The Great Recession and Material Hardship

Little research looks at the relationship between macroeconomic indicators and material hardship. High unemployment rates as a result of economic downturns are likely to lead to lost income, increased poverty, and material hardship. We examine the effect of the unemployment rate on hardship – food insecurity, difficulty paying bills, housing insecurity, unmet medical needs, and having utilities cut off – and investigate the role that government safety nets play in mitigating the effects of unemployment on the experience of material hardship. We use data from the Fragile Families and Child Well-being Study. The latest wave of data was collected during the Great Recession, the worst recession since the Great Depression, providing a unique opportunity to look at how high unemployment rates affect the well-being of low income families.Material Hardship, Unemployment, Recession

How Much Can Outlook Forecasts be Improved? An Application to the U.S. Hog Market

This study investigates the predictability of outlook hog price forecasts released by Iowa State University relative to alternative market and time-series forecasts. The findings suggest that predictive performance of the outlook hog price forecasts can be improved substantially. Under RMSE, VARs estimated with Bayesian procedures that allow for some degree of flexibility and model averaging consistently outperform Iowa outlook estimates at all forecast horizons. Evidence from the encompassing tests, which are highly stringent tests of forecast performance, indicates that many price forecasts do provide incremental information relative to Iowa. Simple combinations of these models and outlook forecasts are able to reduce forecast errors by economically significant levels. The value of the forecast information is highest at the first horizon and then gradually declines.forecast, futures, models, prices, time-series, vector autoregression, Agricultural Finance,

Looking Inside The Black Box

Intensive family preservation services (IFPS), designed to stabilize at-risk families and avert out-of-home care, have been the focus of many randomized, experimental studies. The emphasis on gold-standard evaluation of IFPS has resulted in fewer black box studies that describe actual IFPS service patterns and the fidelity with which they adhere to IFPS program theory. Intervention research is important to the advancement of programs designed to protect the safety of children, improve family functioning, as well as prevent out-of-home placement. Employing a retrospective “clinical data-mining” (CDM) methodology, this exploratory study of Families First, an IFPS program, makes use of available information extracted from client records to describe interventions and service patterns provided over a two year period. This study uncovers actual IFPS service patterns, demonstrates IFPS program fidelity, as well as reveals the usefulness of CDM as a social work research methodology. These findings are particularly valuable for program planning and treatment, policy development and evidence-based practice research

Learning What Works: Demonstrating Practice Effectiveness with Children and Families Through Retrospective Investigation

Intensive family preservation services (IFPS), designed to stabilize at-risk families and avert out-of-home care, have been the focus of many randomized, experimental studies. Employing a retrospective “clinical data-mining” (CDM) methodology (Epstein, 2001), this study makes use of available information extracted from client records in one IFPS agency over the course of two years. The primary goal of this descriptive and associational study was to gain a clearer understanding of IFPS service delivery and effectiveness. Interventions provided to families are delineated and assessed for their impact on improved family functioning, their impact on the reduction of family violence, as well as placement prevention. Findings confirm the use of a wide range of services consistent with IFPS program theory. Because the study employs a quasi-experimental, retrospective use of available information, clinical outcomes described cannot be causally attributed to interventions employed as with randomized controlled trials. With regard to service outcomes, findings suggest that family education, empowerment services and advocacy are most influential in placement prevention and in ameliorating unmanageable behaviors in children as well as the incidence of family violence

First Results From the Large Binocular Telescope: Deep Photometry of New dSphs

This contribution describes photometry for two Galactic dSphs obtained with the Large Binocular Telescope to a magnitude of ~25.5. Using the Large Binocular Camera, a purpose-built wide-field imager for the LBT, we have examined the structure and star formation histories of two newly-discovered Local Group members, the Hercules dSph and the Leo T dSph/dIrr system. We have constructed a structural map for the Hercules system using three-filter photometry to V ~ 25.5. This is the first deep photometry for this system, and it indicates that Hercules is unusually elongated, possibly indicating distortion due to the Galactic tidal field. We have also derived the first star formation history for the Leo T system, and find that its oldest population of stars (age ~ 13 Gyr) were relatively metal-rich, with [Fe/H] ~ -1.5.Comment: Four pages, two figures. To appear in the proceedings of "Galaxies in the Local Volume", Astrophysics and Space Science, editors B. Koribalski and H. Jerje

Bulk-mediated diffusion on a planar surface: full solution

We consider the effective surface motion of a particle that intermittently unbinds from a planar surface and performs bulk excursions. Based on a random walk approach we derive the diffusion equations for surface and bulk diffusion including the surface-bulk coupling. From these exact dynamic equations we analytically obtain the propagator of the effective surface motion. This approach allows us to deduce a superdiffusive, Cauchy-type behavior on the surface, together with exact cutoffs limiting the Cauchy form. Moreover we study the long-time dynamics for the surface motion.Comment: 12 pages, 1 figur

High power operation of an X-band gyrotwistron

We report the first experimental verification of a gyrotwistron amplifier. The device utilized a single 9.858 GHz, TE011 cavity, a heavily attenuated drift tube, and a long tapered output waveguide section. With a 440 kV, 200-245 A, 1 μs electron beam and a sharply tapered axial magnetic field, peak powers above 21 MW were achieved with a gain near 24 dB. Performance was limited by competition from a fundamental TE11 mode. A multimode code was developed to analyze this system, and simulations were in good agreement with the experiment