Andrade, Omori and Time-to-failure Laws from Thermal Noise in Material Rupture

Using the simplest possible ingredients of a rupture model with thermal fluctuations, we provide an analytical theory of three ubiquitous empirical observations obtained in creep (constant applied stress) experiments: the initial Andrade-like and Omori-like $1/t$ decay of the rate of deformation and of fiber ruptures and the $1/(t_c-t)$ critical time-to-failure behavior of acoustic emissions just prior to the macroscopic rupture. The lifetime of the material is controlled by a thermally activated Arrhenius nucleation process, describing the cross-over between these two regimes. Our results give further credit to the idea proposed by Ciliberto et al. that the tiny thermal fluctuations may actually play an essential role in macroscopic deformation and rupture processes at room temperature. We discover a new re-entrant effect of the lifetime as a function of quenched disorder amplitude.Comment: 4 pages with 1 figur

Bath's law Derived from the Gutenberg-Richter law and from Aftershock Properties

The empirical Bath's law states that the average difference in magnitude between a mainshock and its largest aftershock is 1.2, regardless of the mainshock magnitude. Following Vere-Jones [1969] and Console et al. [2003], we show that the origin of Bath's law is to be found in the selection procedure used to define mainshocks and aftershocks rather than in any difference in the mechanisms controlling the magnitude of the mainshock and of the aftershocks. We use the ETAS model of seismicity, which provides a more realistic model of aftershocks, based on (i) a universal Gutenberg-Richter (GR) law for all earthquakes, and on (ii) the increase of the number of aftershocks with the mainshock magnitude. Using numerical simulations of the ETAS model, we show that this model is in good agreement with Bath's law in a certain range of the model parameters.Comment: major revisions, in press in Geophys. Res. Let

Correlations and invariance of seismicity under renormalization-group transformations

The effect of transformations analogous to those of the real-space renormalization group are analyzed for the temporal occurrence of earthquakes. The distribution of recurrence times turns out to be invariant under such transformations, for which the role of the correlations between the magnitudes and the recurrence times are fundamental. A general form for the distribution is derived imposing only the self-similarity of the process, which also yields a scaling relation between the Gutenberg-Richter b-value, the exponent characterizing the correlations, and the recurrence-time exponent. This approach puts the study of the structure of seismicity in the context of critical phenomena.Comment: Short paper. I'll be grateful to get some feedbac

Anomalous Power Law Distribution of Total Lifetimes of Branching Processes Relevant to Earthquakes

We consider a branching model of triggered seismicity, the ETAS (epidemic-type aftershock sequence) model which assumes that each earthquake can trigger other earthquakes (``aftershocks''). An aftershock sequence results in this model from the cascade of aftershocks of each past earthquake. Due to the large fluctuations of the number of aftershocks triggered directly by any earthquake (``productivity'' or ``fertility''), there is a large variability of the total number of aftershocks from one sequence to another, for the same mainshock magnitude. We study the regime where the distribution of fertilities $\mu$ is characterized by a power law $\sim 1/\mu^{1+\gamma}$ and the bare Omori law for the memory of previous triggering mothers decays slowly as $\sim 1/t^{1+\theta}$, with $0 < \theta <1$ relevant for earthquakes. Using the tool of generating probability functions and a quasistatic approximation which is shown to be exact asymptotically for large durations, we show that the density distribution of total aftershock lifetimes scales as $\sim 1/t^{1+\theta/\gamma}$ when the average branching ratio is critical ($n=1$). The coefficient $1<\gamma = b/\alpha<2$ quantifies the interplay between the exponent $b \approx 1$ of the Gutenberg-Richter magnitude distribution $\sim 10^{-bm}$ and the increase $\sim 10^{\alpha m}$ of the number of aftershocks with the mainshock magnitude $m$ (productivity) with $\alpha \approx 0.8$. More generally, our results apply to any stochastic branching process with a power-law distribution of offsprings per mother and a long memory.Comment: 16 pages + 4 figure

Acoustic Emission Monitoring of the Syracuse Athena Temple: Scale Invariance in the Timing of Ruptures

We perform a comparative statistical analysis between the acoustic-emission time series from the ancient Greek Athena temple in Syracuse and the sequence of nearby earthquakes. We find an apparent association between acoustic-emission bursts and the earthquake occurrence. The waiting-time distributions for acoustic-emission and earthquake time series are described by a unique scaling law indicating self-similarity over a wide range of magnitude scales. This evidence suggests a correlation between the aging process of the temple and the local seismic activit

Universal mean moment rate profiles of earthquake ruptures

Earthquake phenomenology exhibits a number of power law distributions including the Gutenberg-Richter frequency-size statistics and the Omori law for aftershock decay rates. In search for a basic model that renders correct predictions on long spatio-temporal scales, we discuss results associated with a heterogeneous fault with long range stress-transfer interactions. To better understand earthquake dynamics we focus on faults with Gutenberg-Richter like earthquake statistics and develop two universal scaling functions as a stronger test of the theory against observations than mere scaling exponents that have large error bars. Universal shape profiles contain crucial information on the underlying dynamics in a variety of systems. As in magnetic systems, we find that our analysis for earthquakes provides a good overall agreement between theory and observations, but with a potential discrepancy in one particular universal scaling function for moment-rates. The results reveal interesting connections between the physics of vastly different systems with avalanche noise.Comment: 13 pages, 5 figure

"Universal" Distribution of Inter-Earthquake Times Explained

We propose a simple theory for the ``universal'' scaling law previously reported for the distributions of waiting times between earthquakes. It is based on a largely used benchmark model of seismicity, which just assumes no difference in the physics of foreshocks, mainshocks and aftershocks. Our theoretical calculations provide good fits to the data and show that universality is only approximate. We conclude that the distributions of inter-event times do not reveal more information than what is already known from the Gutenberg-Richter and the Omori power laws. Our results reinforces the view that triggering of earthquakes by other earthquakes is a key physical mechanism to understand seismicity.Comment: 4 pages with two figure

Avalanches, Scaling and Coherent Noise

We present a simple model of a dynamical system driven by externally-imposed coherent noise. Although the system never becomes critical in the sense of possessing spatial correlations of arbitrarily long range, it does organize into a stationary state characterized by avalanches with a power-law size distribution. We explain the behavior of the model within a time-averaged approximation, and discuss its potential connection to the dynamics of earthquakes, the Gutenberg-Richter law, and to recent experiments on avalanches in rice piles.Comment: 17 pages, 4 Postscript figures, written in LaTeX using RevTeX and epsfig.st

A model for the distribution of aftershock waiting times

In this work the distribution of inter-occurrence times between earthquakes in aftershock sequences is analyzed and a model based on a non-homogeneous Poisson (NHP) process is proposed to quantify the observed scaling. In this model the generalized Omori's law for the decay of aftershocks is used as a time-dependent rate in the NHP process. The analytically derived distribution of inter-occurrence times is applied to several major aftershock sequences in California to confirm the validity of the proposed hypothesis.Comment: 4 pages, 3 figure