also evaluated. RESULTS: At a prespecified interim analysis, including 212 primary end point events, the independent data and safety monitoring board recommended termination of the trial for futility and possible harm. The primary end point occurred in 136 patients (6.1%) treated with varespladib compared with 109 patients (5.1%) treated with placebo (hazard ratio [HR], 1.25; 95%CI, 0.97-1.61; log-rank P = .08). Varespladib was associated with a greater risk of MI (78 [3.4%] vs 47 [2.2%]; HR, 1.66; 95%CI, 1.16-2.39; log-rank P = .005). The composite secondary end point of cardiovascular mortality, MI, and stroke was observed in 107 patients (4.6%) in the varespladib group and 79 patients (3.8%) in the placebo group (HR, 1.36; 95% CI, 1.02-1.82; P = .04). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In patients with recent ACS, varespladib did not reduce the risk of recurrent cardiovascular events and significantly increased the risk of MI. The sPLA2inhibition with varespladib may be harmful and is not a useful strategy to reduce adverse cardiovascular outcomes after ACS. TRIAL REGISTRATION: clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT01130246. Copyright 2014 American Medical Association. All rights reserved

Combination of Atrial Fibrillation and Coronary Heart Disease in Patients in Clinical Practice: Comorbidities, Pharmacotherapy and Outcomes (Data from the REСVASA Registries)

Aim. Assess the structure of comorbid conditions, cardiovascular pharmacotherapy and outcomes in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) and concomitant coronary artery disease (CAD) included in the outpatient and hospital RECVASA registries.Materials and methods. 3169 patients with AF were enrolled in outpatient RECVASA (Ryazan), RECVASA AF-Yaroslavl registries and hospital RECVASA AF (Moscow, Kursk, Tula). 2497 (78.8%) registries of patients with AF had CAD and 703 (28.2%) of them had a previous myocardial infarction (MI).Results. There were 2,497 patients with a combination of AF and CAD (age was 72.2±9.9 years; 43.1% of men; CHA2DS2-VASc – 4.57±1.61 points; HAS-BLED – 1.60±0,75 points), and the group with AF without CAD included 672 patients (age was 66.0±12.3 years; 43.2% of men; CHA2DS2-VASc – 3.26±1.67 points; HAS-BLED – 1,11±0.74 points). Patients with CAD were on average 6.2 years older and had a higher risk of thromboembolic and hemorrhagic complications (p<0.05). 703 patients with a combination of AF and CAD had the previous myocardial infarction (MI; age was 72.3±9.5 years; 55.2% of men; CHA2DS2-VASc – 4.57±1.61; HAS-BLED – 1.65±0.76), and 1794 patients didn't have previous MI (age was 72.2±10.0 years; 38.4% of men; CHA2DS2-VASc – 4.30±1.50; HAS-BLED – 1.58±0.78). The proportion of men was 1.4 times higher among those with the previous MI. Patients with a combination of AF and CAD significantly more often (p <0.0001) than in the absence of CAD received a diagnosis of hypertension (93.8% and 78.6%), chronic heart failure (90.1% and 51.2%), diabetes mellitus (21.4% and 13.8%), chronic kidney disease (24.8% and 17.7%), as well as anemia (7.0% and 3.0%; p=0.001). Patients with and without the previous MI had the only significant difference in the form of a diabetes mellitus higher incidence having the previous MI (27% versus 19.2%, p=0.0008). The frequency of proper cardiovascular pharmacotherapy was insufficient, mainly in the presence of CAD (67.8%) than in its absence (74.5%), especially the prescription of anticoagulants (39.1% and 66.2%; p <0.0001), as well as in the presence of the previous MI (63.3%) than in its absence (74.3%). The presence of CAD and, in particular, the previous MI, was significantly associated with a higher risk of death (risk ratio [RR]=1.58; 95% confidence interval [CI] was 1.33-1.88; p <0.001 and RR=1.59; 95% CI was 1.33-1.90; p <0.001), as well as with a higher risk of developing a combined cardiovascular endpoint (RR=1.88; 95% CI was 1.17-3 , 00; p <0.001 and RR=1.75; 95% CI was 1.44-2.12; p<0.001, respectively).Conclusion. 78.8% of patients from AF registries in 5 regions of Russia were diagnosed with CAD, of which 28.2% had previously suffered myocardial infarction. Patients with a combination of AF and CAD more often than in the absence of CAD had hypertension, chronic heart failure, diabetes, chronic kidney disease and anemia. Patients with the previous MI had higher incidence of diabetes than those without the previous MI. The frequency of proper cardiovascular pharmacotherapy was insufficient, and to a greater extent in the presence of CAD and the previous MI than in their absence. All-cause mortality was recorded in patients with a combination of AF and CAD more often than in the absence of CAD. All-cause mortality and the incidence of nonfatal myocardial infarction were higher in patients with AF and the previous MI than in those without the previous MI. The presence of CAD and, in particular, the previous MI, was significantly associated with a higher risk of death, as well as a higher risk of developing a combined cardiovascular endpoint

Персонализированное прогнозирование острого повреждения почек у пациентов с панкреонекрозом

Relevance. The incidence of acute pancreatitis is growing worldwide, being one of the leading causes of hospitalization in urgent surgery. The most common complication of pancreatic necrosis (PN) in the aseptic phase is acute kidney injury (AKI), which is an independent risk factor for an unfavorable outcome.The objective was to develop a personalized risk model for AKI in the aseptic phase of pancreatic necrosis.Materials and methods. A comparative cohort study of the results of treatment of 502 patients with pancreatic necrosis was conducted. The primary endpoint was considered to be the development of AKI, for the development of a personalized model of the probability of its development in sterile pancreatic necrosis, binary logistic regression analysis was used.Results. A model of independent variables was developed that reliably (p < 0.001) determined that with an increase in age by 1 year, the probability of developing AKI increased by 2.3%, and with a history of chronic kidney disease in a patient – by 3.2 times.The same model demonstrates that the risk of AKI in patients with pancreatic necrosis with an increase in glomerular filtration rate by 1 ml·min–1·1.73 m2 and with the use of balanced crystalloid solutions decreased by 5.0% and 3.0 times, respectively.The specificity of the model was 79.8%, sensitivity – 79.1%.Conclusion. The proposed model makes it possible to reliably predict the individual risk of AKI on the first day of hospitalization.Актуальность. Заболеваемость острым панкреатитом растет во всем мире, являясь одной из ведущих причин госпитализации в ургентной хирургии. Наиболее частым осложнением панкреонекроза (ПН) в асептическую фазу является острое повреждение почек (ОПП), которое является независимым фактором риска неблагоприятного исхода.Цель – разработка персонализированной модели риска развития ОПП в асептической фазе панкреонекроза.Материалы и методы. Проведено сравнительное когортное исследование результатов лечения 502 пациентов с панкреонерозом. Первичной конечной точкой считали развитие ОПП, для разработки персонализированной модели вероятности развития которой при стерильном панкреонекрозе применяли бинарный логистический регрессионный анализ.Результаты. Разработана модель независимых переменных, достоверно (p < 0,001) определяющая, что при увеличении возраста на 1 год вероятность развития ОПП увеличивается на 2,3%, а при наличии хронической болезни почек у пациента в анамнезе – в 3,2 раза. Эта же модель демонстрирует, что риск развития ОПП у пациентов с панкреонекрозом при увеличении скорости клубочковой фильтрации на 1 мл∙мин–1/1,73м2 и при использовании сбалансированных кристаллоидных растворов снижался на 5,0% и в 3,0 раза соответственно. Специфичность модели составила 79,8%, чувствительность – 79,1%.Вывод. Предложенная модель позволяет достоверно прогнозировать индивидуальный риск ОПП в первые сутки госпитализации