Heavy rain prediction using deterministic and probabilistic models ? the flash flood cases of 11?13 October 2005 in Catalonia (NE Spain)

International audienceBetween the 11 and 13 October 2005 several flash floods were produced along the coast of Catalonia (NE Spain) due to a significant heavy rainfall event. Maximum rainfall achieved values up to 250 mm in 24 h. The total amount recorded during the event in some places was close to 350 mm. Barcelona city was also in the affected area where high rainfall intensities were registered, but just a few small floods occurred, thanks to the efficient urban drainage system of the city. Two forecasting methods have been applied in order to evaluate their capability of prediction regarding extreme events: the deterministic MM5 model and a probabilistic model based on the analogous method. The MM5 simulation allows analysing accurately the main meteorological features with a high spatial resolution (2 km), like the formation of some convergence lines over the region that partially explains the maximum precipitation location during the event. On the other hand, the analogous technique shows a good agreement among highest probability values and real affected areas, although a larger pluviometric rainfall database would be needed to improve the results. The comparison between the observed precipitation and from both QPF (quantitative precipitation forecast) methods shows that the analogous technique tends to underestimate the rainfall values and the MM5 simulation tends to overestimate them

An analysis of the evolution of hydrometeorological extremes in newspapers: the case of Catalonia, 1982–2006

This contribution analyzes the evolution of perception of certain natural hazards over the past 25 years in a Mediterranean region. Articles from newspapers have been used as indicator. To this end a specific Spanish journal has been considered and an ACCESS database has been created with the summarized information from each news item. The database includes data such as the location of each specific article in the newspaper, its length, the number of pictures and figures, the headlines and a summary of the published information, including all the instrumental data. The study focused on hydrometeorological extremes, mainly floods and droughts, in the northeast of the Iberian Peninsula. The number of headlines per event, trends and other data have been analyzed and compared with "measured" information, in order to identify any bias that could lead to an erroneous perception of the phenomenon. The SPI index (a drought index based on standardized accumulated precipitation) has been calculated for the entire region, and has been used for the drought analysis, while a geodatabase implemented on a GIS built for all the floods recorded in Catalonia since 1900 (INUNGAMA) has been used to analyze flood evolution. Results from a questionnaire about the impact of natural hazards in two specific places have been also used to discuss the various perceptions between rural and urban settings. Results show a better correlation between the news about drought or water scarcity and SPI than between news on floods in Catalonia and the INUNGAMA database. A positive trend has been found for non-catastrophic floods, which is explained by decrease of the perception thresholds, the increase of population density in the most flood-prone areas and changes in land use

Application of the MM5 and the analogous method to heavy rainfall event, the case of 16?18 October 2003 in Catalonia (NE Spain)

International audienceBetween the 16 and 18 October 2003, some amounts of precipitation greater than 225mm and sea waves higher than 8.5m were recorded in Catalonia (NE Spain) and near its coast. Some rivers in the NE of the region were overflowed and the sea swell produced several damages near the coast. In order to analyse this case and to improve the forecasting of events like this, two methodologies have been applied: one deterministic and another one, probabilistic. The deterministic analysis has been made by using the MM5 mesoscale model. A 48 h simulation has been designed for three domains connected with two way nesting and having 54, 18, 6 km horizontal grid resolution and vertical resolution of 23 levels, and it has been initialised with the NCEP Analyses. The simulation suggests that orography played an important role on the precipitation generation (maxima were located where the wind at low levels impinged on the mountain ranges perpendicularly). The strong pressure gradient produced in the North of Catalonia and West part of the Gulf of Lyon, was the responsible of the great marine alteration. On the other hand, the 6 km resolution precipitation forecast for Catalonia is accurate, since it shows a spatial distribution and amounts quite similar to the observations obtained from 315 automatic rain gauges. The analogous technique applied here, considers the meteorological situations similar to the current one, in terms of the 850 and 1000 hPa geopotential fields at 00:00 UTC and 12:00 UTC from the NCEP/NCAR meteorological reanalysis for the period 1958?2003. Two windows have been considered, the first one from 60° N to 30° N and from 30° W to 30° E, and the second one, centred in Catalonia, from 45° N to 37.5° N and from 5° W to 10° E. The best 100 analogous have been selected and the comparison of the results with those obtained for other heavy rainfall events has been also done