3 research outputs found
Magyar Nemzeti Bank: KiszámĂthatatlan idĹ‘k elĹ‘rejelzĂ©se = Magyar Nemzeti Bank: Forecasting unpredictable times
A Covid-válságbĂłl valĂł kilábalás az 1977 Ăłta mĂ©rt legmagasabb növekedĂ©st eredmĂ©nyezte a tavalyi Ă©vben. A gazdaság 2021-ben 7,1 százalĂ©kkal bĹ‘vĂĽlt, a munkaerĹ‘piac az Ă©v vĂ©gĂ©re megközelĂtette a teljes foglalkoztatást, Ăgy összessĂ©gĂ©ben a második világháborĂşt követĹ‘ Ă©vek leggyorsabb kilábalását regisztrálhattuk. A növekedĂ©shez Ă©rdemben hozzájárultak a Magyar Nemzeti Bank Ă©s a kormányzat válságkezelĹ‘ programjai, amelyek a gazdasági szereplĹ‘k szĂ©les körĂ©t támogatták. Emellett a korai, szĂ©les körű hazai átoltottságnak köszönhetĹ‘en a tavaszi gyors gazdasági nyitás is a fogyasztás gyorsabb helyreállását tette lehetĹ‘vĂ©. A kĂĽlsĹ‘ környezetet tekintve a kereslet Ă©s a kĂnálat egyenlĹ‘tlen növekedĂ©se a globális termelĂ©si láncokban, illetve a nyersanyagok piacán sĂşrlĂłdásokat okozott, ami sorozatos költsĂ©gsokkokat eredmĂ©nyezett. A tavaly Ă©v vĂ©gi kedvezĹ‘ gazdasági folyamatok az idei Ă©v elejĂ©n is folytatĂłdtak, Ă©s a hazai gazdaság növekedĂ©si potenciálja erĹ‘s. A gazdasági aktivitás bĹ‘vĂĽlĂ©sĂ©t azonban a következĹ‘ negyedĂ©vekben az orosz–ukrán háborĂş Ă©s a következmĂ©nyekĂ©nt bevezetett szankciĂłk számos csatornán keresztĂĽl lassĂtják. A bizonytalanság nagyon jelentĹ‘s, mivel a háborĂş gazdasági hatásának mĂ©rtĂ©ke erĹ‘sen fĂĽgg a háborĂş Ă©s a szankciĂłs politikák idĹ‘beli lefutásátĂłl. Exportpiacaink Ă©s kivitelĂĽnk számottevĹ‘ lassulását elsĹ‘sorban a kĂĽlkereskedelem Ă©s a nemzetközi termelĂ©si láncok nehĂ©zsĂ©gei okozzák. A vállalati beruházásokat lassĂtja ugyan a magasabb bizonytalanság Ă©s a vállalati működĂ©si költsĂ©gek növekedĂ©se, azonban a beruházási ráta Ăgy is magas szinten marad. A háztartások fogyasztását idĂ©n az emelkedĹ‘ infláciĂł mellett is bĹ‘vĂĽlĹ‘ reálbĂ©rtömeg, illetve a lakossági jövedelmet bĹ‘vĂtĹ‘ kormányzati intĂ©zkedĂ©sek egyaránt növelik. Az energia- Ă©s nyersanyagárak tavalyi növekedĂ©se miatt a hazai vállalatok 2022 elejĂ©n a korábban tapasztaltnál nagyobb mĂ©rtĂ©kben árazták át termĂ©keiket. A háborĂş az energia- Ă©s nyersanyagárak Ăşjabb számottevĹ‘ emelkedĂ©sĂ©vel Ăşjabb jelentĹ‘s költsĂ©gsokkot okozott az infláciĂłban, ami rövid távon tovább emelkedik, Ă©s a csökkenĂ©se is kĂ©sĹ‘bbre tolĂłdik. Arra számĂtunk, hogy az infláciĂłs ráta csökkenĂ©sĂ©nek a kezdete 2022 második felĂ©re tolĂłdik, amennyiben a háborĂş okozta piaci sokk enyhĂĽl, Ă©s a várt nyersanyagár-korrekciĂłbĂłl fakadĂłan mĂ©rsĂ©klĹ‘dhet az infláciĂł. Az ismĂ©telt ársokk kifutását követĹ‘en az árstabilitás elĂ©rĂ©sĂ©ben meghatározĂł szerepe lesz annak, hogy az infláciĂłs várakozásokat az infláciĂłs cĂ©llal összhangban lĂ©vĹ‘ szinten horgonyozzuk. = The recovery from the Covid-19 crisis led to the highest GDP growth rate since 1977 last year. The economy expanded by 7.1 per cent in 2021, and the labour market approached full employment by the end of the year, making it the fastest recovery in the post-World War II years overall. The crisis management programmes of Magyar Nemzeti Bank and the Hungarian government, which supported a wide range of economic actors, contributed significantly to this growth. In addition, the rapid economic opening of lockdowns in the spring allowed for a faster recovery in consumption, thanks to an early and broad-based domestic vaccination. In the external environment, the uneven growth of supply and demand caused frictions in global production chains and commodity markets, leading to a series of cost shocks. The positive economic trends at the end of last year have continued into the beginning of this year, and the domestic economy’s growth potential is strong. However, the expansion of economic activity in the coming quarters will be slowed by the Russian-Ukrainian war and the resulting sanctions through a number of channels. The uncertainty is significant, as the size of the economic impact of the war is highly dependent on the length and the timing of the war and sanctions policies. The significant slowdown in Hungary’s export markets and exports is mainly due to difficulties in foreign trade and international production chains. While business investments are slowed by higher uncertainty and rising business operating costs, the investment rate remains high. Household consumption will be promoted this year both by rising real wages, despite increasing inflation, and by government measures to ramp up household incomes. The surge in energy and raw material prices last year has led domestic companies to reprice their products at the beginning of 2022 at a higher rate than previously. With another substantial jump in energy and commodity prices, the war has caused another significant cost shock to inflation, which will continue to go up in the short term and postpone its decline. We expect the start of the decline in the inflation rate to be delayed to the second half of 2022, as the market shock from the war eases and inflation moderates due to the expected correction in commodity prices
Assessing the sensitivity of inflation to economic activity
A number of academic studies suggest that from the mid-1990s onwards there were changes in the link between inflation and economic activity. However, it remains unclear the extent to which this phenomenon can be ascribed to a change in the structural relationship between inflation and output, as opposed to a change in the size and nature of the shocks hitting the economy. This paper uses a suite of models, such as time-varying VAR techniques, traditional macro models, as well as DSGE models, to investigate, for various European countries as well as for the euro area, the evolution of the link between inflation and resource utilization and its dependence on the nature and size of the shocks. Our analysis suggests that the relationship between inflation and activity has indeed been changing over time, while remaining positive, with the correlation peaking during recessions. Quantitatively, the link between output and inflation is found to be highly dependent on which type of shocks hit the economy: while, in general, all demand shocks to output imply a reaction of inflation of the same sign, the latter will be less pronounced when output fluctuations are driven by supply shocks. In addition, a sharp deceleration of activity, as opposed to a subdued but protracted slowdown, results in a swifter decline in inflation. Inflation exhibits a rather strong persistence, with a negative impact still visible three years after the initial shock. JEL Classification: E31, E32, E37demand shock, inflation response, Macro model, output growth, Phillips curve
Brexit: The end or the beginning of a long road
Abstract
Globalisation and the loosening of credit conditions have led to an increase in
income and wealth inequalities in the developed economies. The 2008–2009 crisis
has forced a deleveraging process, leading to a prolonged recovery due to
further demand cuts. The protracted economic problems and the inadequate
management of economic policy in the EU increased social discontent that may
have eventually contributed to Brexit. The short- and long-run impacts of the
decision are difficult to judge, given that the details of the exit process
cannot yet be known. Currently, there is a consensus among analysts that the
negative economic effects could be greater in the UK in the short term. However,
in the longer term, the UK may benefit from a potentially more flexible economic
policy framework, while socio-political and economic risks are imposed on the
European economy by the secondary effects due to its structural problems and the
uncertain future of its institutional system.
As a small open economy, Hungary highly depends on the economic performance of
its foreign trade partners. We have found that the economic impact of Brexit on
Hungary remains moderate. Among the direct channels, the foreign trade channel
may be the dominant. Meanwhile, the reduction of EU funds and remittances will
affect the Hungarian growth only modestly. Hungary’s vulnerability has improved
substantially since the 2008–2009 crisis. Accordingly, potential second-round
effects of Brexit may remain subdued and be mitigated through substantial room
for manoeuvre for economic policies