A method of determining risk zones of investment in real estate

In the real estate sector, especially in construction or purchasing of commercial buildings, adequate evaluation of market development and property management is of paramount importance. In this paper, application of mathematical modelling to evaluating the efficiency and risk of investment projects is discussed. Most of the microeconomic models are discrete, implying that the initial data and the results obtained are discrete values. In the suggested model, the most likely variability intervals of the parameters are taken as the basis of modelling. The models suggested in the present paper deal with local investment problems, which should be promptly solved in the presence of a great number of alternative investment possibilities. The modelling is aimed at determining zones related to the quality of decisions in the area of investment. The principles of mathematical modelling and determination of various financial risk zones are described. An example of determination of risk zones of investments in Vilnius are presented

Evaluation of the commercial potential of high technologies

Как правило общепризнанна эксклюзивная сила и стоимость технологии по отношению к бизнесу и экономики страны из-за возможности создать высокую добавленную стоимость. Для учреждений, выполняющих НИЭР (научные исследования и экспериментальные разработки), необходимо средство для развития технологических решений на основе определенной целесообразности на стадии коммерциализации для избежания непродуктивных инвестиций, т. е. необходимо средство для оценки коммерческого потенциала технологии. В научной литературе при оценке коммерческого потенциала не были приняты во внимание особенности высоких технологий, поэтому научные исследования оценки коммерческого потенциала технологии являются актуальными в науке управления. Цель статьи: на основании экспертных оценок определить значимость факторов коммерческого потенциала высоких и традиционных технологий. Для достижения поставленной цели были сформулированы следующие задачи: (1) с помощью методов и моделей для проведения критического сравнительного анализа коммерческого потенциала определить факторы и составлящие факторов коммерческого потенциала технологий; (2) проанализировав литературу по маркетингу высоких технологий, выявить факторы и составлящие факторов, определяющие коммерческий потенциал этих технологий; (3) провести экспертное исследование направленное на сбор информации о значимости факторов высоких и традиционных технологий; (4) используя методы математической статистики, оценить степень согласованности мнений экспертов и рассчитать веса факторов и их составляющих.It is widely accepted that the primary value of technology in relation to business and the national economy consists in the ability to generate high added value. R&D institutions are in need of a decision-making mechanism basing on a particular set of goals that will help avoid unproductive investments in the technology commercialization process. In other words, they need a tool for the assessment of the commercial potential of technologies. Specific characteristics of high technologies has not been taken into account in the scientific literature so fat. Therefore, research on the assessment of the commercial potential of technologies should be regarded as relevant in contemporary management sciences. The aim of the paper is to determine – on the basis of experts’ assessment – the significance of the factors influencing the commercial potential of high and traditional technologies. In order to achieve that goal the following research tasks have been formulated: (1) to determine the factors (and their constituents) influencing the commercial potential of technologies by applying the methods and models of critical comparative analysis; (2) to reveal the factors (and their constituents) determining the commercial potential of technologies through the analysis of the scientific literature on the high technologies marketing; (3) to conduct the expert study aiming at the gathering of information on the significance of the high and traditional technologies factors; (4) to evaluate the level of unanimity of experts’ opinions using statistical methods, to calculate the weights of factors and the constituents thereof

Scientific Applications of the AHP Method in Transport Problems

In methodologies of solving different transport problems where the best decision has to be determined usually a number of chosen quantitative criteria are incorporated, which describe qualitative parameters of transport systems in quantitative terms. Often weights which reveal importance of such criteria must be evaluated. The realm of proprietary methods used in engineering sampling and experimental studies does not comprise methods of weight evaluation. Consequently, expert evaluation methods, which elicit weights of criteria from experienced, qualified and fair experts, are used. Among the most popular such methods is the method AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process). Scientists of Vilnius Gediminas Technical University used this method for investigation of interrelationship of elements of a transport system; for evaluation of influence of the interrelationship on road traffic safety; and for evaluation of quality of passenger railway transportation service

Application of a quantitative multiple criteria decision making (MCDM-1) approach to the analysis of investments in construction

The paper considers major principles of methods based on quantitative measurements. The problem of construction investments is of paramount importance because they determine the potential of construction and the structure of expenses. The calculation of investments is an expensive tool of enterprise management used in planning the investments. It can be perceived as the harmonization and evaluation of the models for investment decision-making. Methods based on a single criterion can hardly be used in solving the problems associated with sophisticated technological or marketing systems. It is a multiple attribute decision method, taking into consideration major efficiency criteria, that enables the effective methods of solving complicated problems. When the quantitative criteria are precisely defined, the developed quantitative multiple criteria decision making (MCDM-1) method can be successfully applied. The present paper is devoted to the analysis of the algorithm and methods of application of the suggested technique

Regional development in Lithuania considering multiple objectives by the MOORA method

The inequality between the regional incomes in a nation with a developed fiscal and parafiscal regime including social security will be equilibrated automatically by transfer payments from the richer to the poorer regions. The automatic system is not a guaranty for success. Internationally a project oriented system of the international organizations is known instead of an automatic system but the final goal is not always very clear. Multiple Objectives Optimization looks more robust to obtain regional and international development. Moreover a system of transfer payments is not sufficient to measure the well being of a regional population. In the well‐being economy, each individual would have to feel good concerning material wealth, health, education, all kind of security and concerning the environment. With other words, multiple objectives have to be fulfilled. However, these different multiple objectives are expressed in different units. Weights are most of the time used to equalize these different units. Introduction of weights means introduction of subjectivity. In order to avoid this dilemma, the internal mechanical solution of a ratio system, producing dimensionless numbers, is preferred: MOORA. In addition, this outcome creates the opportunity to use an additional non‐subjective reference point theory. The choice and importance of the objectives is also non‐subjective if all stakeholders involved come to an agreement. This theory is applied on the different counties of Lithuania. At that moment it is no more only a question of redistribution of income but also of a national policy of new constructions, of tourism development, of pollution abatement and of energy renewables, after the European Commission “related to the promotion of local employment”. Santrauka Nelygybė tarp skirtingų regionų pajamų išlyginama remiant skurdesnius regionus, t. y. dali turtingesnių regionų pajamų pervedant skurdesniems. Tačiau tokia sistema nėra sėkmės garantas, be to, ji nepajėgi įvertinti regiono gyventojų geroves. Plačiai žinoma tikslinės paramos sistema, kurią taiko tarptautines organizacijos, tačiau jos galutiniai rezultatai ne visada būna akivaizdūs. Esant gerovės ekonomikai, kiekvienas individas turėtų būti patenkintas materialine gerove, sveikatos apsauga, švietimu, saugumu bei aplinkosauga. Kitaip tariant, turi būti išpildyti daugelis siekių. Tačiau šie skirtingi siekiai išreiškiami skirtingais mato vienetais. Be to, skirtingiems siekiams sulyginti pasitelkiami reikšmingumui, kurie suteikia subjektyvumo. Siekiant to išvengti, pirmenybė teikiama reitingavimo sistema turinčiam MOORA metodui, paverčiančiam domesinius skaičius beįdomesniais. Be to, jis sukuria galimybę naudoti nesubjektyvią ekstrinio taško teoriją. Tikslai ir jų svarba yra objektyvūs, jei visos suinteresuotos puses dėl jų sutaria. Ši teorija pritaikyta vertinant daugelį Lietuvos apskričių. Šiuo metu svarbu ne tik perskirstyti regionu pajamas, bet ir formuoti naujų statybų, turizmo vystymo, taršos mažinimo, atsinaujinančiosios energetikos nacionalinę politiką pagal Europos Komisijos programą “Vietinio užimtumo skatinimas”. First published online: 10 Feb 2011 Reikšminiai žodžiai: MOORA, proporcinė sistema, ekstreminio taško teorija, regioninis vystymasis, pajamų perskirstymas, darbo jėgos nutekėjima