Universality of Cluster Dynamics

We have studied the kinetics of cluster formation for dynamical systems of dimensions up to $n=8$ interacting through elastic collisions or coalescence. These systems could serve as possible models for gas kinetics, polymerization and self-assembly. In the case of elastic collisions, we found that the cluster size probability distribution undergoes a phase transition at a critical time which can be predicted from the average time between collisions. This enables forecasting of rare events based on limited statistical sampling of the collision dynamics over short time windows. The analysis was extended to L$^p$-normed spaces ($p=1,...,\infty$) to allow for some amount of interpenetration or volume exclusion. The results for the elastic collisions are consistent with previously published low-dimensional results in that a power law is observed for the empirical cluster size distribution at the critical time. We found that the same power law also exists for all dimensions $n=2,...,8$, 2D L$^p$ norms, and even for coalescing collisions in 2D. This broad universality in behavior may be indicative of a more fundamental process governing the growth of clusters

Using synchronization to improve earthquake forecasting in a cellular automaton model

A new forecasting strategy for stochastic systems is introduced. It is inspired by the concept of anticipated synchronization between pairs of chaotic oscillators, recently developed in the area of Dynamical Systems, and by the earthquake forecasting algorithms in which different pattern recognition functions are used for identifying seismic premonitory phenomena. In the new strategy, copies (clones) of the original system (the master) are defined, and they are driven using rules that tend to synchronize them with the master dynamics. The observation of definite patterns in the state of the clones is the signal for connecting an alarm in the original system that efficiently marks the impending occurrence of a catastrophic event. The power of this method is quantitatively illustrated by forecasting the occurrence of characteristic earthquakes in the so-called Minimalist Model.Comment: 4 pages, 3 figure

Application of pattern recognition algorithm in the seismic belts of Indian convergent plate margin - CN algorithm

The earthquake catalogue from 1964 to August 1991 is used to identify the times of increased probabilities (TIPs) of the earthquake mainshocks of magnitudes greater than or equal to 6.4 and are associated with the Indian convergent plate margins, in retrospect. In Pakistan and Indo-Burma regions, the analysis was repeated for magnitude threshold 6.2 and 7.0 respectively. All the earthquakes (except one in the Hindukush region and one in Indo-Burmese region) in Pakistan, Hindukush-Pamir, Himalaya and Indo-Burmese regions were preceded by the special activation and hence were predicted. Approximately 23 ± 10% of the total time (1970 to August 1991) is occupied by the TIPs in all the regions. The reasons for failure to predict the two earthquakes in these regions are discussed. Our analysis gives a better picture of the regionalization and the size of the space-time volume for the preparation of an earthquake. The high success ratio of the algorithm proves that it can be applied in this territory for further prediction in the real time, without any significant changes in its parameters

Scale free networks of earthquakes and aftershocks

We propose a new metric to quantify the correlation between any two earthquakes. The metric consists of a product involving the time interval and spatial distance between two events, as well as the magnitude of the first one. According to this metric, events typically are strongly correlated to only one or a few preceding ones. Thus a classification of events as foreshocks, main shocks or aftershocks emerges automatically without imposing predefined space-time windows. To construct a network, each earthquake receives an incoming link from its most correlated predecessor. The number of aftershocks for any event, identified by its outgoing links, is found to be scale free with exponent $\gamma = 2.0(1)$. The original Omori law with $p=1$ emerges as a robust feature of seismicity, holding up to years even for aftershock sequences initiated by intermediate magnitude events. The measured fat-tailed distribution of distances between earthquakes and their aftershocks suggests that aftershock collection with fixed space windows is not appropriate.Comment: 7 pages and 7 figures. Submitte

Predictability of Self-Organizing Systems

We study the predictability of large events in self-organizing systems. We focus on a set of models which have been studied as analogs of earthquake faults and fault systems, and apply methods based on techniques which are of current interest in seismology. In all cases we find detectable correlations between precursory smaller events and the large events we aim to forecast. We compare predictions based on different patterns of precursory events and find that for all of the models a new precursor based on the spatial distribution of activity outperforms more traditional measures based on temporal variations in the local activity.Comment: 15 pages, plain.tex with special macros included, 4 figure

Aperiodicity in one-way Markov cycles and repeat times of large earthquakes in faults

A common use of Markov Chains is the simulation of the seismic cycle in a fault, i.e. as a renewal model for the repetition of its characteristic earthquakes. This representation is consistent with Reid's elastic rebound theory. Here it is proved that in {\it any} one-way Markov cycle, the aperiodicity of the corresponding distribution of cycle lengths is always lower than one. This fact concurs with observations of large earthquakes in faults all over the world

Report from the third international consensus meeting to harmonise core outcome measures for atopic eczema/dermatitis clinical trials (HOME).

This report provides a summary of the third meeting of the Harmonising Outcome Measures for Eczema (HOME) initiative held in San Diego, CA, U.S.A., 6-7 April 2013 (HOME III). The meeting addressed the four domains that had previously been agreed should be measured in every eczema clinical trial: clinical signs, patient-reported symptoms, long-term control and quality of life. Formal presentations and nominal group techniques were used at this working meeting, attended by 56 voting participants (31 of whom were dermatologists). Significant progress was made on the domain of clinical signs. Without reference to any named scales, it was agreed that the intensity and extent of erythema, excoriation, oedema/papulation and lichenification should be included in the core outcome measure for the scale to have content validity. The group then discussed a systematic review of all scales measuring the clinical signs of eczema and their measurement properties, followed by a consensus vote on which scale to recommend for inclusion in the core outcome set. Research into the remaining three domains was presented, followed by discussions. The symptoms group and quality of life groups need to systematically identify all available tools and rate the quality of the tools. A definition of long-term control is needed before progress can be made towards recommending a core outcome measure

CAFET Algorithm Reveals Wnt/PCP Signature in Lung Squamous Cell Carcinoma

We analyzed the gene expression patterns of 138 Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) samples and developed a new algorithm called Coverage Analysis with Fisher’s Exact Test (CAFET) to identify molecular pathways that are differentially activated in squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) and adenocarcinoma (AC) subtypes. Analysis of the lung cancer samples demonstrated hierarchical clustering according to the histological subtype and revealed a strong enrichment for the Wnt signaling pathway components in the cluster consisting predominantly of SCC samples. The specific gene expression pattern observed correlated with enhanced activation of the Wnt Planar Cell Polarity (PCP) pathway and inhibition of the canonical Wnt signaling branch. Further real time RT-PCR follow-up with additional primary tumor samples and lung cancer cell lines confirmed enrichment of Wnt/PCP pathway associated genes in the SCC subtype. Dysregulation of the canonical Wnt pathway, characterized by increased levels of β-catenin and epigenetic silencing of negative regulators, has been reported in adenocarcinoma of the lung. Our results suggest that SCC and AC utilize different branches of the Wnt pathway during oncogenesis

Effective in vivo and ex vivo gene transfer to intestinal mucosa by VSV-G-pseudotyped lentiviral vectors

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Gene transfer to the gastrointestinal (GI) mucosa is a therapeutic strategy which could prove particularly advantageous for treatment of various hereditary and acquired intestinal disorders, including inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), GI infections, and cancer.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We evaluated vesicular stomatitis virus glycoprotein envelope (VSV-G)-pseudotyped lentiviral vectors (LV) for efficacy of gene transfer to both murine rectosigmoid colon <it>in vivo </it>and human colon explants <it>ex vivo</it>. LV encoding beta-galactosidase (LV-β-Gal) or firefly-luciferase (LV-fLuc) reporter genes were administered by intrarectal instillation in mice, or applied topically for <it>ex vivo </it>transduction of human colorectal explant tissues from normal individuals. Macroscopic and histological evaluations were performed to assess any tissue damage or inflammation. Transduction efficiency and systemic biodistribution were evaluated by real-time quantitative PCR. LV-fLuc expression was evaluated by <it>ex vivo </it>bioluminescence imaging. LV-β-Gal expression and identity of transduced cell types were examined by histochemical and immunofluorescence staining.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Imaging studies showed positive fLuc signals in murine distal colon; β-Gal-positive cells were found in both murine and human intestinal tissue. In the murine model, β-Gal-positive epithelial and lamina propria cells were found to express cytokeratin, CD45, and CD4. LV-transduced β-Gal-positive cells were also seen in human colorectal explants, consisting mainly of CD45, CD4, and CD11c-positive cells confined to the LP.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>We have demonstrated the feasibility of LV-mediated gene transfer into colonic mucosa. We also identified differential patterns of mucosal gene transfer dependent on whether murine or human tissue was used. Within the limitations of the study, the LV did not appear to induce mucosal damage and were not distributed beyond the distal colon.</p