Model of WNV seropositivity in birds weighing less than 50 grams, based on species ecological traits.

<p>Model of WNV seropositivity in birds weighing less than 50 grams, based on species ecological traits.</p

PRISMA flow diagram for included paper selection (adapted from [28]).

<p>PRISMA flow diagram for included paper selection (adapted from [<a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0185962#pone.0185962.ref028" target="_blank">28</a>]).</p

WNV seroprevalence data in wild birds of Europe and Maghreb, reported in scientific publications between 2000 and 2015.

<p>WNV seroprevalence data in wild birds of Europe and Maghreb, reported in scientific publications between 2000 and 2015.</p

Map of the predicted occurrence of WND cases in administrative districts of the European Union between 2002 and 2014, according to the predicted structural bird-borne risk of WNV circulation and to the human population size (stars: Districts having reported WND cases).

<p>Map of the predicted occurrence of WND cases in administrative districts of the European Union between 2002 and 2014, according to the predicted structural bird-borne risk of WNV circulation and to the human population size (stars: Districts having reported WND cases).</p

Map of the predicted structural bird-borne risk of WNV circulation in Europe: Geographic variations of the probability of high-risk areas (pixel-specific probability of belonging to the 10% pixels with the highest predicted structural bird-borne risk).

<p>Map of the predicted structural bird-borne risk of WNV circulation in Europe: Geographic variations of the probability of high-risk areas (pixel-specific probability of belonging to the 10% pixels with the highest predicted structural bird-borne risk).</p

Weighted values of model parameters for model M3 (direct transmission when viraemic cows calve and residual mosquito population in winter) and an introduction of RVFV on 2007-09-01 (weight: 0.73) or on 2007-10-01 (weight: 0.24).

<p>Weighted values of model parameters for model M3 (direct transmission when viraemic cows calve and residual mosquito population in winter) and an introduction of RVFV on 2007-09-01 (weight: 0.73) or on 2007-10-01 (weight: 0.24).</p

Confidence regions of the weighted parameter values (: direct transmission when viraemic cows calve, : relative abundance of vectors during the dry and cold season, <i>H_v</i>: vector/host ratio).

<p>Confidence regions of the weighted parameter values (: direct transmission when viraemic cows calve, : relative abundance of vectors during the dry and cold season, <i>H_v</i>: vector/host ratio).</p

Graphical representation of the model.

<p>Cattle population is divided into susceptible (<i>S</i>), incubating (<i>E</i>), viraemic (<i>I</i>) and immune (<i>R</i>) individuals in each village. Two populations per village were considered depending on whether or not animals are exposed to the barter practice. Mosquito population is divided into nulliparous (<i>N</i>), parous and non-infected (<i>S</i>), parous and infected, but non-infectious (<i>E</i>, during the extrinsic incubation period), and parous, infected and infectious (<i>I</i>, after the end of the extrinsic incubation period) in each rice field. Full dark arrows represent transition from on state to the other. Full thin arrows represent demographic processus of birth and death specific to both metapopulation. Dotted lines represent infection dynamics. The full description of the parameters can be found in S1 Text. : force of infection due to direct transmission into village v, : force of infection due to vector based transmission into village v, : average force of infection due to vector based transmission into villages accepting the barter into village v (See S1 Text for development of force infection expressions related to cattle exchange practices), : force of infection for mosquitoes of rice field r.</p

Observed seroprevalence in 2009 (left) and difference between observed and predicted seroprevalence in 2009, in the studied villages.

<p>Villages with predicted seroprevalence higher than observed seroprevalence (red cross) were aggregated in the middle of the area where most rice fields are close to several villages. Villages with predicted seroprevalence lower than observed seroprevalence (pink star) were less aggregated. For most villages the differences between predicted and observed seroprevalence were low (triangle).</p

Location of the villages and rice fields in the study area.

<p>The color gradient of the rice field indicates the number of villages at less than 1km. Circular areas around villages have a 1 km radius.</p