Time for Science-Based National Targets for Environmental Sustainability: An Assessment of Existing Metrics and the ESGAP Framework

Despite the overwhelming scientific evidence on the ongoing degradation of the environment, there is a clear gap between the urgency of the environmental crisis and the policy measures put in place to tackle it. Because of the role of metrics in environmental governance, the way environmental information is translated into metrics is of utmost relevance. In this context, we propose criteria to assesses the suitability of environmental metrics to monitor environmental sustainability at the national level. After assessing well-known environmental metrics such as the Sustainable Development Goals indicators and the Environmental Performance Index, we conclude that countries still lack robust and resonant metrics to monitor environmental sustainability. In order to bridge this metric gap, we present the Environmental Sustainability Gap (ESGAP) framework, which builds on the concepts of strong sustainability, critical natural capital, environmental functions and science-based targets. Different composite indicators are proposed as part of the ESGAP framework. Through these metrics, the framework has the potential to embed strong sustainability thinking and science-based targets in nations in which these concepts are not currently sufficiently reflected in policies

Monitoring the environmental sustainability of countries through the strong environmental sustainability index

Countries still lack adequate metrics to monitor environmental sustainability across a range of relevant environmental and resource issues. The Strong Environmental Sustainability Index (SESI), which is based on the Environmental Sustainability Gap (ESGAP) framework, is intended to fill this gap. SESI is the result of aggregating 21 indicators across different dimensions. Each of the underlying indicators is related to the functions of natural capital and normalised using science-based targets. SESI uses the geometric mean to aggregate in order to reflect the limited substitutability between the functions of natural capital. The results of the index, which is computed for 28 European countries, show that several functions of natural capital are impaired in Europe. Countries tend to perform worse in indicators related to pollution and ecosystem health, compared to indicators that describe the provision of natural resources, and human health and welfare. Because the results are sensitive to assumptions in the normalisation, weighting and aggregation processes, the relevant choices have been aligned with the theoretical underpinnings of the ESGAP framework. SESI responds to the demands of the ‘Beyond GDP’ community on the need for a single environmental sustainability metric that can complement GDP in its (mis-)use as a headline indicator for development

Steel in a circular economy: global implications of a green shift in China

China is increasingly known for its ambitions towards an ‘ecological civilisation’ and a circular economy. Our article assesses the implications of an accelerated shift towards steel recycling in China. Given the relevance of steel for development worldwide as well as its environmental intensity, any such shift is likely to have implications for competitiveness in China and beyond. Recent findings suggest that China could take advantage of an increasing availability of obsolete steel scrap in the coming decades, moving towards more circular, and potentially greener, steel production. We assess such industrial restructuring from an economic perspective and address the competitiveness of China relative to other developing and industrialised regions. The analysis uses a novel global economy-wide modelling framework (ENGAGE-materials) to assess the aggregate and sector-level impacts of different scrap use options in China in the 2019–2030 time frame. The results show moderate GDP gains for China of cumulated USD 589 billion in GDP gains by 2030 despite a replacement of primary steel capacity. A more comprehensive industrial policy mix aimed at improved recycling practices and more adaptive downstream sectors could increase gains to USD 819 billion. The international implications are mixed, with losses for iron ore producers (Australia, Brazil and India) and gains for most developing countries benefiting from lower steel prices. Another result is an increasing demand for coal in electricity production if such a shift wouldn’t be aligned with an accelerated energy transition towards low carbon pathways. We discuss policy implications of such alignment, potential co-benefits, and a need for green international partnerships

Energy use in the global food system

The global food system is a major energy user and a relevant contributor to climate change. To date, the literature on the energy profile of food systems addresses individual countries and/or food products, and therefore a comparable assessment across regions is still missing. This paper uses a global multi‐regional environmentally extended input–output database in combination with newly constructed net energy‐use accounts to provide a production and consumption‐based stock‐take of energy use in the food system across different world regions for the period 2000–2015. Overall, the ratio between energy use in the food system and the economy is slowly decreasing. Likewise, the absolute values point toward a relative decoupling between energy use and food production, as well as to relevant differences in energy types, users, and consumption patterns across world regions. The use of (inefficient) traditional biomass for cooking substantially reduces the expected gap between per capita figures in high‐ and low‐income countries. The variety of energy profiles and the higher exposure to energy security issues compared to the total economy in some regions suggests that interventions in the system should consider the geographical context. Reducing energy use and decarbonizing the supply chains of food products will require a combination of technological measures and behavioral changes in consumption patterns. Interventions should consider the effects beyond the direct effects on energy use, because changing production and consumption patterns in the food system can lead to positive spillovers in the social and environmental dimensions outlined in the Sustainable Development Goals.Industrial EcologyGlobal Challenges (FGGA

A Framework for Modelling Consumption-Based Energy Demand and Emission Pathways

Energy demand in global climate scenarios is typically derived for sectors – such as buildings, transportation, and industry – rather than from underlying services that could drive energy use in all sectors. This limits the potential to model household consumption and lifestyles as mitigation options through their impact on economy-wide energy demand. We present a framework to estimate the economy-wide energy requirements and carbon emissions associated with future household consumption, by linking Industrial Ecology tools and Integrated Assessment Models (IAM). We apply the framework to assess final energy and emission pathways for meeting three essential and energy-intensive dimensions of basic well-being in India: food, housing and mobility. We show, for example, that nutrition-enhancing dietary changes can reduce emissions by a similar amount as meeting future basic mobility in Indian cities with public transportation. The relative impact of energy demand reduction measures compared to decarbonization differs across these services, with housing having the lowest and food the highest. This framework provides complementary insights to those obtained from IAM by considering a broader set of consumption and well-being-related interventions, and illustrating trade-offs between demand and supply-side options in climate stabilization scenarios

EXIOBASE 3: Developing a time series of detailed environmentally extended multi-regional input-output tables

Environmentally extended multiregional input-output (EE MRIO) tables have emerged as a key framework to provide a comprehensive description of the global economy and analyze its effects on the environment. Of the available EE MRIO databases, EXIOBASE stands out as a database compatible with the System of Environmental-Economic Accounting (SEEA) with a high sectorial detail matched with multiple social and environmental satellite accounts. In this paper, we present the latest developments realized with EXIOBASE 3—a time series of EE MRIO tables ranging from 1995 to 2011 for 44 countries (28 EU member plus 16 major economies) and five rest of the world regions. EXIOBASE 3 builds upon the previous versions of EXIOBASE by using rectangular supply-use tables (SUTs) in a 163 industry by 200 products classification as the main building blocks. In order to capture structural changes, economic developments, as repor ted by national statistical agencies, were imposed on the available, disaggregated SUTs from EXIOBASE 2. These initial estimates were further refined by incorporating detailed data on energy, agricultural production, resource extraction, and bilateral trade. EXIOBASE 3 inherits the high level of environmental stressor detail from its precursor, with further improvement in the level of detail for resource extraction. To account for the expansion of the European Union (EU), EXIOBASE 3 was developed with the full EU28 country set (including the new member state Croatia). EXIOBASE 3 provides a unique tool for analyzing the dynamics of environmental pressures of economic activities over time

Quantifying Earth system interactions for sustainable food production via expert elicitation

Several safe boundaries of critical Earth system processes have already been crossed due to human perturbations; not accounting for their interactions may further narrow the safe operating space for humanity. Using expert knowledge elicitation, we explored interactions among seven variables representing Earth system processes relevant to food production, identifying many interactions little explored in Earth system literature. We found that green water and land system change affect other Earth system processes strongly, while land, freshwater and ocean components of biosphere integrity are the most impacted by other Earth system processes, most notably blue water and biogeochemical flows. We also mapped a complex network of mechanisms mediating these interactions and created a future research prioritization scheme based on interaction strengths and existing knowledge gaps. Our study improves the understanding of Earth system interactions, with sustainability implications including improved Earth system modelling and more explicit biophysical limits for future food production

Limits to agricultural land for retaining acceptable levels of local biodiversity

Several studies have proposed maximum allowable areas of cropland (12.6–15.18% of terrestrial area) as environmental sustainability requirements, yet none have so far considered the minimum biodiversity levels required to support ecosystem functioning at acceptable levels. Here, we use a decision tree-based optimization model to estimate the maximum area of cropland and pasture that would meet—or come closest to meeting—the acceptable levels of local biodiversity proposed in the literature (90% local species abundance and 80% local species richness compared with an undisturbed baseline). We model four scenarios under which we vary two key sources of uncertainty: the maximization function and the potential of secondary vegetation to maintain biodiversity. The model finds that a maximum of 4.62–11.17% of the global ice-free land can be allocated to cropland (and 7.86–15.67% to pasture) to meet these biodiversity constraints—a lower level than was suggested in previous studies. The results are very sensitive to the minimum acceptable biodiversity values and the biodiversity response factors used, but the size of the disparity between current cropland area and our results suggests that actions to limit or reduce the area dedicated to agriculture should feature more prominently in policy discussions